Women's Olympic 5,000 Official Discussion Thread - Who has the edge Sifan Hassan or Gudaf Tsegay?

This a hard one to pick. Tsegay impressed the heck out of me with her 14:13 win. And not because of time, that was impressive too. What impressed me was her ability to recover. She was out in 9:02-9:05 at 3200 (hard to see line in video). A Cub bear then jumped on her back. She was able to keep contact, recover and then kick for the win. I don’t recall ever seeing a runner recover like that in a major race.

If Tsegay goes out in 9:00, can Hassan close out the final four laps in 4:17 , like she did in the Doha 10k. If she can, hello 13:40’s for women.

1. Hassan

2. Tsegay

3. Obiri

Gudaf, easy.

If Hassan runs 1500, Tsegay wins. If not, I trust Hassan’s crazy last 1500m but Tsegay has a lot going for her. 14:01 altitude conversion, 14:13 actual PR, 3:53 indoors…if they’re both fresh it will be a fantastic race.

This is the one event where to me G, S, and B are obvious. Hassan, Obiri, Tsegay in that order.

1. Sifan Hassan 14:29.10

2. Gudaf Tsegay 14:29.57

3. Hellen Obiri 14:31.56

4. Agnes Tirop 14:33.08

5. Ejgayehu Taye 14:34.17

6. Senbere Teferi 14:34.32

7. Lilian Rengeruk 14:36.29

8. Eilish McColgan 14:38.86

9. Karissa Schweizer 14:39.09

10. Elise Cranny 14:42.98

11. Yasemin Can 14:43.30

12. Karoline Grovdal 14:46.19

13. Rachel Schneider 14:48.66

14. Amy-Eloise Markovc 15:01.22

15. Jessica Judd 15:03.85

1K - Senbere Teferi - 2:58.56

2K - Agnes Tirop - 5:58.59 (3:00.03)

3K - Lilian Rengeruk - 8:55.23 (2:56.64)

4K - Sifan Hassan - 11:48.34 (2:53.11)

5K - Sifan Hassan - 14:29.10 (2:40.76)

These were my predictions several days ago, in a world in which Hassan does not contest the 1500.

For the sake of this thread, I feel like Obiri has done enough in her career to be mentioned alongside Hassan and Tsegay in this prompt. Just look at her “Honours” page:

https://worldathletics.org/athletes/kenya/hellen-obiri-14424921

One of the best ever in the event.

If Sifan come back to her sense, and only does the 5k and 10k, she will win the 5k. Otherwise, if she goes for the treble, Gudaf Tsegaye will win the race.

Please Sifan just do the 5k and 10k, and get your golds.

This your only chance to win an Olympic gold.

lkbc wrote:

If Sifan come back to her sense, and only does the 5k and 10k, she will win the 5k. Otherwise, if she goes for the treble, Gudaf Tsegaye will win the race.

Please Sifan just do the 5k and 10k, and get your golds.

This your only chance to win an Olympic gold.

She’ll only be 31 in three years, so it’s entirely possible she’ll still be in contention.

When is it?

Most people here don't know who Lilian kasait Rengeruk from Kenya is... Continue underrating .she's the one who beat Obiri at the Kenyan trials. She's also lethal... Let's wait & see who'll own the rights....

mbai haule wrote:

Most people here don't know who Lilian kasait Rengeruk from Kenya is... Continue underrating .she's the one who beat Obiri at the Kenyan trials. She's also lethal... Let's wait & see who'll own the rights....

Yes, I don't expect Obiri to medal in the 5,000. She's looked somewhat ragged in it. Even her last win on the DL was a close one to the Ethiopian 4th-placer I believe? I think Obiri is better suited for 10,000 right now.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

mbai haule wrote:

Most people here don't know who Lilian kasait Rengeruk from Kenya is... Continue underrating .she's the one who beat Obiri at the Kenyan trials. She's also lethal... Let's wait & see who'll own the rights....

Yes, I don't expect Obiri to medal in the 5,000. She's looked somewhat ragged in it. Even her last win on the DL was a close one to the Ethiopian 4th-placer I believe? I think Obiri is better suited for 10,000 right now.

That's what we thought in 2019 after she won World XC earlier that year, but then had a terrible 10k and doubled back to dominate the 5k. She's never perfect during the regular season. At the trials the 10k was 2nd right? She'll be fresh for the 5k here. It's going to be a classic between her, Hassan, and Tsegay. I think it will be Hassan, Obiri, then Tsegay.

^trials the 5k was second right?

Aussiestatman wrote:

This is the one event where to me G, S, and B are obvious. Hassan, Obiri, Tsegay in that order.

and the other finalists?

for me: Tirop, Teferi [Eth], Taye, Rengeruk, Schweizer, Y.Can, seccafien, 20yo Hironaka, and Prisca Chesang from heat 1. Just 3 from the other heat: McColgan, Grovdal, and a 19yo Eritrean.

Tsegay reminds me of Genzebe Dibaba, too inconsistent and runs well indoors and early in the season and then loses form.

So Hassan for the win and an improving and gaining in confidence McColgan for a surprise medal.

mbai haule wrote:

Most people here don't know who Lilian kasait Rengeruk from Kenya is... Continue underrating .she's the one who beat Obiri at the Kenyan trials. She's also lethal... Let's wait & see who'll own the rights....

A win at trials is great, but top two go to the Olympics. Will Obiri be more determined when going for gold?

9r68fgyoib;kj wrote:

Tsegay reminds me of Genzebe Dibaba, too inconsistent and runs well indoors and early in the season and then loses form.

So Hassan for the win and an improving and gaining in confidence McColgan for a surprise medal.

There’s not much basis for your Tsegay/Dibaba comparison is there? I mean, prior to her breakout 2021 indoor season, Tsegay’s best result by far was her bronze medal at the Doha WCs in 3:54.38, a 3 second PB—that’s showing up when it counts. Outdoors this season she’s run what, 3:54.01/14:13/29:39, winning all 3? Last month at the Ethiopian Trials she was gunning for the WR with aggressive mid-race splits, started suffering from the effort but was able to regroup and still win in 14:13; a race of that description had never been run before. Don’t discount Tsegay.

Anyway I actually came here just to gripe about how Schweizer got screwed over by the heat assignments. She could be the best American currently and the only one not to make the final.

Tirop, Rengeruk, Taye, Teferi, and Hassan are the presumptive auto-Qs from heat 1, Schweizer’s heat. If heat 2 is smart, they have the advantage of knowing what time they need to q on time and could get 9-10 through.

Hassan Heat 1 - straight to the back. Karissa mid pack.

3:01 first K. Pretty fast considering dew point in the mid to upper 70s.