Scott Jurek Appalachian Trail Record Attempt

It would appear that Scott has covered 100 miles since Tuesday, and he still has about 4 hours of daylight. I think he's got about 48 hours to go. Curious if anyone has the elevation on the climb to the finish.

Scott Jurek Stalker wrote:

It would appear that Scott has covered 100 miles since Tuesday, and he still has about 4 hours of daylight. I think he's got about 48 hours to go. Curious if anyone has the elevation on the climb to the finish.

http://www.whiteblaze.net/forum/content.php/829-Appalachian-Trail-Elevations-by-States-and-Sections-Maine

This famous ultra runner is touch and go to beat a record set by a girl who walked the trail?

I'm not understanding the big deal here

an important victory? why??? wrote:

This famous ultra runner is touch and go to beat a record set by a girl who walked the trail?

I'm not understanding the big deal here

So, how much fat have you packed on? 20, 30, 40 pounds? It shows. $$ won't make that go away.

With all of the current ultra running talent (male & female), it would appear that this record is ready to fall. That said, even a pro like Jurek can't overcome an injury in a multi-day event like this. He would have been wiser to have abandoned ship (like Meltzer) and waited for another attempt. Instead he has drawn huge attention to the relative 'softness' of the record and I suspect that a handful of the young guns (and Meltzer) will be lining to tackle 'the Record That Jurek couldn't Break' next year (or even later this year--a North to South run is doable for another month or two).

Looking bleak. Just 36 miles in the last 24 hours, and basically 84 miles to go (less than 45 hours to do it). That said, There are arguably 45-50 miles relatively flat 'runnable' miles which Jurek could cover in 8 hours (if he is still capable of running).

No way he's this close and doesn't get it. He's probably going all-in tomorrow. He'll wake tomorrow and won't stop until the end. No need to sleep tomorrow night. As you said, there are runnable miles ahead.

Alan

runningart2004 wrote:

No way he's this close and doesn't get it. He's probably going all-in tomorrow. He'll wake tomorrow and won't stop until the end. No need to sleep tomorrow night. As you said, there are runnable miles ahead.

Alan

We don't know how bad he's suffering, though. Hopefully, you're right - he sleeps 6 or 7 hours, wakes up and blasts the next 50 in 12 hours, since it's relatively flat and fast. That would leave maybe 20 - including Katahdin -for Sunday. Yes, do-able, but if he does do it, it won't be by more than a few hours.

Not going to happen wrote:Looking bleak. Just 36 miles in the last 24 hours, and basically 84 miles to go (less than 45 hours to do it). That said, There are arguably 45-50 miles relatively flat 'runnable' miles which Jurek could cover in 8 hours (if he is still capable of running).

When you're this close just take some sleeping pills and pain killers and just go all 45 hours. He's not going to do any more damage than he already has and hard to see how you can hurt yourself doing granny cutoff marathon speed. Might as well this close, I would have quit early and live to fight another day.

Link wrote:

runningart2004 wrote:

No way he's this close and doesn't get it. He's probably going all-in tomorrow. He'll wake tomorrow and won't stop until the end. No need to sleep tomorrow night. As you said, there are runnable miles ahead.

Alan

We don't know how bad he's suffering, though. Hopefully, you're right - he sleeps 6 or 7 hours, wakes up and blasts the next 50 in 12 hours, since it's relatively flat and fast. That would leave maybe 20 - including Katahdin -for Sunday. Yes, do-able, but if he does do it, it won't be by more than a few hours.

Thanks for the links to Scott's progress and the elevations, Link!

an important victory? why??? wrote:

This famous ultra runner is touch and go to beat a record set by a girl who walked the trail?

I'm not understanding the big deal here

I probably shouldn't respond, but here is that "girl's" resume:

2003:

Appalachian Trail Thru-Hike

2006:

Kilimanjaro Summit, Africa

Pacific Crest Trail Thru-Hike (2700 miles)

2007:

Hike for Habitat Fundraiser ($10,000)

Machu Picchu and Cotahuasi Canyon, Peru

Women’s Vermont’s Long Trail Record (7 days, 15 hours)

2008:

Unsupported 600-mile Bibbulmun Track Record, Australia

Women’s Appalachian Trail Record (57 days and 8 hours, an average of 38 miles per day.)

