Tokyo Olympic Predictions Round 127

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

JWH you have way overrated the Florence performance.

He also forgot that Kiplimo beat Ingerbrigsten and Barega last year and run 12:48 in the 5000m one year before.

Unless Kiplimo is in a low form period (this could happens for diverse reasons) he is the big deal with Wale in the 5000m.

Katir made an error of choice, he should have opted for the 1500m where he could have an almost sure silver medal. I fear he dont have the endurance of the Ethiopians in the 5000m.

Concupiscurd wrote:

Very good picks but you seem to discount or miss entirely Rose Mary Almanza who just ran 1:56.28 in Stockholm.

Well more recently she finished last in Monaco. And she ran sub-2 in 2012, ‘14, ‘15, ‘16, ‘17, ‘19 & ‘20, including 1:57 in 2015, but has never made a global final. So yes, I’ve chosen to discount her until she proves me wrong.

Passant wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

JWH you have way overrated the Florence performance.

He also forgot that Kiplimo beat Ingerbrigsten and Barega last year and run 12:48 in the 5000m one year before.

Yeah I “ forgot” 🙄

The 12:48 was last year too btw, unless I’m just misunderstanding your English.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Also Simiyu runs 12:55 just losing to Kiplimo after 13:0x at altitude and doesn’t even make the final? Yes he’s somewhat green but 1st and 2nd in the last 2 Kenyan trials, some XC/road success, guy can flat-out run…

As Aussie Statman pointed out, I did include your boy Simiyu. As for Jakob’s 5,000m prospects, or the “value” of his run in Florence, we’ll just have to disagree and wait for time to pass.

Gotcha good catch. I guess JWH is very down on the Kenyans. I think this year might be a bit of a return to form…

Fair enough. Will he run the 5 though?

Cheptegei will win double gold.

Remember how Kiplimo beat him all xc season in 2019 until the championships. Cheptegei in 26:22 and 12:57 with a 7:30 final 3k.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Fair enough. Will he run the 5 though?

You’ll probably wind up correct (he won’t), but I hope that he does.

I think with Jakob Ingebrigtsen you get a strange division between people who say he’s bound for 3:24/12:30 WRs, and those who dismiss him, unable to believe he could really beat the best of East Africa. I’m not saying you fall in the latter camp, THOUGHTSLEADER, but maybe you lean that way. His 5k potential seems incredible. European champion at 5k while still 17 years old. 13:02 with a 53.6 last lap to barely lose to Gebrhiwet while still 18 years old, making Kimeli, McSweyn and Rhonex look like scrubs. 13:02 a month later for 5th at the WCs, crumbling in the final 100 after making a bid for the win with 300 to go. 7:27.05 for 3k last summer (still 19, mind you), and then the big 12:48 win this season over the likes of Ahmed (WC bronze, recent 12:47) and Cheptegei (friggin’ Cheptegei). Anyone dismissing Jakob Ingebrigtsen’s chances in a 5k race at this point isn’t reading the signs at face value. Not saying he’s a lock vs. guys like Kiplimo or Wale, but I’m insisting he’s a defensible pick.

And I’ve always rooted against him, for whatever reason.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

No can do muchacho. 12:48 and 3:28 make him a pretty good little athlete.

This obviously date of this year (?!)

+ a performance made by pace.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

..., I’m just slightly concerned that he hasn’t raced in ~7 weeks so I hedged my bets on some kind of injury.

This is what I call the subconscient bias (obviously you were talking about you Jacob).

Now you understand my bad English?

Passant wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

No can do muchacho. 12:48 and 3:28 make him a pretty good little athlete.

This obviously date of this year (?!)

+ a performance made by pace.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

..., I’m just slightly concerned that he hasn’t raced in ~7 weeks so I hedged my bets on some kind of injury.

This is what I call the subconscient bias (obviously you were talking about you Jacob).

Now you understand my bad English?

No, it seriously needs work.

I was talking about Oliver Hoare not racing in 7 weeks.

you guys are all forgetting what will really happen in the 5000m.

newsflash:

ethiopia calls in their gem by the name of kenenisa bekele into the 5000m and he drops a 12:29 with the miracle shoes that the ugandan doper used to steal the wr. jakob will cry and kenya/uganda will go home devastated.

JWH I think he has huge potential at the 5,000 to be clear. But I don’t think 12:48 the way he ran it was that special just yet. I think Wale, Barega, Kejelcha, Kiplimo, Cheptegei and even Kimeli\Katir perhaps will be in 12:39 shape or faster by Tokyo. It’s a stronger event so my notion is that Jakob hasn’t adjusted his training accordingly just yet to beat the East Africans. Nor does he have the 52-second last lap explosion that could beat their superior overall fitness. At 1500 he’s clear no. 2 and with a huge strength advantage that I think will get him silver if he pushes hard. In future years if he targets the 5k/10k and puts is some huge training at altitude I think he can win gold potentially.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

Men’s 5,000

1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 12:51.66

2. Jacob Kiplimo 12:51.85

3. Getnet Wale 12:52.27

4. Mohammed Ahmed 12:52.35

5. Mohamed Katir 12:53.14

6. Justyn Knight 12:53.32

7. Joshua Cheptegei 12:54.40

8. Paul Chelimo 12:57.44

9. Grant Fisher 12:57.54

10. Daniel Ebenyo 12:57.88

11. Nicholas Kimeli 12:59.36

12. Nibret Melak 13:03.61

13. Woody Kincaid 13:04.12

14. Jimmy Gressier 13:09.73

15. Birhanu Balew 13:11.96

After Katir’s nifty 7:27 in Gateshead, and given the likelihood or lack thereof that J. Ingebrigtsen will even compete in the 5k, I’m starting to think the Moham(m)eds will take the day more so than the Jac/kobs.

We could be in for a Katir gold, which I’m sure will be a LetsRun favorite.

Right now, Kiplimo, Wale, Ahmed, Katir, and Cheptegei are the big 5 favorites, with Ingebrigtsen a big question mark. I could imagine others like Knight or maybe Kimeli sneaking in for the bronze, but not the gold.

in the women's 10k, do you think koko and Niiya may surprise us with PB's?

so Kiplimo, ahmed, katir for the medals?

Aussiestatman wrote:

John Wesley Harding wrote:

After Katir’s nifty 7:27 in Gateshead, and given the likelihood or lack thereof that J. Ingebrigtsen will even compete in the 5k, I’m starting to think the Moham(m)eds will take the day more so than the Jac/kobs.

We could be in for a Katir gold, which I’m sure will be a LetsRun favorite.

Right now, Kiplimo, Wale, Ahmed, Katir, and Cheptegei are the big 5 favorites, with Ingebrigtsen a big question mark. I could imagine others like Knight or maybe Kimeli sneaking in for the bronze, but not the gold.

so Kiplimo, ahmed, katir for the medals?

Add Cheptegei to the list and there’s a very good chance the medals come from those four.

Katir gold followed by the Ugandans might be the easiest way to envision it at this point.

My boy Wale really disappointed.

Several super exciting races just around the corner.