Super spikes didn’t change that much

No of course this particular case doesn't serve as an universal proof, but it is right in that they make an impact starting in the 1500m. I'd say 0-3s 1500m, 5-10s 5000m and 10-20s 10k isn't unfair rough numbers until we have studies.

20s ????? Please tell me this is satire that’s the difference between a world record and the average Kenyan hopping in a diamond league meet

Let's take a look at the data:

5000m: 1st, 25th, 50th fastest NCAA time

2021 13:19-13:36-13:45 (so far)

2019 13:25 - 13:44 -13:54

2018 13:18 - 13:42 - 13:52

2017 13:17 - 13:49 - 13:55

2016 13:24 - 13:48 - 13:54

2015 13:20 - 13:50 - 13:54

2014 13:26 - 13:48 - 13:56

I could go on, but I think this illustrates the point that 2021 was a much faster year in general than other years. Sure, some outliers at the top have run faster in other years, the field in general is a good 5-10 seconds faster for positions 25 and 50. This is probably partly attributable to better training+recovery, because of online school, but also the new spikes.

TFRRS is slow so I don't feel like doing this again for the 10k, but I figure the numbers would line up

lke_4:25 wrote:

20s ????? Please tell me this is satire that’s the difference between a world record and the average Kenyan hopping in a diamond league meet

Just for you, here are some NCAA 10 000m times, again 1st - 25th - 50th

2021: 27:47 - 28:41 - 29:03

2019: 28:11 - 28:55 - 29:13

2018: 28:04 - 29:08 - 29:19

2017: 28:04 - 28:58 - 29:21

So again, times in 2021 are a good bit faster. Somewhere around 10-20s faster in 2021.

SuperSpike_thereal1.... JASARI

Jasari is Swahili for FEARLESS

https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Jnjc2yeSf60/Tc-2QY-1dJI/AAAAAAAAGk8/8xGXLgEGICo/s1600/Daniel_Komen.jpg

https://media.gettyimages.com/photos/gabe-jennings-of-the-us-celebrates-after-winning-the-mens-1500-meters-picture-id951080704?s=2048x2048

https://alchetron.com/cdn/seneca-lassiter-3f16f735-f38a-4680-96d3-a5f8bfb3548-resize-750.jpeg

1500/5Kfan wrote:

Rojo put up a ... 10k ... faster than ... 2 years ago is far from hard evidence that super spikes are making a huge difference....

DUDE - are AREN'T making ANY sense !

The scientific method starts with observations (or derived from first principles / equations), then hypotheses are formed, and tested via controlled experiments.

All Rojo did was make observations: times are faster in 2021. He equates a hypothesis that Superspikes are responsible with a conclusion.

(1) Superspikes are a plausible hypothesis based on anecdotal evidence. To test would require isolating two similar populations of runners - age and performances with near identical means, medians and standard deviations - that now have superspikes and those that do not.

Alternative hypotheses are (2) there are more people in the population given the extra year of eligibility. This is extremely important when working with ordered lists. The 2021 population is biased. To test the impact of this, I'd remove all 5th and 6th year performers from all years data sets. This would create more comparable populations and would allow one to visualize the impact of those extra persons too.

(3) The difference in training / fewer competitions / online school. This is difficult to test outside of a large, multi-year controlled study.