Covid-19 - Britain strain might be 30% more deadly.

OP - king wrote:

Yes, standard Covid kills 10 in 1000, the new strain kills 13 in 1000.

more like 25 in 10,000 and 32.5 in 10,000 (maybe).

The UK variant spread in spite of strict lockdowns because people ignored the lockdowns and got together for Christmas, Boxing Day, New Years, St. Andrews, etc. Which is why the new variant spread so rapidly. Manaus had more growth for two reasons: they didn't reach herd immunity initially (they were short of the threshold, so the second round merely hit those that were not hit on the first go round). Cases are dropping rapidly in the UK (in spite of the fact that it is the middle of winter and conditions are optimal for continued spread) in spite of no change in lockdown measures as they are starting to approach herd immunity (see a flattening of cases, deaths, etc. when you hit a mortality rate around 0.22% depending on population age demographics and health factors). My town experienced something similar (big peak in cases and deaths starting in early to mid November through the beginning of January followed by a rapid decline in cases, deaths, positivity, etc. as the population reached herd immunity as there has been no change in restrictions since October. It spreads rapidly because most people wear junk masks or wear decent masks poorly (how many people have you seen with their nose uncovered?).

Harambe wrote:

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

Also, did you ever think the the UK troubles are because they lockdown/restrict so hard; all "locking down" does is promote bad health behavior resulting in worse health outcomes.

So, to be clear, you don't think the UK strain is responsible for their explosion cases and deaths in the last month+? You think it's the... lockdown they imposed on Jan 4th when cases and deaths were near Wave 1 peaks?

Well, you just inserted thoughts into my head. No, I never said that, I believe the harsh lock downs promote even worse outcomes. That actually makes quit a bit of sense as these measures generally promote immune system depressing behavior; sedentary less active living, anxiety, poor eating habits, less exposure to sunlight (reduced Vit D intake), people crammed into dense apartment complexes, etc....all things which are worse in poor communities where awareness of what good behaviors that could help them fight the virus should be. I believe the new variant is more contagious....not much evidence other than fear trolling that it is deadlier. The more fear that is pushed though will certainly lead to more death of other causes; that is inescapable. We need to calm push the vaccines among the susceptible populations in a calm fashion and start promoting the likely truth that people should fear less as this continues. We should not be pounding the people with unproven narratives of deadlier strains or trying to convince everyone that break out strains are on the way; this only leads to more fear an death.

BBC News : The group concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, described the data so far as "not yet strong".

He said: "I want to stress that there's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it obviously is a concern that this has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility."

So they are not sure. And Boris would like to demonstrate that it's not his fault.

And Ontario has a " lockdown ", but I see unrelated people interacting all the time. There's a lot of B.S.

So, to be clear, you think the UK should have opened everything up on January 4th? Or kept things the same? As their cases and deaths grew exponentially? I don't see your reasoning here. What would you have the UK do in the face of that exploding wave?

fred wrote:

BBC News : The group concluded there was a "realistic possibility" that the virus had become more deadly, but this is far from certain.

Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, described the data so far as "not yet strong".

He said: "I want to stress that there's a lot of uncertainty around these numbers and we need more work to get a precise handle on it, but it obviously is a concern that this has an increase in mortality as well as an increase in transmissibility."

So they are not sure. And Boris would like to demonstrate that it's not his fault.

And Ontario has a " lockdown ", but I see unrelated people interacting all the time. There's a lot of B.S.

Hence "MIGHT"....

This is very much preliminary data on a string that was only recognized as potentially more transmissable in december.

The locking down is not proving to do anything, so why lock down. Why not push the vaccine as much as possible and push quarantining efforts for those who are actually sick. Close the borders and restrict regional travel, and strong recommendations to the public and businesses to proceed with caution. Other than that there is little you can do that is actually effective enough to be worth the cost to society. The problem this whole past year is that people like yourselves keep demanding there is with little or no evidence to justify it. There is only so much you can do, but making people less healthy and more poor just to make rich people feel like they are doing something virtuous is horrendous, self-centered and evil.

Lead Foil Hat wrote:

The locking down is not proving to do anything, so why lock down. Why not push the vaccine as much as possible and push quarantining efforts for those who are actually sick. Close the borders and restrict regional travel, and strong recommendations to the public and businesses to proceed with caution. Other than that there is little you can do that is actually effective enough to be worth the cost to society. The problem this whole past year is that people like yourselves keep demanding there is with little or no evidence to justify it. There is only so much you can do, but making people less healthy and more poor just to make rich people feel like they are doing something virtuous is horrendous, self-centered and evil.

Well cases peaked within days of the lockdown going into effect! Not sure what you're saying it didn't work.

UK was pushing the vaccine as much as possible. They already have mandatory quarantine for positive tests. Already were in some crazy high 'tier' of restrictions and cases + deaths were absolutely sky rocketing.

What would you have done instead? Kept things the same?

I have absolutely no interest in fear trolling.

I am referring to PRELIMINARY DATA from 4 research communities in the UK..

The credibility of those would be a bit like if CDC, Johns Hopkins, Harvard and Stanford looked at the same data and ended on a common preliminary report..

