NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

I don't think their NXR race was very good, but keep in mind the Northeast course is quite a bit slower than the other NXR courses. I think they will get some consideration though because the committee has been a little generous with the Northeast teams in the past and their only losses this year were to AQ teams (Belen Jesuit at Great American, and then NXR). And I'm not sure the committee will want to give all 4 spots to teams out west even if they are the most deserving - regional bias can come into play.

CA Girls should easily get 2 at larges.

Remains to be seen if CA boys will get 0-2 at larges. If you give them 1 for GO, you basically need to let Oakdale in timewise. They do lack the wins though, so 1 seems a safe bet.

I think it should be 2 for SW and 2 for CA. The fact that NE and NY have their own regions and are not combined should disqualify them from being eligible for an at large. It's already too easy for them to qualify and they aren't fast.

Teams improve over the course of the season. As an example, Mountain View ID was also at Nike Portland. Franklin averaged only 25 seconds ahead of Mountain View at Nike Portland, but then averaged 55 seconds ahead of them at NXR.

The Southwest is ridiculously deep and their #7 team is better than most region's #3/4 teams, but you can't use one teams' midseason results to compare two other teams that didn't compete without taking additional considerations into account.

regarding the girls invites: keep in mind MW#3 York IL won their state meet over MW#1, 2 and 4. I think it would be hard to exclude them, especially since their regional race was also competitive. (MW#4 Barrington was also ahead of MW#1 Prospect at state)

Beyond York and possibly Barrington, you have to consider just how absurdly good the Southwest is. I don't think it's easy for any other region to claim they have two teams better than Lone Peak or Mountain Vista, including AQ teams. California is probably the closest but I don't think it's a slam dunk. We saw how dominant Air Academy (SW#2) was at Woodbridge early in the season when they clobbered all of the California AQ and potential At-Large teams. JSerra Catholic and Buchanan were 30 seconds behind them, and the rest of the top Califiornia plus the top 3 South teams were 45-60 seconds behind them. At NXR, Mountain Vista was 15 seconds back and Lone Peak was 20 seconds back. Some or even most California teams may well have made up some ground over the course of the season, but Air Academy didn't appear to run poorly at NXR. And let's not forget, Lone Peak (SW#4) finished fourth at nationals last year and returned everyone (though Aargard didn't run at state or NXR).

It seems to me like 6 teams are deserving, and I'd give the nod to a third place MW team that won state over their AQ teams and both SW teams which have looked dominant over a second California team.

Why? They got two last year. The two finished 19 and 21. Trabuco Hills ran well today but didn't beat any of the CA top 3 all year. Finished 70 points out of 2nd place.

I think it should be:

Buchanan

York

Vista

Lovejoy

Also, ALL four Illinois teams also beat Assumption (SE AQ#2) head to head earlier this year.

I think a lot of people here know how deep the SW is, but I think some east coast bias on the committee will prevent CA and SW getting two at large bids. I think Niwot would beat half the field, but they will likely be left out.

And Niwot didn’t beat any autoqualifiers. Also Niwot was far behind the third place team. But their top 4 were sophomores and a freshman so they got 2 more years.

I’m curious on how they will look at Plainfield South (missed NXN by 1 point / beat an autoqualifier 3 times)

Great Oak and Oakdale both beat San Clemente at Clovis

Niwot was undefeated until NXRSW and won the CO powermerge by a large margin with the second best team performance in CO history.

Trabuco Hills went to Firman and got clapped. I imagine that hurts the perception of Great Oak and Oakdale, who ran close to TH.

A California fan boy will probably talk about the travel, but 3 other schools did the Woodbridge/Firman double and they all did okay. Herriman actually had to travel for both where Eagle was at home for Firman and TH had it Woodbridge in their backyard. I don’t buy California being deep beyond 2 teams this year on the guys side.

And then ran terrible at NXR Southwest. Bye.

Oh right, I forgot Dana Hills and Trabuco went to Firman again this year.

I think the At-Large situation on the boys side is pretty tricky. Riverton is dominant enough they are an easy invite. But the others have flaws that will be argued.

Niwot was far back at NXR; Franklin was beaten at Nike Portland; Rocky Mountain was beaten at Firman; Trabuco Hills and Dana Hills were also beaten at Firman (Rocky Mountain was ahead of them). Plainsfield North beat Plainsfield South at state and then switched at NXR but weren't really quite as impressive as the western teams. Ridgefield and Austin Vandegrift were solidly "ok" but not much more than that.

Ultimately, I think Niwot is a harder sell than the Northwest and California teams and Plainsfield North because of how far back Niwot was, even if they are just as good as the other teams and it's just a function of how deep the Southwest is. And I think it's more likely they spread the invites out rather than giving a region a fourth team if the teams are similar enough. With that in mind, I think Franklin probably gets an invite, with the other two probably going to Plainsfield North (having beaten an AQ team and being 1 point away at NXR in a traditionally strong region) and the third California team.

If you want to pull that move, then how about we talk about how Torrey Pines (couldn't qualify to the ca state meet) went up to Nike Hole in the Wall and placed 3rd beating Bozeman #7 NW and Seattle Prep #5 NW. We can also talk about how Layton Utah #20 SW beat the Rocky Mountain and every other NW team at Bob Firman. Some teams improve and it shows.

I will tell you which regions it shows that there has been no improvement. That is Northeast and Midwest. They ran their regional course early in the season and showed no improvement team time wise.

Northwest and California ran their regional course at Bob Firman and Clovis. Both showed improvement at their regional race.

SW is just that good. Niwot's team average at NXR was the same as Herriman's in 2022 before they went on to place 3rd at NXN.

is it even the same course (distance wise)? They had to fix the distance a day before because it was 2.88 or something.

Is season success considered at all? if so I would think CA girls shouldn’t get any at large teams. Buchanan has had a terrible and inconsistent season, there are other teams in other regions that have been consistent throughout. This Buchanan team has been a mess since Woodbridge.

Speed ratings for CIF and today’s NXR races.

in CIF, ALL of the top 12 (in the merge) boys teams are senior heavy. Jesuit CA took 14th in the merge but are very young. They have a great coach too

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/CaliforniaStates2023.htm

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/NXR_Northeast_2023.htm

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/NXR_NewYork_2023.htm

Actually, the course was recorded as being slightly longer than 5k and it was slower and muddier than the year before.