Blue Ridge Outdoors Person of the Year

2009:

500-mile Colorado Trail

2010:

Foothills Trail

GR20

Tour du Mont Blanc

Pembrokeshire Coastal Path

West Highland Way

2011

Overall Appalachian Trail Record (46 days, 11 hours and 20 minutes, an average of 47 miles/day)

So JPD was speed-hiking long trails for five years prior to her successful attempt at the AT record. Scott, by contrast, "never did 300 miles in a week" before setting foot on the AT (by his own admission). If anything, I think it's pretty amazing that Scott has been able to hang with JPD on an event so far outside of his expertise.

I don't think he sleeps more than 4-5 hours the next two nights.

He'll get the record, but only by a few hours. A lot depends on if he is able to run any tomorrow and if he sleeps at all tomorrow night. I predict he finishes early in the day Sunday.

Alan

I don't know if anyone else is following along, but Scott has bumped up the pace considerably. I was a bit pessimistic, but it seems he's rallying.

mileage_man wrote:So JPD was speed-hiking long trails for five years prior to her successful attempt at the AT record. Scott, by contrast, "never did 300 miles in a week" before setting foot on the AT (by his own admission). If anything, I think it's pretty amazing that Scott has been able to hang with JPD on an event so far outside of his expertise.

Be honest is that what you actually thought at the beginning. This is after all still about speed because you have to go from point A to B faster than the other guy or gal, and the other person walked it and did it with relatively proper bed and rise and shine times! I'm sorry can't get over that. Her record is probably the most impressive and near capacity under the hiking category, but you can't tell me this is the best a runner can do.

Why indeed!! wrote:

With all of the current ultra running talent (male & female), it would appear that this record is ready to fall...

I agree that the AT records (like a lot of FKTs) are going to be improved substantially in the coming years with all of the increased attention. It will be a lot of fun to watch.

I think a lot of ultrarunners will struggle though without specific long-hiking preparation. Here's an analogy to consider: In terms of ratios of distances, 100m is closer to a Mile than 100 Miles is to the AT. (The AT is currently 2189 miles long.) And the letsrun consensus is very clear on this issue - Bolt wouldn't do so hot in a mile. Use the search function if you don't believe me. Another analogy would be that going from ultras to long hikes is like going from the mile to the marathon. Surely being a good miler is a good starting point, but just jumping into a marathon probably won't end well.

Now, there are plenty of reasons why being good at running 100 miles might translate to a 40+ day effort better or worse than Bolt's speed would transfer to a mile. I'll let someone more qualified than myself speak to that. I just want to put the brakes on the idea that ultrarunning training is adequate to do well in an attempt like this. The post that I'm responding to didn't necessarily mean to imply this, but it's something that Jurek seems to have been counting on. And dubiously, apparently.

This may be a record where being young and being able to recover fast is better than any ultra running or hiking skills older coots can master.

Jennifer Pharr Davis speed hiked from 5 am to 9:30 pm every day when she set the record:

http://espn.go.com/espnw/athletes-life/article/9444142/espnw-jennifer-pharr-davis-shares-tales-trail

Link wrote:

I don't know if anyone else is following along, but Scott has bumped up the pace considerably. I was a bit pessimistic, but it seems he's rallying.

Around 10 pm Thursday he fords W. Branch Pleasant River -- so in 14 hours thus far today he's completed 30.4 miles, averaging 2.17 mph. According to an online mileage chart, the ford is 86.2 miles to the end, and he had 45.25 hours to stay in the black vis JDP. I hope he's rallying, because he doesn't have much room to falter...

mileage_man wrote:

I think a lot of ultrarunners will struggle though without specific long-hiking preparation. Here's an analogy to consider: In terms of ratios of distances, 100m is closer to a Mile than 100 Miles is to the AT. (The AT is currently 2189 miles long.)

Hmmmm, can you show your work on those ratios?

I get:

100 miles to 1 mile = ratio of 100:1

2189 miles to 100 miles = ratio of 21.89:1.

In terms of ratios, the 100 mile is nearly 5x FURTHER from a Mile than 100 Miles is to the AT.