Yeah, I went up to 50 for the men last week. Sue me. Same as for the men, I want to keep reworking the ranking as results come in. Dibaba vs. Chepkoech vs. Hailu tomorrow should be interesting, for starters.
1. Helen Obiri ?? - She is the Kenyan national record holder at the mile, 3k and 5k, and her competition record speaks for itself: two-time defending 5k world champion, silver at the 2016 Olympics, reigning world XC champion, and 16 career Diamond League victories. In 2020 she took on all-comers in Monaco (5k) and Doha (3k) and won both in excellent 14:22/8:22 clockings. She is the queen until she’s dethroned.
2. Letesenbet Gidey ?? - She set a new 5k WR of 14:06 last October in Valencia, which makes her nearly 5 seconds faster than the second woman in history. Prior to that she’d placed 2nd to Obiri in Monaco, losing by 4 seconds. In 2019, she ran 8:20 for 3k at the Pre Classic, took silver behind Hassan in the WC 10k (last 1500 in about 4:03), and set an astonishing 44:20 15k world’s best on the roads.
3. Sifan Hassan ?? - The 2019 world champion at 1500 and 10k may conceivably have a chink in her armor in fast 5k races; her 14:22 PB from ‘19 makes her “only” 9th on the world all-time list, and in that race she was 3rd behind Obiri and Agnes Tirop. Nevertheless she went for series of performances in 2019 (8:18 3k, mile WR, 3:59 last 1500 in a 10k, 3:51 from the front) that left the world reeling, and didn’t look too shabby running 29:36 for 10k (#4 AT) in 2020, either. She did drop out of the 5k clash with Obiri and Gidey in Monaco, and was beaten by Lemlem Hailu in her ‘21 season opener in Lievin.
4. Lemlem Hailu ?? - The new kid on the block is 19 year old Lemlem Hailu, a World U18 champ at 1500 back in 2017 who’s been improving ever since. She was a WC 1500 semi-finalist in ‘19, ran 4:01i in ‘20, but ‘21 is looking like her breakout year: first, 4:06 for 2nd place by 3” doesn’t sound like much until you consider it was run at 7700’ altitude and the woman who beat her just ran 3:53i—and then she summoned a strong kick to upset Hassan and Chepkoech over 3k in Lievin, clocking 8:32i and looking like she can go much faster.
5. Beatrice Chepkoech ?? - The steeplechase WR-holder and defending world champ is staying busy so far in 2021, having contested two world-class 3ks already and heading for a third, and setting a 5k road WR of 14:43 in windy conditions. In 2020 she ran an 8:22.92 3k PR for 3rd behind Obiri and Tirop, though she was credited with the same time as Tirop down to the hundredth.
6. Agnes Tirop ?? - The 10k bronze medalist at the last two world championships and the 2015 world XC champ might actually be best suited to 5k, but can’t seem to beat Obiri, who relegated her to 2nd in both her 3k (8:22.92) and 5k (14:20) personal best efforts.
7. Margaret Kipkemboi ?? She placed 2nd to Obiri in the 2019 WC 5k in her 14:27 PB, and 5th in the same event in 2017. In 2020, she ran an 8:24 3k for 4th behind my numbers 1, 5 and 6, and most recently won a road 10k in 30:43 on New Year’s Eve.
8. Genzebe Dibaba ?? - The fastest woman at 3k (8:16 indoors) and #2 at 5k (14:15) on this list, it remains to be seen if Dibaba, who just turned 30, can still contend for global golds on the track. In 2019 she defeated Hassan over 1500 at the Rabat DL, clocking 3:55, and was 4th in the Pre Classic 3k before losing the rest of the year to injury. In December 2020, she ran a 65:18 debut 1/2 marathon and a 15:00 road 5k, both wins. On Wednesday she’ll open up her season vs. Hailu and Chepkoech indoors, where she hasn’t been beaten in over a decade.
9. Shelby Houlihan ?? - She’s the fastest American ever at 1500 and 5k, and with the exceptions of her BTC training partner Karissa Schweizer, and maybe Shannon Rowbury, nobody can even say they’re close. Globally, 14:23.92 makes her #12 all-time at 5k, and #2 by someone not born in Ethiopia or Kenya, .17” behind drug cheat Liliya Shobukhova. She was in the bad-luck 4th spot in the 2019 WC 1500 despite running her 3:54.99 AR, and it’s unclear what event she’ll target at the next global championship.
10. Gudaf Tsegay ?? - The 2019 WC 1500 bronze medalist has been posting incredible mid-distance results in 2021: 4:03 at 7700’ altitude, 3:53.09i WR, 1:57.52i 800 WL. She might not enter many 3k/5k races given the success she’s having in shorter events, but she did post 8:25/14:46 PBs last September and I’m confident she could run faster right now.