This does not mean that it IS DEADLIER..

BUT it is LIKELY, because that's what they've concluded so far when looking at the data

(Comparing mortality on people infected with different strains)

For perspective:

When they first reported on the new strain being more transmissable, it was pretty much the same type of language they have used now, meaning they said it MIGHT/MAY be more transmissable than previous known strains..

I don't know why this is trolling?

Have we been warned that the virus might mutate? Yes..

Could it then become more transmissable? Yes

Could it become more deadly? Yes...

I don't know why it's surprising for anyone..

We already knew that this new strain leads to higher viral load, and from all health care workers that have died we have pretty much known since Italy that being exposed to higher viral loads increases chance of serious outcome..

But sure, instead of just reporting on what's front page news in all major UK news outlets (and proably in many other places in the world), I'm trolling...

That conclusion is as reasonable as saying lockdowns doesn't prevent transmission...

Peak NEW infections january 1st.

New lockdown january 4th.

Peak total number of people infected January 10th.

Current R = 0,8...

UK approved Pfizer and Moderna earlier than both US and EU.

UK approved Ox/Az before new years (None of the other two have done that yet)

UK leads US in vaccinations (by 50% per capita) and crushes the EU.

They have postponed 2nd jab to protect as many as possible as soon as possible..

Where they failed miserably was lifting restrictions a few days before christmas, just a few days after data showed that a new and more transmissable strain was taking over.

Horrible decicion by Boris, it was certianly not following the latest data/science.

Probably no other reason for that than him not wanting to be the guy that "ruined" christmas..

Shove this story up your man friend’s depository, Sparky.

Yusef Scummm wrote:

Shove this story up your man friend’s depository, Sparky.

I love you too.

Budda wrote:

Boris had a press conference today.

Said new strain might be 30% more deadly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/new-uk-covid-variant-may-be-more-deadly-says-boris-johnson

Which means for anyone under the age of 60 in good health it's not a risk of anything.

minnie me wrote:

Budda wrote:

Boris had a press conference today.

Said new strain might be 30% more deadly.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/new-uk-covid-variant-may-be-more-deadly-says-boris-johnson

Which means for anyone under the age of 60 in good health it's not a risk of anything.

Yup...

(Unless you somehow manage to get exposed to very high viral loads)

OP = Pud

xczvzxcv wrote:

Give evidence to show that "fear mongering" caused any deaths due to COVID.

Many suicides from lockdowns. Lost jobs, depression, isolation, causing stress.

I wish this was all a choose your own adventure book and we could go back to March 2020 and implement crazy strict lockdowns across the entire USA and see what the outcome would be now. And also that we could go back March and implement zero lockdowns and everyone kept on living as normal and we could see what the outcome would be now.

As it stands, we really have no idea if our half-hearted lockdowns in half our states really changed any long term outcomes

I may be an Olympic athlete wrote:

I wish this was all a choose your own adventure book and we could go back to March 2020 and implement crazy strict lockdowns across the entire USA and see what the outcome would be now. And also that we could go back March and implement zero lockdowns and everyone kept on living as normal and we could see what the outcome would be now.

As it stands, we really have no idea if our half-hearted lockdowns in half our states really changed any long term outcomes

Compare Sweden to Belgium, France, the UK; same crappy result. What was the point. Some will say but but but we improved things 0.03%! Great, and destroyed half the nations livelihoods in the process, the most poor people pushed into greater despair. Then the elites say, "be we are fine, it is no big deal!". Sad, so sad that the world has been sucked into this trap for little to no gain at all.

If I had the answers to all of this, I'd probably write my handle with a H.

I know the diffence between best and worst outcomes are much higher than 0,03%, more like 0,15-0,20%. (I am obviously comparing amount of people dying of and with covid around the globe. I assume you are too Lead Foil)

I think we have evidence of early restrictions leading to better outcomes in number of dead, economic impact and shorter length of restrictions required, but I see your point.

There is a mixed bag out there.

Difference in geography, economy, trust in government, demography, population density, health system and society structures makes mitigation wildly complex where there is no easy "one size fits all" solutions.

At any rate, those differences makes comparing countries by how many lives they've lost to covid-19 alone pretty much meaningless.

For people accusing me of fear mongering:

I've said time and time again that I think covid-19 is a hype.

Sure, it's an understandable hype, but a hype nevertheless with the result being that covid-19 lifes being priced at a premium of other lifes.

At least in the west.

I also think the loss of freedom is a really high price even if the cost of that is hard to qantify.

That cost comes on top of that covid-19 premium.

I've said time and time again in various threads (mostly the Sweden one) that I think we have much bigger issues on the globe than corona.

I'd wager the people accusing me of fearmongering would have been silent if the headline was "Britian strain 30% less deadly"..

(I'd have started that thread too if no one had done it before me)

The only other thread I've started on Corona was on promising vaccine results..

I think objective evidence based information is the best approach on pretty much all things.

That means the good, the bad and the ugly.

I don't like adding, omitting or cherry picking of data/evidence/information to make it fit an agenda.

Correlations...not actual research...this is like a fake news/Trump situation.