100 Mile WR Holder Zach Bitter Runs 61.5% Of Kouros' 24 Hour Record

jaguar1 wrote:

Sage has never run further than 87K on road and is arguing with opinion and conjecture, not stats. Come join us for 24Hr Sage!

Yes this. It has been all I could do to hold my tongue so I will just say... +1.

....apparently the only ones who can comment on the potential of athletes over 24 hrs are those who have done it.

Camille, if you want to argue stats lets see all your data points then? You always mention this stufff on Twitter @ me. I'm just stating physiology and science. You're a science person (and you have 24 hour experience) so lets hear some quantitive data instead of just qualitative stuff and saying I'm "arguing with conjecture" Are limiting factors(from a Scientific standpoint) not sheer muscle failure and glycogen depletion/dehydration? Are these not basically 99-100% Aerobic energy system endurance events? And is Running Economy on a flat track for 24 hours at 7:38 per mile pace (for this Kouros record) not a key metric? I actually think you're a good example of a "Faster marathoner" moving up and doing well: As a 3-time US Olympic Trials qualifier and 2:37 marathoner who "moved up" and set records at 100-miles and 24 hours and won Comrades and World 100km. Did you beat some faster women who have run 2:30 in the marathon? Certainly! Have you lost to women who were 2:50+ marathoners?...probably on the trails... But could a 2:25 marathoner maybe beat you if they also moved up and took ultras on the track seriously? I think so. Just like I think a sub 2:10 guy could smash a lot of ultra records. Sure speed can be a "liability" at a certain point, but like you always say it depends on muscle fiber composition (which generally directly effects Running Economy). Do you think that your relative "marathon speed" didn't help in you setting those ultra track records? As far as my personal experience goes, yeah I've sucked at 100-milers...but the only 100-milers I've done have been trail/mountain ones and I've really only tired a few times (same thing with a guy like Hayden Hawks who someone cited earlier...he only tried UTMB once!). Give guys like him a couple tries on a more runnable course...imagine something more like the JFK towpath stretched out for 100 + miles.... How many sub 2:20 marathoners have actually tried a 24 hour event on the track in good weather conditions? Don't worry I'll eventually try 100-miles and 24 hours on a track (and I may suck), but I'm just an n=1 story. My whole point is about correlation and stronger correlations are about having multiple data points (and the more the better). Again I just think the sample size is super small and niche.

Bob Hearn again wrote:

jaguar1 wrote:

Sage has never run further than 87K on road and is arguing with opinion and conjecture, not stats. Come join us for 24Hr Sage!

Yes this. It has been all I could do to hold my tongue so I will just say... +1.

I don’t think we will ever know the answer to how well they would do. No runners of any calibre will ever bother with 24 hours you certainly would never get sub 2:10/2:25 women wasting their time attempting it. The female 100km record holder ran 6:33 with a 2:26 marathon same with the comrades lady that broke the record by over 10 minutes also has a 2:26 marathon. How they would do over 110 miles or 24 hours I doubt we would ever know. The real Ultra trail races like UTMB, Hardrock are almost a different sport.

Every distance has its challenges and must be respected but the longer the distance the standard of “athlete” is different. Just look at the people running the 24 hour races it’s not exactly a New York/ Boston marathon type elite field!

"Are limiting factors(from a Scientific standpoint) not sheer muscle failure and glycogen depletion/dehydration? Are these not basically 99-100% Aerobic energy system endurance events? And is Running Economy on a flat track for 24 hours at 7:38 per mile pace (for this Kouros record) not a key metric?"

This is the type of assumption that classes it as conjecture. Incomplete information. You are limiting the information to help prove that speed and running economy at marathon pace due to an optimal aerobic system is in turn the benchmark for any other distance beyond that. But the truth is you don't know. It's the equivalent of 'throwing more money at the problem' and it must work. But in truth we know little about energy systems at 12hr let alone 24hr races. It's safe to assume that the rule book is thrown out of the window.

1) Camille is actually a good example of how marathon speed is not needed! 2.37 marathon speed. You are basing it on a male/female divide (still more than 20mins away from the women's record). The fact is that marathon speed is marathon speed and 24hr results are 24hr results. Camille has obliterated faster marathon runners. by a long way, men or women. And at 2.37 the data points start to stack up of plenty of faster marathon runners that have tried and can't hack it either mentally or physically (probably both).

2) You sage are a professional ultra/trail any distance any surface guy. You have trained for 100mile races with as much prep, if not more, than other slower people that have much better results than you. You haven't cracked it. According to you, if all being well you should be able to beat Korous' record. but you happen to be the only be the only n=1 that doesn't count. Surely you can get within 20miles of the record just taking it easy? 2.16 vs 2.24 i'm sure you can stroll it to 160miles by your logic? I mean you're mentally tough because you're a marathon runner right? You won't have any stomach issues because this can be trained? I'm genuinely 'korous', did you get your training wrong for Western States, why didn't your stomach hold out? Is it because 100miles is not the same as a marathon for you just as it isn't for others? For 24hr it's even more different... the correlation is exponential because of factors you refuse to accept.

Also, I know this site is not a fan of Kilian, but the guy has plenty of 24hr experience over different terrain and he can be considered to be a 2.20 marathoner (being cautious) and he has stated numerous times that running a lot of miles on flat definitely beats up your legs much more than the mountains for the UTMB / 24hr comparison... as other experienced ultra runners have pointed out.

Its interesting that some here talking about statistics only want to talk about the statistics that favor their position. Happens every time with these ultra vs sub ultra race discussions. Such as finisher rate. Go ahead and go compare finishing rates at marathons vs ultra's. And yes I realize this thread is about 24 track races. But theres plenty of timed races even in the US that while they are not track they are fairly flat loops. There should be enough data points even for the 'small sample size' crowd to conclude there is something quite different about these long races vs the marathon. Oh but I am sure you will say 'but we are only talking about elite athletes' but why? Why do you think an every day runners ability to finish a marathon but inability to finish a much longer race has no bearing on the discussion? Well I suppose only because it makes your point easier to make.

Look, I don't think anyone really thinks a 2:10 guy couldn't break a bunch of ultra records. But they are not going to do it just by going on a few long runs and dialing in their nutrition after a few big runs. Most of all what gets me in these discussions is that everyone wants to talk about the least interesting thing about these long races, that 'the faster you are the faster you can go' yeah no sh!t sherlock, and sure if you remove all the things that make an ultra an ultra then yes the faster guy will always win. But that isn't even what makes these races interesting. Its all the other stuff the stuff that people are ignoring by saying 'all things equal the faster guy wins', yes all things equal such as all the things you are saying don't matter in a long race but apparently do if you actually bother to look at the actual results that are out there and not what makes sense on paper because 'science'.

Recap from Zach himself.

It starts at 5:45

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SfREGqqE0U

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Lithuanian dude Sorokin ran 101.9% of Kouros' WR last summer.

Let's see if his record can be broken today in Barcelona

As usual projections are going wild in the first couple of hours of a 24 hour race.

BUT the leading Fotios Zisimopoulos won the last Spartathlon under 22 hours which is the fastest non Kouros time on that course.

He has openly stated that he is targeting the record, but it is not an easy task on his debut.

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