Let's say he would have never known that he's good at running, or simply didn't believe in himself, and he would have never trained a day in his life.
Let's say he would have become a farmer in his hometown and lived a peaceful, random farmer life.
And then one day, on a Wednesday, he learns that on Sunday there's a 5k race, and he decides to run it for fun.
He's not injured, and he's not overweight.
At age 25yo.
sub 16 easy
If he hasn't run a single mile since a very long period of times, his joints, etc. wouldn't be used to running that much, at an intense speed.
So I will say 20:10.
But after only 8-10 weeks of serious training, I think he could run sub 18min.
Sub 16 min after 6 months.
Sub 15 min after a year.
With no training at all (no cycling, swimming, or even long, brisk walks), he would not break 20, probably not 25. Even if your aerobic system and bone/muscle structure has the potential to be great, you have to train it.
I knew someone in high school who ran a JV cross country race just because the team needed a 5th man. He never ran but just out of sheer intensity to keep up and no knowledge of distance or pacing, he ran a 17: something and came in top 5. He was lean and talented but I don't remember him standing out as a varsity runner. So I think Bekele would be 15 something.
Starno wrote:
If he hasn't run a single mile since a very long period of times, his joints, etc. wouldn't be used to running that much, at an intense speed.
So I will say 20:10.
But after only 8-10 weeks of serious training, I think he could run sub 18min.
Sub 16 min after 6 months.
Sub 15 min after a year.
This seems very conservative. I was nothing special in high school, and as a scrawny 15-year-old maybe 6 weeks into my first season, I ran 3 miles XC in under 19. My teammates were like that too - after just a few weeks of training, it was pretty clear who was going to be decent, who was going to be good, and who wasn't. In one of the multitude of david45 threads, he asked how long it took people to break 20 in a 5K, and many of the responders said they did it easily in their first race. I'm sure a 25-year-old Bekele would have adapted to training much faster than any of us, assuming he didn't get injured.
Who was the Kenyan marathoner who basically did this - was an adult farmer when he started running competitively? Dennis Kimetto?
I ran 17:10 at 24 years old after doing nothing for 2 years. He would run 15:30.
Bekele would probably be under 16 in his first attempt. Sub 15 with in a month of half hearted training. Sub 14, there would be a good chance in 100 days. I hate talent. lol
I bet he breaks 12:58.90
No way is a 25 year old farmer breaking 20 minutes first time out. At a shorter distance like a mile he would do much better maybe getting under 6. Running is all about specificity. Of course if he trained, the curve would be crazy steep.
The high school kids running 17 minutes were most certainly running around playing soccer etc. which is at least running in some form. A 25 year old ethiopian farmer, however talented, is not going to blast a 5km on nothing but potential after plowing fields.
PresidentTrump wrote:
No way is a 25 year old farmer breaking 20 minutes first time out. At a shorter distance like a mile he would do much better maybe getting under 6. Running is all about specificity. Of course if he trained, the curve would be crazy steep.
The high school kids running 17 minutes were most certainly running around playing soccer etc. which is at least running in some form. A 25 year old ethiopian farmer, however talented, is not going to blast a 5km on nothing but potential after plowing fields.
lol you have no idea what exceptional talent is.
Bekele would break 16 with 0 mile. We are talking about the most talented runner of all time
I'm sub 18 after 2months of training after years with 0 sport.
Bekele would easily be sub 15 with 2months of training.
And sub 14 in less than year.
you just can't compare a 25 year old farmer who only walks around the farm for the purpose of chores to a high school kid. High school kids are active in gym a couple times a week, play games like basketball with friends, ride bikes, perhaps play soccer for several months, etc. Also, as a teen, the muscles are very elastic. I can remember as a teen I could always fire a baseball near top speed on my very first throw after 5 months off from it. In my 20s, it turned into needing a 20 minute very gradual warmup just to get going.
This is an almost unanswerable question. 20 minutes is a reasonable guess, assuming Bekele did something like soccer as a kid, but has done zero athletic activity involving running for the past 6 or 7 years. But really, who knows. This is not a likely scenario.
My own personal experience with this is that at 28 years, after 11 years away from any sports or gym classes, I ran 2.6 miles at 9:06 pace. I am a nerd, so I have recorded every run since that day I started 10 years ago. I am zero talent. 10 years later, I have a 19:22 5k pr. Though I only started doing track workouts last spring.
