Collin wrote:
possible but not believable wrote:
I doubt the treadmill was both accurately calibrated and level.
To run 4:58 pace at 1.5% incline is equivalent to 4:40 pace level or 18 seconds/mile faster. I have NEVER seen any data that remotely concludes the benefit of zero wind resistance is worth 18 seconds per mile. If we are generous and give 6 seconds per mile (over 2.5 minutes for a marathon) that would give him a 4:46 pace or a 2:04:50 marathon!! (plus an extra mile for show)
https://42.195km.net/e/treadsim/
Runworks has 4:57.0 pace on 1.5% incline as equivalent to 4:57.4 pace on flat ground, just FYI (and 4:45.1 at 0%, not 4:40). If this conversion is accurate, I believe that he can run this on a properly calibrated treadmill. I think his 2:11 at Trials shows that he's capable of 2:08ish on a ridiculously fast course (Chicago, London, Berlin, Dubai), and he's still improving.
You have to be joking to even remotely think that piece of junk calculator is going to give you usable data. Here is a snapshot of what they calculate running into or with the wind. Are you going to believe that you can run 27.6 seconds/mile faster with a 20 mile wind at your back? Then when you turn around and run back against a 20 mph wind, you will slow down 1:40 per mile? That's ridiculous. I am guessing their treadmill calculator is just as much junk.
Do yourself a favor and start using the calculator I listed. I have used that for years and found it to be EXTREMELY accurate in real races like the Ekiden, Pikes Peak, and the world xc championships a couple years ago where I predicted the winning time within a couple seconds.
Equivalent Paces by Wind Speed
Wind Speed (negative values denote tailwinds) VO2 Demand min/km min/mile
-20 mph (-8.9408 m/s) -9.6% 3:03.0 4:54.5
-15 mph (-6.7056 m/s) -8.7% 3:04.6 4:57.1
-10 mph (-4.4704 m/s) -6.8% 3:08.0 5:02.5
-5 mph (-2.2352 m/s) -3.9% 3:13.2 5:10.9
0 mph (0 m/s) 0.0% 3:20.1 5:22.1
5 mph (2.2352 m/s) +4.9% 3:28.8 5:36.1
10 mph (4.4704 m/s) +10.8% 3:39.3 5:52.9
15 mph (6.7056 m/s) +17.7% 3:51.4 6:12.4
20 mph (8.9408 m/s) +25.6% 4:05.2 6:34.7