Anyone besides me getting less impressed by Kessler's 3:34, two guys who can't even make it to NCAAs just ran 3:37

If you put high school Alan Webb in that race against Kessler with current shoe technology, they finish with .5 seconds of each other. Webb was almost 2 seconds faster in the 800 than Kessler.

Purrwegian wrote:

running2begood wrote:

you’re such a moron. kessler still ran faster than any college kid has run IN HISTORY. Faster than cooper teare, faster than teare, faster than nuguse.

When 17, Jakob Ingebrigtsen was 3.14 seconds faster than Hobbs, so your definition of “College Kid” is clearly limited to “American college kid competing in the USA”.

The season has just begun.

Give Ryun 4 seconds for the shoes, 6 seconds for the tracks, 5 seconds for the PEDs, 3 seconds for the pacers. Ryun easily runs 3:33 mile and 3:15 1500. Give Ryun what centro has and Ryun finishes over a straight away ahead.

The Dirty Duck wrote:

Time for a recap. Hobbs Kessler is less impressive than you think, because:

1. His spikes are amazing

2. He had more opportunities to run 3:34 than Webb did

3. He trains with pros sometimes

4. He wasant on national TV like Webb

5. It wasn't windy

6. Lots of people got PBs in the race

7. Usain Bolt was faster

8. There are college guys running 3:37 who didn't make the NCAA finals

Laughable. Give me independent evidence, not from Nike, that shows that Dragonflies are superior to other track shoes. No such evidence exists. It’s all anecdotal heresay, not valid or reliable. Even on the roads where Next% has proven to be a gods shoe for many people, there’s just as much evidence to explain the difference with belief as much as any actual physical advantage. If I can convince you and you believe that Dragonflies are the fastest track shoe ever, 90% of the people who believe that will run faster no matter what.

aztec the moronic wrote:

This is a DUMB take. Are you saying NCAA coaches are so STUPID that they needed a pandemic in order to make their runners faster? If anything, the pandemic is hurting them because many athletes had cross country championships 2 days after their indoor track championships, and now 2.5 months later they have outdoor track championships then a week after that they have the Olympic Trials. How is that better than what they had before?

Pro times are significantly faster this year. Here is what 3:37.00 would rank each year:

2021 - 18th (not even close to the end of the year, as most top times come from the summer)

2020 - 9th

2019 - 9th

2018 - 11th

2017 - 13th

2016 - 14th

2015 - 15th

2014 - 9th

So I see this and my first question is "hmmm? I wonder what 3:37 would get you in 2013?" Lol 18th - but he only went back to 2014 because then his point wouldn't look as good would it. What about 2012? 19th.

FYI I think the spikes help, but you're making a pretty trash argument based off a tiny sample size (one outdoor season in one country), with massive confounding variables (double whammy of pandemic and an Olympic year), using selectively chosen evidence (skipping out the two highest years of the past 10).

Again - I agree with the principle you're putting forward, but the way you're making your point makes it seem you care less about getting to the truth of the matter and more just you've picked a side and now you want to win an argument.

And bringing it back to Kessler - the spikes would make everyone faster. Yet here he is being faster than anyone in NCAA history, beating established pros, and halfway through the season sitting in the top 20 fastest in the world. Or are people going to make the unprovable argument that he is somehow the uber-hyper-mega responder to the spike?

This is a strong counter to the spikes = game changer argument. Lots of Americans running fast times this year, but the gap to the top has closed; the top guys haven't shot away. Engels has cut down his PB by like 0.4s. Centrowitz is looking good, but doesn't look like he's about to break 3:30. Josh Thompson was the third fastest American in 2019 with his PB of 3:35.01. He's running under a second away from his PR this year but his 3:35.88 is only the tenth best. Looking globally - how come guys like Tim Cheruiyot aren't running 3:25?

Ultimately - posters like the above and Rojo need to stop making lazy arguments. Also Kessler is legit.

What would be laughable is watching everyone freak out if they got banned. Or if only the very top athletes had access to them. Hi-larious! People don’t wave off free spikes in favor of spikes they have to shell out $150 for on a whim. No worries, I just tell people I ran 20 seconds faster in the 10k than my actual pr. Track is so unpopular that they really don’t know the difference anyways.

Occams Razor my friend. You think all these runners with different coaches and training regimens are suddenly magically running faster collectively? Or is it the simple fact that they are all in super shoes? Rojo is correct. As the old Nike commercial said, Gotta be the shoes.

xcfan8967 wrote:

Jesus christ you are such a tool Rojo. Nobody can run a good race anymore without you immediately ranting about super spikes and how unimpressive their run actually is. Cranky douchebag.

You're right, but this guy's post is even WORSE because he INCLUDES NCAA times within this total. This obviously supports the fact that pro times are no quicker than average, and the NCAA times are faster due to pandemic related effects.

