2021 Boston Marathon cutoff predictions

Maxinquaye wrote:

GettingFasterDude wrote:

Unless a huge amount are going virtual, maybe?

Maybe it's just me but I can't see the virtual appealing to anyone but runners who know they will never meet the qualifying standards but want to "run" Boston, so mostly people who would never apply for the in-person race.

I waffled on registration. I actually signed up for the virtual because I’m going for streaker status. I like the perks and I like the option of it being there whether I use it or not.

I don’t think Boston in October is realistic. I also think the race will be a shell of what it was so I can’t justify $250 reg, and $300/night room, and $200 plane ticket for no expo, no social events and then getting dropped off in Hopkinton with 50 other people and then running back to Boston immediately. October weather is more questionable than April. It just wasn’t a good idea for me.

I’ll find another race that weekend and piggy back. I look at it as if I’m running a fall marathon to maintain my streaker status. I’ve run Boston 3 times. I’ve sold the medals for a nice $$$. The shirts stay in the closet. I’m not doing it for bragging right. I’m doing it because I love the completion and the race and the atmosphere. But yeah. I wouldn’t just sign up and run circles in my neighborhood. I don’t need bragging rights that bad.

Kind of what happened to me...I have been longing to qualify. When it was 3:30 for my AG I got 3:29. This time, now moved to 3:25, I got 3:13. I might make it in, but I just can't guarantee that I will make the race. I live in Asia and returning here is not easy yet. The vaccine isn't really rolling out here either. I was just afraid to shell out the money only to find that the trip was unreasonable or impossible in the end.

I will run a local race and train to see if I can go sub 3 (it will be a big leap, but I think with training, luck and some lucky conditions...).

Maybe someday:(

The timing in relation to Chicago could be a big factor. I deferred Chicago entry to this year after last year cancellation and not willing to eat that entry. Have run Boston four times and love the environment and have a -19 BQ.

runnerbob wrote:

The timing in relation to Chicago could be a big factor. I deferred Chicago entry to this year after last year cancellation and not willing to eat that entry. Have run Boston four times and love the environment and have a -19 BQ.

+1

I luckily deferred my Chicago entry to 2022. People have been saying for a while that having all six majors within a six week span would water down the field at all of them.

Middle Aged Runner wrote:

My prediction is not the value of the cutoff but when it will be announced. With the celebration jackets and adidas 2021 Boston Marathon shoes not on sale until 3 AM on May 7th at the adidas website my prediction is the cutoff will also be announced on May 7th and the registration status of all will change from pending to either accepted or rejected. Emails will also go out the those who submitted a registration request. Why else would adidas hold off on the sale of this items. They have been in stock for some time. The celebration jackets were sold briefly on Canadian adidas website back in early December. Shoe stores have received the Boston 9 in the Marathon colorway. Someone in a Facebook group posted pictures of the shoes he received in the mail today from a friend who works at a store.

Makes sense. But I also wonder why the BAA wouldn’t just tell us that may 7 would be the announcement day

Dave McGillivray just posted an update in one of the Facebook groups about an hour ago. Someone asked when we could expect to hear on acceptances. Dave said:

"Currently scheduled over multi days next week depending on being able to have all submitted times verified by then...that's been the challenge...lot's of smaller marathons have popped up that we have to track down"

In my case, Boston in October is a best case scenario. It means I can get a long block of training in over the summer, instead of trying to get fit during the usual awful winters that might have snow on the ground from October through May, iced roads, and life-threatening cold. If the race is smaller, hopefully hotels will be cheaper and easier to find, and my small chance of being relevant in my age group goes up a bit. I understand the people putting it off until they can have a "real" Boston experience in 2022, but for me, this may be a big break.

biffrogers wrote:

Makes sense. But I also wonder why the BAA wouldn’t just tell us that may 7 would be the announcement day

One reason is it is gives them as much time as they may need to contact race directors. A race director of two marathons that are qualifiers said in a Facebook group that the BAA contacted him to get details about his races. I thought they may just look for online results for a race and confirm from the race website that it was on a USATV sanction course. I did not realize they would go to the effort to ask questions of the race directors to make sure the BAA thought it should count as a qualifying race. So if they need to delay the notices until after May 7th they can do so without failing to make a previously announced date and have runners freak out.

Another reason is that not announcing the date creates more excitement since many runners are nervous and waiting for any word each day now that we are in May.

Middle Aged Runner wrote: A race director of two marathons that are qualifiers said in a Facebook group that the BAA contacted him to get details about his races. I thought they may just look for online results for a race and confirm from the race website that it was on a USATV sanction course. I did not realize they would go to the effort to ask questions of the race directors to make sure the BAA thought it should count as a qualifying race. So if they need to delay the notices until after May 7th they can do so without failing to make a previously announced date and have runners freak out.

I can confirm this. I've spoken to several RDs and one course certifier who have had the BAA reach out to them, in some cases with follow up questions. Seems a recurring issue is that a lot of smaller marathons were run on existing courses, so the course certificate, while still 100% valid, might not have a name that matches the event, whereas big races are often recertified every year, with the course name simply being the name of the event and the year.

