NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Palisades Charter is another team that took 5th in the CA merge and losing 2 seniors. One to watch next year

6th not 5th

Vandergrift screwed up just like Niwot did at their NXR meet. I check their stravas nobody taped this race. They thought they would win it with Southlake Carroll by 100+ points. Should have checked the course for a better racing strategy and used the taper.

Those guys were 13th at the first mile at NXR

Personally if I had the choice I would give it to Vandegrift over CA #4, Great Oak - SW #4, Niwot. Think about this.

Niwot is the #2 best Colorado team since 2015. Probably around the same strength at Great Oak 2023. However, they have a terrible resume for not racing the competition from NW, SW, CA.

Great Oak won all of California early-mid season races. They were 2nd at Woodbridge, 2nd at Clovis, 1st at Mt Sac and 6th at NXN last year. Their team time improved from 78:00 - 2022 to - 77:35 2023 at their state course (woodward park).

However, Vandegrift needed to perform better at their NXR course. NXR shouldn't be treated as a joke. Common. How does the gap go from Southlake Carroll go from 8 seconds 15:21-15:29 to 27 seconds 15:10-15:37 in 1 week? Taper for the damn race and run smarter next time

All teams hoping for an at large needed to perform better at their regionals. At least Vandergrift got 3rd. You have 4th place teams like Niwot and Rocky arguing why they should get in. Vandergrift has the best resume IMO. Great run out of the B section of Woodbridge and only 8” behind Southlake (the #2 team in the country) at the recent state meet.

Yes, it's a consideration. The committee is supposed to select from the best teams with a preference towards end of season results (re: NXR and State) and special consideration for teams that beat other notable teams (specifically competitive regional champions, but I would think beating other AQ teams and other potential At-Large teams would be pretty relevant if teams look similar enough).

So, for example, if Buchanan's race at their state meet looks to the committee like a clear-cut Top 3 performance (amongst At-Large candidates), they'll be a strong contender for a spot despite having more mediocre results during the season. On the flip side, if York's race at NXR looked like it was worse than their state meet and they have a win over a competitive regional champion, then they'll be a strong contender for a spot despite slipping at NXR.

Congratulations to the San Clemente and Dana Hills boys teams and JSerra girls team. Really showed that South Orange County is a hotbed for cross country. San Clemente, Dana Point, and San Juan Capistrano are all located within 8 miles and a short trip down the 5 freeway.

Shout out to Coach Tim Butler for his influence on both boys qualifiers to NXN. Also to San Clemente’s head coach and Coach Butler’s protege/successor at Dana, Coach Craig Dunn.

When do they announce at-large selections?

Christian Brothers - 186.82 NE #1
Dana Hills - 183.9 CA#2
American Fork - 183.4 SW#1
Southlake Carroll - 183.4 S#1
San Clemente - 183.3 CA#1
Westfield - 181.5 NE #2
Riverton - 180.2 SW #3
Herriman - 179.8 SW#2
Oakdale - 179.2 CA#3
CDA - 179.7 NW #1
Crater - 179.4 NW #2
Great Oak - 178.4 CA #4
Ridgefield - 178.4 NE #3
Belen Jesuit - 178.2 SE #1
Trabuco Hills - 177.9 CA#5
Stevens Point - 177.8 HL #1
Franklin - 177.6 NW #3
Rocky Mountain 177.5 - NW #4
Downers Grove North - 177.5 - MW #1
Wayzata 175.8 - HL #2
Plainfield South - MW #3 - 175.7
Bentonville - 175.5 - S#2
Niwot - 175.4 SW#4
Plainfield North - 174.9 - MW #2
Austin Vandegrift - 174.6 S#3
Carmel - 172.8 MW #4
Brookline - 172.7 NE#4
i put together the average speed ratings for all nxr courses. Please note this is just for fun. (NE speed ratings seem to be too high). and obviously the committee won't use this when chosing an at-large. I only included the top 2-5 teams of each region.

I think they usually get published around midnight EST or a bit before.

Is it posted on the NXN/NXR website?

Can you add NY as well?

Cba is 184.2 unless I’m missing something? Course was a disaster at bowdoin today. Grevious performance was very very impressive. I still don’t think NE gets an at large but top guys performed well given the mud.

If you score those teams by region like a cross country meet, CA looks really good. I was skeptical last month, but it was a strong run today (as were qualifying). I don't think it was just SR fluke, as it was run at the usual Woodward Park and there is a ton of data, and Tully used the same scale as the Clovis meet (same course). Most of the teams ran much better today, as you would hope. Still, when it comes to at-large bids, Great Oak had a pretty good day for them, but not a great day, and it might be just enough to cost them a bid.

In the section qualifying races 11 teams in the Southern Section of California alone had a team SR average of 170 or higher. I think the SW region is the only section to better that. Millikan was over 170 and didn't even qualify for states in Div 1.

Just heard that Buchanan girls got an at large bid.

Individual boy at larges should be 3 SE, 2 CA, 1 SW in my opinion. The footlocker regional races shown that top runners at NXR Midwest / NXR Heartland weren't as good as the speed ratings depicted them to be. Speed ratings for Footlocker look to be matching more speed ratings in the west.

can anyone else confirm if they received an at-large?

Some on the other thread posted that Riverton boys got an at large as well.