Is the stock market due for a correction?

I think there will be a market crash on 10/29/29.

Bythebay12 wrote:

Stock market to gdp has never been higher in the history of the stock market. So are we in a bubble? Yes. Does that mean we are due for a correction? Probably, but when it will happen is anyone’s guess. It could be that the stock market will continue to go up due to asset inflation from unprecedented monetary supply increase. It could also violently crash due to a black swan event and everyone pulling out their highly leveraged positions (margin lending is also at all time highs). My 2 cents are to own no bonds, cash isn’t good, the stock market has some upside potential with good potential for a correction, and commodities and crypto (if crypto’s your thing) are a good hedge, along with real estate. Not an easy time to allocate

This is solid advice for letsrun although I don't like Crypto. Inflation is absolutely here and it is here for a while with the US continuing to blow money out the door and a lot of people not working. Not to mention our $80 billion and growing monthly trade deficits. Will there be a crash? Probably at some point, but that could be tomorrow or 2 years from now. After Greenspan's infamous irrational exuberance comment, the dot com era kept bubbling for several more years. Understand the FED has the markets back, and the US governments back, they need to keep rates low or this whole thing blows up.

Agreed, do not hold bonds, debt priced in dollars will become of lesser value in a an inflationary period. The commodities are a good play. I think playing that strategically with what the US government will do as far as the Green New Deal is a smart play. Oil will do well but something like Copper which we need to electrify the grid is going to go through the roof. The miners of metals like copper are going to do well because it is very difficult to scale up mining of metals as demand increases, it takes a decade or more to get a mine operating, so companies already well-positioned should see great profits.

Gold also has several millenniums of history behind it. Central banks across the world, including China, have increased their holdings these past few years. Gold is so far off many investor's radars at this point but it shouldn't be. Once the bitcoin hysteria blows up people will remember what a true store of value is.

The market will have a big drop (maybe 10%+, maybe not) when the fed starts to raise interest rates to guard against inflation. The fed has indicated that it is in favor of a very long period of low rates to try to push the economy along after the massive losses during the pandemic. But eventually, the fed will raise rates and then everyone who had been relying on cheap money to invest in the market will head for the exits.

Okay so you are at an age where you will be looking to preserve wealth instead of aggressively growing it. And no offense, but who uses a broker in 2021? Anyway I will reiterate that bonds have become the most useless investment vehicle with almost no upside, negative REAL rates (because inflation) and potential downside on the coupon. Do a quick google search and you can see plenty of hedge fund managers talking in articles about what I said about bonds. I can’t recommend anyone invest in bonds. Stocks are still the best cash flow generating asset, but due to the current market valuation and potential for monetary inflation I think it’s very wise to hedge stocks with hard assets like real estate, commodities, and even some physical gold and silver

No, too much liquidity out there. It's very overvalued though.

No I don't take offense. In defense of I series bonds, the rate will vary with inflation and interest rates, the money is safe, the rates are already much higher than any CD or savings account, and there is minimum penalty for early withdrawal.

I did meet with the broker and set up the account so I just need to call him to add to the investment. I decided to wait, if a correction occurs, then I'll dump some money into it.

I'm getting head from my stock broker. I hate when these brokers pimp you out and take your money. Doesn't even make sense that they can do that. So crooked. If a bank teller is flirting I will possibly shoot her...

my number.

You can't time the market. Just on this site people have been speculating we're overpriced since 2013 at least. Yes it will crash again at some point but we don't know when so you could end up missing big gains while you are afraid of the big loss.

https://www.letsrun.com/forum/flat_read.php?thread=5369837

6-8 months before Covid, I was certain the market was gonna crash in the near future. So, I bought some different types of vix and held on. It was a really sucky experience. Everyday the vix I was holding on to would keep going lower and lower. At one point the subset of vix I was holding got so low, they had to split the shares. My portfolio was so lucky that Covid hit. Dumb move by me that ended well on pure chance. I'm never going to try and time the market again. It sucks.

I put everything into Apple when it was below $10.

worldwide investment inc. wrote:

6-8 months before Covid, I was certain the market was gonna crash in the near future. So, I bought some different types of vix and held on. It was a really sucky experience. Everyday the vix I was holding on to would keep going lower and lower. At one point the subset of vix I was holding got so low, they had to split the shares. My portfolio was so lucky that Covid hit. Dumb move by me that ended well on pure chance. I'm never going to try and time the market again. It sucks.

Hey you're not the only one who used covid to gain advantage in the market. Many see a pandemic and they see money signs.

appointment with broker wrote:

I am meeting with my broker this week . . .

Advice?

Isn’t your broker supposed to be the one to give you advice?

Not random people on a message board.

X-Runner wrote:

appointment with broker wrote:

I am meeting with my broker this week . . .

Advice?

Isn’t your broker supposed to be the one to give you advice?

Not random people on a message board.

Taking advice from your broker is a terrible idea. They are incentivized to push the investments their brokerage makes the most off of and will give them the biggest commission. Most brokers know little about the market or economy other than forecasts produced by their firm which is usually just propaganda to assure you to throw more money in the market.

I'm not suggesting don't put anything in the market. If you have the resources to being in the market is important. But Wall Street has led America into pretty much every financial crisis or market crash with unbridled enthusiasm. Their track record of acting in your best interest is not good.

Jenner for Gov wrote:

Anyone who tells you they know what the market is going to do is a huckster. The market is priced where it’s priced based on all current available information.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis

This ^ is the correct answer.