11. Konstanze Klosterhalfen ?? - In fairness to Klosterhalfen, if I could assume she had been training in a secret underground bunker somewhere in Germany since last indoor season then I might make room for her in the top-10, but knowing she was injured in the summer gives me some trepidation about her prospects for the year. She certainly has all the talent in the world, and strung together a killer series of 5ks from Aug. ‘19-Feb. ‘20–14:26, 14:29, 14:28 (WC bronze), 14:30i—as well as running 8:20 for 3k to beat Gidey, Dibaba, and Obiri at Pre.
12. Tsehay Gemechu ?? - This 22 year old Ethiopian ranks twelfth on the strength of her 4th place, 14:29 5k at the 2019 WCs. Her 2020 season was fair, all things considered, but not spectacular: 8:33/14:54/30:57 for 8th/5th/2nd at world class meets, respectively. She also owns 30:15/66:00 road bests, which could pull her away from the track early.
13. Laura Weightman ?? - She has been quietly putting up exceptional performances for the past two seasons, including an 8:26 British national record in 2019, another 8:26 in 2020, and personal bests at 1500 (4:00.0), mile (4:17.6) and 5k (14:35), the latter of which placed her 3rd in a strong field in Monaco. She was 7th in the 2019 WC 5k, ahead of Schweizer, and as well as she’s been running I can’t justifiably reverse that.
14. Fantu Worku ?? - Finished 6th in the 2019 WC 5k in her 14:40 PB at 20 years old, also recording a 8:32 3k best that season. Since then she’s posted solid results, not clearly trending up or down, but an 8:37i for 4th in Lievin and a 15:27 win at 7700 feet in recent weeks definitely keep her in the conversation.
15. Karissa Schweizer ?? - She made the 2019 WC 5k final as a 23 year old, finishing 9th, but her big PBs since then suggest she could be bound for greater heights. First, she ran an 8:25i AR to upset her training partner, Houlihan, and later tailed her to a 14:26.3 5k, which makes her the #3 non East African born runner in history, ahead of Klosterhalfen and Radcliffe. A 4:00.0 1500 TT only sweetens the deal, though she was outkicked by Debues-Stafford and Quigley in her ‘21 season opener (8:40 3k).
16. Hyvin Kiyeng ?? - Kenyan national team veteran Kiyeng is a former steeplechase world champ (2015) and one of the fastest women ever in the event (9:00.01 PB). She’s shown she’s able to mix it up in the flat races as well, particularly with her 8:25.1 3k for 4th at the Doha DL last year. She had the strength to place 4th at World XC in 2017, strongly suggesting she could crush a 5k at sea level if so inclined.
17. Lilian Rengeruk ?? - Upon finishing 5th at the 2019 WCs in a 14:36.0 PB, she would have ranked higher than this, having just capped 3 solid seasons that included running 14:36 twice, an 8:29 3k PB, and winning a bronze medal at the World XC champs. Unfortunately, Rengeruk has not raced at all as far as I can tell since the Doha WCs, at least not on the track, and I couldn’t tell you when she’ll be back.
18. Laura Muir ?? - My arbitrary rule for who qualifies for this ranking is simple: they must have competed in a 3k or 5k, indoors or out, since the start of the 2019 calendar year. Muir convincingly outkicked Klosterhalfen to win the 2019 European indoor champs 3k in a swift 8:30, defending her title from 2 years prior. She won bronze in the 2018 World Indoor 3k, and was 6th in the 2017 WC 5k in her 14:52 PB. I have little doubt she could do better than #18 if these events were her focus, but her 800m-centric 2020 racing schedule has me convinced she’s honed in on the 1500, for now.
19. Elle Purrier ?? - She finished 11th in the 2019 WC final in 14:58, which remains her 5k PB, but she’s taken her racing it to a new level since then. A year ago, she outkicked Klosterhalfen, Reekie and Stafford to win the Millrose Games mile in a 4:16.85 AR, and last week, in the NBIGP 2 mile, she cruised through the mile in 4:42 before churning out the second in 4:28 like she used to churn butter on the farm, finishing in a 9:10 AR. Look for her to drop her PBs to sub-4 and sub-14:40 in 2021.
20. Gabriela Debues-Stafford ?? - The 25 year old Canadian enjoyed a breakthrough season in 2019, when she lowered her 1500 best from 4:03 to 3:56 and placed 6th in the WC final. Moreover, she added the 5k to her repertoire, challenging for the win at the Stockholm DL meet and running a 14:44 PB later in the summer. She effectively missed the 2020 outdoor season to injury, but seems to be in good form now, easily outkicking Schweizer and Quigley to win a 3k in 8:38 10 days ago.
21. Sheila Chelangat ?? - She ran 14:40 for 2nd between Hassan and Can in Ostrava last year, improving on the 14:54 PB she’d set back in 2017 when just 19 years old. Last week, she defended her title at the Kenyan national XC champs over world marathon champion Ruth Chepng’etich. She seems to have found her greatest success to this point in 10k road events.
