Achievable marathon time in 7 months?

Edit: The Wed run was last 5km at 4:07/km (6:37/m).

waiting...

I would agree that you have some talent and potential. While you might run your best marathon by running 80 mpw ramping up to that from where you began or even where you are at now is a bit ambitious. Remember, if you get injured you have to start backup all over again. This might sound odd but I don't see enough slow running in the 8:00 - 9:00 min/mile range in your most recent week. I ran six marathons between 2:30 and 2:45 when younger off of similar weekly mileage but with easier easy days and with intervals thrown in. Your running efficiency at marathon race speed improves if you are doing weekly 1000M to Mile repeats in something like 5:20 to 5:30 mile pace - appreciably faster than your hard long runs but not flat out - if you can do between 3 and 4 miles worth of these at speed it would have a positive training impact. I would caution you to not run long runs hard every week, maybe alternate. If you can include tempo runs, intervals or hills, and a long run in every week and do so for some period of time at the 55 to 60 mpw level you can then consider adding more mileage. The kind of progress you are considering normally takes place over 2 to 3 years if at all and you need to be very careful about turning up the mpw know while you are also increasing intensity.

You clearly have talent, and you're clearly undertrained. Jack Daniels calls your Friday run (9 miles at 6:11/mile) the equivalent of a 2:53 marathon by itself.

So here's the good news: You have talent, you're in good shape and already close to your goal fitness, you're doing long steady work that can pay off for marathons, your mileage is heading in the right direction, and you have 7 more months to work with. If everything works out, 2:50 may be much too easy for you.

Here's the bad news: You can't count on ramping up from sporadic running to 50 mpw to 80 mpw in a short time to end well. Your training seems unstructured. You don't seem to have much race experience. And a lot can go wrong in a marathon.

So be careful with ramping up mileage and back off when needed. Check out Pfitzinger's Advanced Marathoning for a guide to things you should be thinking about. Enter some shorter 10K/HM races periodically if possible to get experience with warming up on time, waiting in corrals, taking in aid and drinking on the run, pacing yourself intelligently and all the other things that can go wrong.

good advice on hydration and nutrition - that is one thing which is different about the marathon vs. 90 minute runs

Thanks for the advice. I take your point about being careful increasing the mpw. Up to now I've been increasing both intensity and mpw pretty much every week and it's tempting to keep pushing it while I'm feeling good. But to your point, I really should be careful about avoiding injury. I'll also work on adding intervals. I have tried these only a few times (most recently 6x1km at around 5:40 min/mile pace with 90 sec recovery) and I'm sure I could get them into the range you suggested. The thing that I would struggle with most is probably more slower running. Anything above 8:00-8:15 min/mile pace feels a bit uncomfortable (probably because I have never run much at this pace), but I'm working on that too.

I wasn't aware of my Friday run Jack Daniels equivalent, so I'll take that as a bit of a confidence boost! But I agree completely on the lack of structured training and race experience. I actually just ordered Advanced Marathoning, so that should help with the structure. And I have now just signed up for a few 10k races in the summer and a HM in June which should be a good test of where I'm at.

Just offering my opinion here. If your target is a Marathon, you week should look something like this:

MON: 1 or 2 easy runs

TUES: Tempo run

WED: Easy run

THURS: 1 or 2 easy runs

FRI: Intervals

SAT: Off or easy run

SUN: Long run (build up to 20 miles)

Your easy days should be VERY easy. At your standard I'd try to keep it no faster than 7:30 pace.

Also, to add to my previous post, you need a GRADUAL build up of mileage. Start off sensibly, maybe 50-55 MPW and gradually increase it other a period of several months. And don't be afraid to throw in the ocassional 'easy week' where you skip the hard sessions and just run at an easy pace with lower mileage. Good luck!

I agree with other posters here. You definitely have some talent. The likelihood of you getting caught in an injury cycle ramping up to 80 mpw in your first marathon cycle are high. I would almost say it is likely.

