NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Last year, Marcelo Mantecon beat all 8th and 9th graders.
This year, this freshman took 23rd with a time of 15:37. Also, Niwot had a freshman 9 seconds behind him.

Caden Leonard was the top sophomore, and took the last All-American spot (21st) with a time of 15:36. Rocco Culpepper (sophomore from Niwot) was only 8 seconds behind him.

Niwot clearly has the best frosh/soph class. In 2 years this team could become the second best in history (behind the 2021 Newbury Park team). This team has no seniors, and their only juniors were their #5 and #7 on the team.

Dude the race is over. Southwest wrecked California and every other region (including your northwest region). And here you are still trying to prove your point on how badly northwest would wreck California. California sucks. There, done.

Save the speculation for how good everyone is before nxn. The final results at nxn are what matters. Nobody wants to hear about how overrated they were after it already shows at nxn.

What are you even talking about?

I am addressing a point that was made earlier in the thread.

A poster said that Course A (Eagle Point) was only 10 seconds slower than Course B (Woodward Park). I said that is not true historically, that there is a 20-25 second difference. I then posted statistics that proved that point going back several years. Posters responded saying that I'm "full of it" (despite the evidence). The difference was proven again at NXN, and now posters are trying to say that isn't the case despite it happening, and in the post you quoted showed how the poster that selectively chose individual runners in an attempt to disprove it doesn't hold up when looking at all of the runners that competed.

This isn't at all about saying that one region is better than another. It's about the proven track record of how the courses compare, and posters not only disregarding history but then ignoring evidence that proves them wrong and saying that anyone that points out history is "full of it".

I've never once said "California sucks", or that the Southwest wouldn't dominate. I consistently have said that the Southwest is the strongest region. I also never said that California wasn't as good a region as the Northwest. Read the thread.

And I am saying you are getting heated over nothing. It’s letsrun. People say all sorts of stuff. the poster didn’t even call you full of it. He said if the northwest teams lose badly then you are full of it. (Which they didn’t lose badly). Course comparison is pointless and should only be used for championship predictions. Props to Nathan Neil for the amazing run at Bob firman course.
1) Herriman

2) American Fork

3) Southlake Carroll

4) Belen Jesuit

5) Christian brothers

I mean 5) Niwot

I'm not heated. I'm pointing out facts. And he said that I would have been full of it if it wasn't proven for a seventh time in this thread that there was a 20-25 second difference and not a 10 second difference. In other words, he wanted to ignore historical comparisons and say that if it doesn't happen this time it never happened at all. It was a dumb statement in support of an unfounded bias that he felt needed to be proven yet again, and it was proven again. And STILL there was a poster suggesting it wasn't relevant by trying to point out how only a select few runners did.

Can we not make this thread be about this? Tbh I don’t think anyone cares now that nxn is over.

A better topic of discussion would be how downer grove got 7th. So why were they overlooked?

They had 4 sophomores and 1 freshman on this team. They were 1-2-3-4-6 yesterday.

Fun fact: when these sophomores are seniors, Addy Ritzenhein’s little brother will be a freshman on their team.

They really haven’t faced any out-of-state teams so it’s hard to tell how they would do nationally

I mean, there can be multiple conversations in the same thread, and in fact that is what always happens in these threads. You were the one that chose to insert yourself into this facet of the thread. If you don't want it to be a bigger part of the larger discussion then don't engage in it?

A person said something. I pointed out how that wasn't historically accurate and backed it up with facts. Another poster said I was full of it, and a third poster said that it wasn't relevant because it was somehow a conspiracy by me to somehow diminish the California teams because apparently they felt California runners always run poorly at one of those races specifically (even though it wasn't only California runners involved in the 200-runner comparison). I pointed out how that was ridiculous and it was said that it would be needed to be shown once again. It was shown, and I displayed that. Another poster then tried to disprove it by selectively choosing which runners to include or exclude (only individual boys qualifiers). So I pointed out how that doesn't hold up when even looking at specifically the boys.

You didn't need to insert yourself if you didn't want this topic to continue.

Niwot is looking like they are going to be scary good. Could challenge Newbury Park's team as GOAT.

I wonder if they were pissed off all season. Everyone in this thread treated them like they were second tier

Also Kara Goucher has a son Colt in middle school. Anyone know where he will go for high school?

Plainfield North did better than expected. They took 15th.

They did beat an at-large team (Great Oak)

That's going to hurt California's chances for an at-large next year. Great Oak ran a 77:35 team time. California was lucky their teams ran well in the previous years. 77:30 probably won't even be considered anymore and seen as overrated by the committee.

Herriman's #8 Noah Manhwaring ran a 186 speed rating at Runninglane. Herriman technically had 6 runners in the mid to high 180s range

Yeah at NXN the Illinois teams showed that the Midwest region is stronger than people thought. DGN will be solid again next year. And Plainfield North and Plainfield South will improve next year because these teams have only 2 seniors. Plainfield South will be motivated to qualify after missing NXN by 1 point.

All top California teams are losing many seniors so that region will become weaker

And Manwaring is coming back next year, along with 3 Herriman scorers at NXN

So the chances at an at-large bid for a Midwest boys team will become stronger