22. Yasemin Can ?? - She finished 0.2” behind Chelangat in Ostrava with a 14:40 SB last year, making it 5 straight years running sub-15; her PB is 14:36 from 2017. She also sports PBs of 8:33 for 3k, 30:26 for 10k and most recently a 66:20 for 7th at the 2020 World 1/2 championships. She was 6th in the Olympic 5k final in 2016, the same year she was European champion in the event.
23. Hawi Feysa ?? - 8th place in the 2019 WC 5k in 14:44, splitting Weightman and Schweizer by tenths; she’d run a 14:38 PB in Hengelo four months prior. She was 2nd in the 2019 African Games 5k, .3” behind Lilian Rengeruk. Since 2019, she has just one result listed on World Athletics - a 2:23:36 debut for 6th at last year’s Dubai Marathon. Considering she ran 14:38 at 20 years of age, I think she should take more time on the track.
24. Jessica Hull ?? - She concluded her collegiate career with a 4:06 1500 PB for 2nd at the 2019 NCAA championships, and then immediately took it to the next level, running 4:02 at the Pre Classic 3 weeks later and 4:01 in the WC semis. Her upward trend continued in 2020 as she performed consistently well and recorded 4:00/8:36/14:43 PBs.
25. Eilish McColgan ?? - She made the 2019 WC 5k final, finishing 10th in her 14:46 PB. Prior to that she’d already run 14:53 or better three times that season and 5 times overall. She displayed impressive range in 2019 as well, running 4:00.9 for 1500 and 51:38 for 10mi. on the roads, both virtually on par with her best 5k. She took a slight step backward in 2020 with 4:03.7/8:40/14:57 SBs, but I’m eager to excuse lackluster 2020 performances.
26. Eva Cherono ?? - Had a strong season in 2019, running 4 sub-15 5ks including a 14:40 and a 14:44, as well as 30:51 in her quickest of two 10k wins on the roads. Her 2020 campaign was less auspicious: she DNF’d the 5k in Ostrava, finished 589 meters down on Hassan in the One Hour run in Brussels, and lastly ran a 67:18 1/2 for 6th in Delhi.
27. Shannon Rowbury ?? - After giving birth in 2018, 2020 marked something of a return to form for the former 1500 and 5k U.S.-record holder. She ran a 4:02 and a pair of 4:03s in her 3 times out at 1500, 8:40 for 3k in a practically solo time trial, and 14:45 for 5th in Monaco, close behind Jessica Hull. She’ll have her hands full in the event of an Olympic Trials, but I wouldn’t discount her from making another global final.
28. Colleen Quigley ?? - The Olympic steeplechaser opened up 2021 with a solid 8:40 3k, out-leaning Schweizer by two-hundredths for 2nd place behind Debues-Stafford. She’s been running well since she sat out the 2019 WC steeple due to injury, highlighted by a magnificent 8:28i 3k behind Schweizer and Houlihan which suggests a 5k well under 15 is likely on the way.
29. Melissa Courtney-Bryant ?? - Her stock has never been higher—I’m particularly impressed with how close she finished to Chepkoech and Worku in the recent 3k in Karlsruhe—.4” and .2” respectively—albeit in “only” an 8:42 race. The following week, she was not as close to Gudaf Tsegay at 1500 but clocked a respectable 4:04i. She PRed at 1500 in 2020 (4:01.8), and I have a suspicion that her 4:01/8:39/14:53 PBs will drop some more this year.
30a. Emma Coburn ?? - She has medaled in each of the last 3 global steeplechase finals, including winning gold at the 2017 WCs. She appears to be in great position to make another podium, having set PBs at 800 (2:01) and 1500 (4:03) in 2020, and run 9:15y for 2nd behind Purrier at the NBIGP last week (U.S. #2 AT). It won’t be surprising if she runs in the 8:32/14:45 range in 2021, depending on steeple opportunities.
30b. Tsigie Gebreselama ?? - The relatively unknown, 20 year old Ethiopian was 5th over 3k in Lievin in 8:38, 4 tenths behind Fantu Worku. She placed 3rd in the 2019 World U20 XC Championship in Aarhus. In 2020, she came 4th in the 5k at the Kip Keino Classic—behind Obiri, Tirop and Kipkemboi but well clear of the rest of a competitive field—and clocked 15:20 in a road 5k win at 7700’ altitude. Expect great things.
National breakdown:
Ethiopia - 8
Kenya - 8
U.S.A. - 6
U.K. - 4
Australia - 1
Canada - 1
Germany - 1
Netherlands - 1
Turkey - 1
Top-4 scored:
1. Kenya - 19
2. Ethiopia - 24
3. U.S.A. - 70
4. U.K. - 85
5 more Americans to look out for: Elise Cranny, Vanessa Fraser, Courtney Frerichs, Emily Infeld, Jenny Simpson