Ohio and Mass. are stuck under Covid restrictions forever. Thanks DeWine...! :(

(@jecht, not true. Massachusetts recently okayed outdoor sporting events including road racing in the latest phase of their reopening plan. And your comment doesn't relate to this particular thread.)

I'm just curious why it's assumed there won't be an expo in Boston. Has this been stated anywhere? Assuming the Covid requirements will include vaccination or negative tests, they could certainly stage an expo and, eg., limit the number of people inside at any given time. Expos are important because they make tons of $$. They could also potentially have it outdoors in Oct. if the weather forecast is reliably dry.

Which leads me to an early comment that the weather in Oct. is more questionable than April. Quite the opposite. April is one of the most fickle months and October is not only more likely to be dry, but has the plus of being the peak of the fall colors as someone else mentioned.

Re: the traditional Boston experience, this would be my first one (I was a 2020 entrant) so I won't be picky. I'll only hope to come back in 2022 for a hopefully more traditional experience. Waiting for some news this week with AG-17+ min. ! Good luck to everyone.

I qualified for 2020 Boston in March 2019. My plan was to run both Boston and Chicago in 2020. I decided to run Chicago in 2021 since I will age up for Boston again in 2023 giving me the opportunity to re-qualify at Chicago with a slower time. I ran Boston in 2006 so skipping Boston in 2021 is not a bid deal for me. I think registrations will be way down this year and the qualifying time will be less than 5:00 under the BQ times.

The bit about weather is 100% accurate. It snowed here in Boston on April 18 2020 and April 16 2021, both within a day or two of when marathon would have been. That is not unheard of in April, but just doesn't happen as early as October 11 around here. Much more likely to be in the 70s that day. It's possible you get a slightly cooler day, but, on average (and I don't have hard data, this is just my gut from living hear) early October is much warmer than mid-April.

sixthfastestman wrote:

The bit about weather is 100% accurate. It snowed here in Boston on April 18 2020 and April 16 2021, both within a day or two of when marathon would have been. That is not unheard of in April, but just doesn't happen as early as October 11 around here. Much more likely to be in the 70s that day. It's possible you get a slightly cooler day, but, on average (and I don't have hard data, this is just my gut from living hear) early October is much warmer than mid-April.

For Boston, April 15th average high is 56 F, Oct 11th is 63 F.

The average temperature for a marathon PR? 41 F (colder than shorter races)

joay11 wrote:

sixthfastestman wrote:

The bit about weather is 100% accurate. It snowed here in Boston on April 18 2020 and April 16 2021, both within a day or two of when marathon would have been. That is not unheard of in April, but just doesn't happen as early as October 11 around here. Much more likely to be in the 70s that day. It's possible you get a slightly cooler day, but, on average (and I don't have hard data, this is just my gut from living hear) early October is much warmer than mid-April.

For Boston, April 15th average high is 56 F, Oct 11th is 63 F.

The average temperature for a marathon PR? 41 F (colder than shorter races)

Yeah where I am checking the historical average high is 61F with low of 43F and Day Average of 52F. Coming from Texas, to be honest anything like that is a godsend compared to what we usually have to run in down here, I would not be complaining at all!

Maxinquaye wrote:

joay11 wrote:

For Boston, April 15th average high is 56 F, Oct 11th is 63 F.

The average temperature for a marathon PR? 41 F (colder than shorter races)

Yeah where I am checking the historical average high is 61F with low of 43F and Day Average of 52F. Coming from Texas, to be honest anything like that is a godsend compared to what we usually have to run in down here, I would not be complaining at all!

I'd personally much rather train in the summer to race in the fall than train in the winter to race in the spring. I also feel like if you have two 60+ degree days to race, it feels worse in April than in October because you are more heat acclimated.

Anyway....do we know if anybody has heard anything today re: acceptances?

I agree and meant to also pitch in with getting to train for an October race in much better conditions. I live in Colorado and having to do those long runs on the treadmill when there's too much ice/snow is a killer. I'd much rather get up early to be cool in the summer. And you have a point not only about being acclimated to warmer temps in October, but there's probably generally a lot less humidity in October than April even at the same temperatures---on average (nothing is ever totally predictable with weather).

I haven't gotten any word yet, to answer your question, and when registering I was using the pre-verified time from late 2019 that the BAA had in my account from being a 2020 entrant. I have enough time to spare to be optimistic, having been lucky to age up, so I infer from this that they're not yet notifying people with 15-20 min cushion who already have pre-verified BQ's, if that tells you something.

Disko Eric wrote:

October weather is more questionable than April.

.

LOL wow... couldn't be much more off base

Mike_Milburys_Shoe wrote:

[quote]

Anyway....do we know if anybody has heard anything today re: acceptances?

some folks on FB are saying they are being charged - a real charge, not a pending transaction