Runningart2004 wrote:
Sadly no Cheruiyot this year.
NOR, GBR, KEN, ETH....will all bring a faster 1500m team than the US. AUS even has a faster team.
Unless they go stupid again like in 2016 when Centro won.....the winning time will be 3:33-34. The heats and semis will be loaded with guys much faster than ours. 2 will be left hanging. 1 will be in the final. My money is on Centro in the final but out of the medals.
So you listed 4 countries. Ethiopia and Kenya have teams filled with guys with mediocre PBs 3:32 or slower (aside from Tefera), and zero championship credentials.
Ethiopia's fastest guy Samuel Tefera, a time trial king of sorts, has failed to make it out of the semi and then even in a wavelight race lost to two guys at the recent Trials owing to his characteristically mediocre kick. Sorry I don't have much confidence in him or them. His teammates showed decent form to beat him but the splits were unremarkable and Ethiopia hasn't nabbed a medal in the 1500 in years.
For Kenya we have 1 complete unknown in second place. A known mediocrity (3:33-3:35 in European races, no team berths), Simotwo, until this past race won. Is he for real? Or was this just the product of Kenya's two best (Manangoi, Tim) being injured/out, and two guys in Kipsang and the other running out of the gas in the last 100. Kipsang has had a good season but got smoked vs. Wightman. His PB is 3:32.68, and he has no major experience.
Norway has Jakob I. and even with him getting sick yes I favor him to win. Filip, though, has looked mediocre to terrible since Monaco of 2019. We'll see if he's turned the page soon, but if he races like he has since that race his form would've had him in 6th or 7th at the US Trials. They don't have a third runner.
Great Britain undoubtedly has Wightman and Kerr. They're both quite good, but I'm not sure why I'd favor them over a healthy and in-good-form Centro. The 51.2 last lap in a 3:40 race was solid. Their performances were solid in Doha. It was a little bit disappointing that they both lost to an aging Lewandowski and fading Jakob (especially for Wightman). I don't think he is a step above despite a 3:29.4 PB because it was a drag race PB . Yes, I give them both the edge this year on Hocker. To Centro, no. He's proven he can win medals, which they have not.
Australia, next. McSweyn is a game competitor but his finish is just not very good. He is strong and tough, but can't match what Centro and Hocker can do in a non-time trial situation. I think him and Nuguse in an unpaced race would be a toss-up. You might scoff at that, but McSweyn couldn't beat Jye Edwards in their Championships. Worse, I don't think he made it as hard for him to win as Nuguse did vs. Hocker. But I don't want to crap on him he's a great runner, just I think is better suited to medal in a 5,000 if he can figure out the distance. Edwards is a pretty big unknown, but we'll know more after his racing in Europe. Oli Hoare is strong as heck, but he reminds me a lot of McSweyn at this point. I have questions about his closing speed. Again, strong squad but can any of these finish a race like Centro or Hocker. Dubious to me.