1500m-Marathon, what is the next record that gets broken?
There is a ton of talent right now within distance running:
1500: 2 3:28s, a 3:29 and a 3:30
3000: a 7:26 and 7:27
5000: a 12:35, 12:47 and 12:48
10000: 26:11
HM: 58:38, 58:49, and a couple 59:low
Marathon: A couple 2:04s
All of these were run this year!
Some of these athletes also have incredible range. Cheptegai ran stellar times 5k-HM, and Kiplimo ran incredible times 3k-HM.
I think this raises the question of what is the next record that will get broken? I don't think anyone thought the 5k and 10k records were going down this year, even back in the beginning of August. I think that means that there is a real possibility that any of these records could go down soon.
My opinion:
HM: Valencia in a couple days is supposed to be fast, and there are a few really fast runners in it, so its proximity makes it number 1 for me.
10000: This is second because Cheptegai already broke it, not in perfect conditions, so he can probably go faster. With another year of training under his belt, his chances will only be higher.
5000: Same as above, but I think Cheptegai is better at longer distances. I also don't think anyone else will have a shot at it next year. Jakob will probably stick with the 1500, Kiplimo will probably be peaking for the Olympics instead of a record attempt, and I don't think anyone else is really positioned for a breakout year in the 5000.
1500: This is up next because Cheruiyot ran a pretty crazy 3:28 at Monaco and was probably in 3:26 high or 3:27 low shape, but next year is an Olympic year and he wants gold. He may go out fast in the front like he has in his previous races, but I don't think he'll go out in WR pace because he's afraid to burn out. If he set the WR in the Olympic Final though, that would be immediate legend status. The next most likely person to break the record is Jakob, and given his drop from 3:30 to 3:28, there is certainly a possibility he is in close to WR shape next year, but I think it's more likely TC is in better shape.
Marathon/3000: I'm putting these two next to each other because I really doubt anyone is breaking the record soon. Kipchoge and Bekele have been the most likely to break it for over a year now, but Bekele can't seem to stay healthy and Kipchoge losing at London has shaken my confidence. Since normally athletes run 2 marathons/year max, and next year is an Olympic year, there is really only 1 chance for them to run fast, and I don't think it's gonna happen. The 3000m record is generally seen as the strongest distance record, and given how it's more rarely run, I don't think it'll get broken in the next couple years.