If you remove the NCAA times (and Kessler) then you only have 13 pros at 3:37 or faster. Which is not abnormal.

` wrote:

You're right, but this guy's post is even WORSE because he INCLUDES NCAA times within this total. This obviously supports the fact that pro times are no quicker than average, and the NCAA times are faster due to pandemic related effects.

If you remove the NCAA times (and Kessler) then you only have 13 pros at 3:37 or faster. Which is not abnormal.

Why would you remove the NCAA times? Your argument only works when looking at half the data points. Many pros can't wear the super shoes do to their contracts, most pro fast times come over the summer in European races (or at the Olympic Trials). Look at men's 2013 1500 list for USA. 7 of the top 12 times came from ONE RACE in Belgium on July 6th. 15 of the top 16 performances came in July or later.

Lets look at the women and a time of 4:07.00

2021 - 19th (without Houlihan, Rowbury, Simpson, Quigley, Schneider, and Schweitzer who haven't run it yet) and the year isn't close to over yet

2020 - 8th

2019 - 20th

2018 - 15th

2017 - 14th

2016 - 15th

2015 - 16th

2014 - 11th

2013 - 13th

2012 - 10th

2011 - 7th

2010 - 8th

2009 - 8th

2008 - 6th

This is why no one gives a shxt about t&f!

The cofounder of one of the only places on the internet for running.... is basically devaluing one of the biggest stories in American distance running in 20 yrs!

Webb breaks ryuns record:

Has tremendous advantages over Ryun. Track tech, shoes, training, etc. (not to mention the race itself!)

Webb does the national media circuit, front page of this site for weeks, magazines, the whole shebang

Webb is celebrated.

In contrast

Kessler breaks Webbs record:

The announcers barely know he’s in the race, and acknowledge his feat as a secondary thought.

No media circuit, and a skeptical blurb on the front page of this site for a couple days!

The worst part is, no matter the sport... everyone loves a young phenom. Yet, here we are with an amazing story that should generate publicity and crickets.

The reaction to Kesslers performance really clarifies where distance running is.

It’s dead!

You remove NCAA times because they are not professionals.

My assertion is that NCAA times are inflated through a different mechanism (pandemic changing their racing and training structure), and that professional times have not improved in any meaningful way. This is just a fact (so far). Only 13 pros are faster than 3:37 this year, which as you pointed out is in line with other years.

The fact that more NCAA kids are running faster is due to the pandemic. Pros changed very little in terms of their training, because they didn't have school or XC to deal with anyway. You including a hidden variable in your data when you include NCAA kids. This is stats 101.

Your women's times line up pretty well with the last few years as well (especially considering half of those other women you listed likely won't be running sub 4:07 anyway).

The times are coming earlier because the Olympics are EARLIER this year. About 3 weeks earlier, in fact. The trials is only in two weeks. I'd be surprised if we see many faster American pro times at this point.

Ryun raced on both cinder and synthetic yet he never ran faster than he did on cinder. Same with Clarke. Clarke set both his 5k and 10k PRs on cinder despite having raced on both. Synthetic was around for many years before his 10,000 WR was broken. And when it was finally broken, years after synthetic had been introduced, it was broken by 1 SECOND. There is no significant advantage to running on synthetic compared to cinder otherwise all distance WR would had been immediately obliterated in the same fashion Cheptegei obliterated the 5 and 10 WRs…oh, wait. Aside from EVA foam that didn’t come along until the 70s, the shoes they were using in the 60s and 70s were the same basic technology they were using in the 80s, 90s, and 2000s.

There’s no doubt that Ryun would run faster if he was racing today, but it wouldn’t be because he’s running on a synthetic track.

The most significant technology advancement in the history of t&f (aside from peds) are nike’s fun new shoes. Time will tell. Let’s look at the data at the end of the year and it will overwhelmingly show that the shoes are working.

The biggest reasons most NCAA times are faster this year is due to the shoes and there are a lot more 5th and 6th year seniors using their eligibility.

Most teams actually had a very similar training schedule to previous years. They still had fall racing seasons because that's what they are used to. ACC, one of the best distance conferences, had their XC championships in the fall. Many runners skipped indoor to run cross country in March. Are you arguing peaking for a 10k/6k in March is helping them run faster in the 1500m just 2 months later in May?

Those I listed likely will run sub 4:07 this year (if healthy). That would put us at 25 sub 4:07 this year, a full 10 more sub 4:07 than the 2016 Olympic cycle. We haven't even had the NCAA championships yet, and there are going to be other fast races later this summer too.

Houlihan - 3:54 PR

Rowbury - 3:56

Simpson - 3:57

Quigley - 4:03

Schneider - 4:02

Schweitzer - 4:00

Yes, 5th and 6th year seniors is another reason for faster times.

Those fall conference XC races were a joke. Nobody was peaking for those, and not every conference did them.