As someone who started distance running in 2019 and ramped up mileage quickly and successfully before starting to pay the price with recurrent niggles I know how intoxicating it can be to see the rapid fitness improvement and have frustrating it can be seeing it all pilfered away. What I have found over the last 1.75 years however is that you will get a lot more out of consistent 65-70 mile weeks with strong workouts than you will with inconsistent 80 mile weeks and workouts on never recovered legs and periodic injuries. Obviously strong workouts on consistently higher mileage is the panacea we all hope for but it will probably take a few cycles to get there.

I would highly recommend putting the fall marathon in the back of your mind and focusing on on a HM target for early May. Do a Daniels plan or something, take a week or so off and then begin a marathon buildup. Frankly, I might even do a few Hm cycles before jumping to the full with an odd 5k mini cycle in there. I bet you can pop something in the 1:16-1:18 range quickly and that will set you up nicely for a future marathon.

I agree with all of this & with what others have been saying. Plenty of potential. Undertrained. Candidate to make quick improvements but also to end up injured if you rush into it.

I like the idea of training for a half and starting to do some structured workouts. I would plug in 1-2 defined workouts a week. It looks like you get going on a lot of easy days and that will change with planned sessions.

A good marathon comes with consistent mileage and consistent lifetime mileage. You might run 2:50ish in September but you can definitely run faster than that over the next several years. Jut start getting consistent weeks in the 50-60 range. Peak around 70. Next cycle do 60-70 and peak at 80. Obviously it's not that cut & dry but that's the general progression.

Injury likely given your aggressive ramp

3:10 likely if conditions are good. A marathon is nothing like a half. Doubling half time is not a marathon predictor.

You don’t mention your longest run. 28 miles would be useful but US LRC runners typically don’t have the stamina.

I'm a little older than you (36) and just ran 2:49 in November.

You certainly have the potential if you're careful.

7 months is a long time to train and focus only on one race...wondering the whole time if you're headed in the right direction.

I'd suggest:

1) Target a half marathon in May.

Build SLOWLY to 60-65 MPW until then and work on structuring your training some more as others have suggested. If you can run 1:22ish, you'll be well on your way.

2) Target another half marathon in July (if you're somewhere that the weather would allow for this)

Build slowly to 70-75 until then. If weather isn't favorable for a HM in July, watch the weather and pick the best day to time trial a 10-15 miler. If you can hit 6 min pace, you should be well on your way.

3) Target the full Marathon

Try to hit 4-5 weeks at 80mpw and then taper for two (70 then 45).

Random advice:

Practice nutrition to dial in what you need.

Consider building mileage in 4 week blocks with every 4th week being a down week. This will help prevent injury and burnout. Example: 50, 60, 65, 70 then 55, 62, 67, 72. Something like that. During the last 8 weeks before the thon stay steady at 80 for 4-5 weeks.

If you stay healthy and hid the targets along the way, 2:49 will be a breeze if nothing goes wrong on race day.

Thanks for all of the input. One key takeaway is clearly that my planned ramp up is aggressive with a significant risk of injury. I will first focus on putting in some consistent structured training at lower mileage before considering going to 80 mpw. I also like the idea of a HM in early May, so will see if I can find something suitable.

You can run under 2:50 easily, without increasing your mileage much. I was in a similar shape as you are now (ran 79’ half marathon and ~55’ 15k prior to the block) starting an 18 week training plan and averaged 63mi/~100km per week for that 18 week period. Peak of 77 miles but only one week. I ran 6-7 days a week.

Keys to success, for my experiment of 1- keeping up efficiency with strides and shorter intervals that aren’t at taxing intensities, and “fast” long runs, with 8 or so over 2hr 15’ 20ish miles.

strides 2-3x per week, 400s at about half marathon pace as one workout, km and mile repeats + 6-8x 200m. All of this helps keep your efficiency sharp. Long runs I did typically 6:40-50/mile pace and ended up running my marathon at 6:23 pace, 2:47 on a course with >1,000’ gain.

I can send my training spreadsheet if you want.