Impala31 wrote:
PresidentTrump wrote:
No way is a 25 year old farmer breaking 20 minutes first time out. At a shorter distance like a mile he would do much better maybe getting under 6. Running is all about specificity. Of course if he trained, the curve would be crazy steep.
The high school kids running 17 minutes were most certainly running around playing soccer etc. which is at least running in some form. A 25 year old ethiopian farmer, however talented, is not going to blast a 5km on nothing but potential after plowing fields.
lol you have no idea what exceptional talent is.
Bekele would break 16 with 0 mile. We are talking about the most talented runner of all time
I'm sub 18 after 2months of training after years with 0 sport.
Bekele would easily be sub 15 with 2months of training.
And sub 14 in less than year.
Impala, I went from 9:06 pace for 2.6 miles to sub 21 5k after only 5 weeks. And I am just a very mediocre runner. but the point is, there is a big difference from day 1 to 2 months.
Perhaps you are correct though. This is a fairly unknowable thing.
Impala31 wrote:
[quote]PresidentTrump wrote:
lol you have no idea what exceptional talent is.
Bekele would break 16 with 0 mile. We are talking about the most talented runner of all time
I'm sub 18 after 2months of training after years with 0 sport.
Bekele would easily be sub 15 with 2months of training.
And sub 14 in less than year.
No, the other poster was correct. There is a massive difference between years of no sport and never having done anything to stress the aerobic system. That he would improve extremely rapidly with training is obvious. But there is no way he would break 20, and as I wrote probably not 25 either, the first time.
This is of course all academic, because man is not made from genes alone. Environment plays a role, and if Bekele had never stressed the aerobic system when young, he would not even have the potential to be Bekele.
Way too many no talent guys here. The criteria said that he is at race weight and is an African farmer. He is not a 50 year old overweight farmer on a tractor. He is chasing his cows and sheep and dog around the farm. He is walking many miles. The more I think about it, I woukd put him sub 15. I was only a 14:30 guy but did not do a thing for 2 years and gained 15 pounds but was able to run 17:10. If I run 17:10, he runs sub 15. I ran 4:55 in 7th grade gym class never having played a sport or running a day in my life. You guys are clueless.
16:20
My nephew was a very talented athlete. But in sports like skateboarding. Skating, biking, etc. He never ran, period.
I encouraged him to try out for the track team in HS as a junior. He comes. Runs a easy run with us. No problem. Few easy miles. Next day there's a mile time trial. He runs 515. To me that's pretty nuts. And he's no bekele....
Hard to say cause some farmers can be quite active. And yet also the 5k is different.
Did he play a lot of soccer as a kid? That would make a difference. And very common.
18:00?
Who the f knows. Lol
I get your point. But talking about what you can do post being a runner even after a long break is very different than the op's question
nonsense wrote:
Impala31 wrote:
[quote]PresidentTrump wrote:
lol you have no idea what exceptional talent is.
Bekele would break 16 with 0 mile. We are talking about the most talented runner of all time
I'm sub 18 after 2months of training after years with 0 sport.
Bekele would easily be sub 15 with 2months of training.
And sub 14 in less than year.
No, the other poster was correct. There is a massive difference between years of no sport and never having done anything to stress the aerobic system. That he would improve extremely rapidly with training is obvious. But there is no way he would break 20, and as I wrote probably not 25 either, the first time.
This is of course all academic, because man is not made from genes alone. Environment plays a role, and if Bekele had never stressed the aerobic system when young, he would not even have the potential to be Bekele.
ahaha not even break 25.
almost any African kid breaks 25 with 0 training.
We are not talking about an overweight couch potato American.
Is it not said that bekele did not stress aerobic system while young. A lot of African kid walk/run a lot to go scool and play games like soccer. It is not even training but they are in good condition.
Working in an African farm all day long, walking a lot, playing soccer games when kid is way enough for bekele to break 17 and probably 16'.
An Ethiopian subsistence farmer is not a fat American farmer. Hours on your feet, everything done by hand or hand-powered tools. Think of it as a manual labor job, not a sit-in-your-tractor-and-push-a-few-buttons-come-home-eat-corn-syrup-for-dinner job.
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