And yes, in fact, running extensive base mileage for 11ish months, running a 10k in March, then sharpening for 2 months is an incredible way to get very fit in the 1500. These kids had 11 months of base training with barely any real races. That's a huge well to tap into, and they remained injury free for an extensive period of time. Add in lower stress and class commitments due to online school, and you have college kids training like pros.

I can tell you, I was a 13:55 guy in college a couple decades ago (which I know is pretty mediocre), but I would be so wrecked from the end of XC season to the end of outdoor track. I would have run a lot faster I'm sure if I didn't have class and was able to train all the way through XC season and most of the indoor season.

The fact that you're adding in people who haven't raced those times yet just weakens your argument. Quigley would be unlikely to run faster than 4:07 this year, and I doubt Schweitzer will run a 1500. Simpson only ran 4:10 this year. She's likely not running another 1500. Just stick to the results we already have.

Again, this season is ending MUCH earlier than previous seasons, so it's not weird that these fast times are coming earlier too. The trials are in two weeks!

toomanyspikes wrote:

In 5years, 10years, how do you think everyone will look back on your childish disrespect for Kessler's incredible performance? F%&K - give him 4 SECONDS for "the shoes" and he still beats Webb's 3:53 split. We thought 3:53 was untouchable!

and

OhioBuff wrote:

Are you on crack? This has gotta be one of the worst takes I’ve ever seen on this website. You’re not impressed by a high schooler running 3:34 because guys in the NCAA are running 3:37? If this is clickbait it’s disappointing and if this is your actual opinion then that’s sad.

Hello everyone. I've been busy with family today and didn't realize there were 8 pages of threads from people who clearly don't know how to read posting things.

I NEVER SAID I WASN'T IMPRESSED. I never disrespected him. I started this thread by stating he was a SUPREME talent. I just asked a question if anyone else besides me was less impressed than they were before? It's the type of question you'd ask a buddy on a long run. Since I don't run long any more and don't see buddies due to Covid, i posted it here.

People act like I got a megaphone and went to his house and told him he sucked.

On Sunday, due to the shoes, I viewed Kessler's 3:51 (3:34) at best equal to Webb's, and I was leaning towards Webb having the edge. Now I feel more confident in that take.

My God people. I printed up tshirts hyping Hocker. On the podcast this week, I refused to pick who is better Hocker or Kessler as i think they both are amazing and yet somehow people say I'm not impressed.

Kessler's great - the question is how great.

aztec the moronic wrote:

Calm down. He said LESS impressed, he didn't say he is no longer impressed. He said he still thinks Kessler is a SUPREME talent.

But when random nobody's in the NCAA are running 3:37 it makes 3:34 seem less insane. This is a FACT. Centro only ran 3:36.92 in college and he is an Olympic Gold Medalist. There have already been 9 NCAA performances THIS YEAR faster than Centro ever ran.

There is CLEARLY something going on with the shoes. Times don't mean what they did even just 5 years ago.

^^^^ Nailed it. Glad we have someone smart on here still.

Rojo, do you realize that the data does not yet support your claim about the shoes?

zcxvzxcv wrote:

In 2015, two Oregon guys who didn't make NCAA's or did poorly on Oregon went out and ran 3:36-38 right after the season as well. Alexander even beat Cheserek that day.

3:37 isn't that unexpected for them. Here it is:

Colby Alexander 2015 3:36.56 Portland, OR (USA) 02 JUL 2015 (pr before that year was 3:41)

Edward Cheserek 2015 3:37.08 Portland, OR (USA) 02 JUL 2015

Daniel Winn 2015 3:37.56 Portland, OR (USA) 02 JUL 2015 (pr before that year was 3:42.95)

So, two guys who didn't make NCAA's running 3:36-37 isn't that unusual at this time of year.

Another good post that goes against what I was thinking. I literally saw the result, posted what popped into my head and the Internet freaked out while I spent time with my family i have barely seen since Covid.

DC Wonk wrote:

[Give me independent evidence, not from Nike, that shows that Dragonflies are superior to other track shoes. .

Does the fact that Brooks and On etc are letting their athletes race in them mean anything to you? I'm sure that companies dropping millions on pro teams are just randomly letting their athletes where other company's spikes for no reason.

ada maya wrote:

3/10 rojo because you have generated a lot of responses.

Kessler broke the NCAA best ever, and he's not even in college yet.

EOS

It's a big deal.

You make a good point from a logical standpoint. Kessler has run faster than Nuguse, etc. But that's why I said he was a SUPREME talent.

. But he hasn't run faster than what people in college have run. He's run faster than what TFN decided counted as a record. TFN randomly decided summer pro-time trial meets meets don't count. Teare ran 3:50 in the mile THIS YEAR. He's never even run the 1500 or mile at NCAAs. 3:50 mile> 3:34 1600.

But yes the fact that he's as good as some super studly collegians is impressive. I never said it wasn't.