HEPS XC 2013 OFFICIAL THREAD

Cornell got a new men's mid-distance coach last year, and the mid-d guys have done absolutely nothing ever since. Poor showings in mile, 2 mile, 5k in spring; bad xc season. Columbia has potential. Princeton can always pull a rabbit out of the hat.

"absolutely nothing"

Well, except for a 4:00.00 mile. And going 2-5 in the Heps steeple (and 1-2 in the College steeple at Penn Relays). And running 7:27 in the 4x8, and scoring in the event (and the 5,000) at the indoor IC4A meet. Plus winning the open 800 and the 4x8 at indoor Heps, with seconds in the 1,000 and mile.

But otherwise, yes, absolutely nothing.

Hey Rojo, Abbey did win in the blizzard of 2011 Heps XC, FYI. She didn't run last year due to a hip injury.

rojo wrote:

I've written previews of both the men's and women's races. I tried to be very objective and feel very confident in my predictions, particularly on the men's side.

Men's preview:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/10/2013-ivy-league-heps-mens-cross-country-preview-will-columbia-hold-princeton-looking-fourth-straight-title/

Women's:

http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/10/2013-ivy-league-heps-womens-cross-country-preview-can-dartmouth-dagostino-stop-cornell-three-peating/

hope to see everyone at heps.

Thoughtful analyses, Rojo. I agree that the Dartmouth women now rate as the favorite--I'm sure AD'A would like to leave Dartmouth with a Heps team win, which isn't likely in t&f. Cornell was not expected to win two years ago, but came up with great races from key personnel; FWIW the forecasts suggest there could be a lot of water again on the course this year, so maybe the Big Red will shake off their injury/illness troubles, break out the long spikes, and take another unexpected win. But I truly think that Princeton is a genuine contender whom no one should take lightly.

I've had a chance to see the Columbia men in action this year and they are *very* impressive. I have to agree with you, though, Princeton is my pick (if I were forced to make one--I'd love to see a tie for first!).

I appreciate the work that went into those previews. Thanks.

My picks:

Men -

Columbia

Princeton

Harvard

Yale

Penn

Cornell

Brown

Women -

Dartmouth

Cornell

Princeton

Columbia

Harvard

Yale

Penn

Brown

ladedah wrote:

My picks:

Men -

Columbia

Princeton

Harvard

Yale

Penn

Cornell

Brown

And the Dartmouth men?

My picks - men redux:

Columbia

Princeton

Harvard

Dartmouth

Yale

Penn

Cornell

Brown

To me the men's individual race is the toughest to call. Here are how my odds look:

40% Bendsten - Has not had a spectacular season thus far but I have seen this kid dog it all season long then blow down the last 200 at heps far too many times to pick anyone else as the favorite.

25% Korolev - Like Rojo et al are saying, this kid is kinda like Two-Face from Batman. If he is on his game he wins, simple as that. The reason I didn't actually put him at 50% is the strange trend of his to run well every other race. Last xc it was most apparent, when he crushed Wisco, bombed at Heps, crushed regionals, then bombed at Nats. He obviously ran well at Wisco last week so if we follow that ridiculous logic, he won't look too good on Saturday.

10% Geoghegan - Very talented guy that has slowly been moving up the ranks. Might be due for a breakout race.

10% Udland - Similar to Geoghegan in that he as been very much in the picture the past few championships and might be capable of more than we have seen.

5% Bleday - Simply cannot count this guy out after an unforgettable indoor 3k at Cornell in 2012. Easy to forget because he was hurt last fall, but he has the magic if he is in it off the last turn.

5% Leakos - Not quite as inconsistent as Korolev, but he is similar in that he could beat Bendsten if he does have his best day. The problem is he has never done that at Heps.

5% Pons - Huge talent finally getting things together.

As strong as the Columbia team looks I just don't see one of their guys breaking it open because they run so well as a pack. Sienko would be the one to do it but I see him as a guy that finishes right with the chase pack (3rd-6th) on a good day.

school of hard knocks -

I agree in that Columbia does not have the front running power that Princeton and Harvard currently have. And yes, the Harvard duo are so unpredictable and I understand why you gave them the low percentages. Columbia's advantage is their tight pack running since Sienko, Everett, Gregorek, and Composto can run the 8km in near-same times.

It should be noted that Bendtsen was not called a favorite for the individual title last year, and yet he came out on top. If I recall correctly, it was Alejandro Arroyo Yamin who was favored. I think Bendtsen is a dark horse for the individual title.

Geoghegan, who is talented, I don't know if he has the final kick to keep up with the Princeton or Harvard folks. He did not have a good outing at Wisconsin two weekends ago, but I feel he can definitely make it into the top 7 again this year.

Just my two cents.

Hard knocks and c/m,

My thoughts on the men's race are basically that there are 2 from Harvard who have run in the low 23s already this year, and then a pack of around 8 who have run in the 23:50-24.10 range. That would include the top 4 from both Princeton and Columnbia, 2 from Dartmouth, Harvard's 3rd.

If Leakos and Korolev start banging out their 4:41-4:42 pace, do some of the Princeton contenders try to cover the move? That's pretty high risk from a team strategy perspective. They might want to bide their time in the chase pack because there is very little margin for error against Columbia's top 4, 3 of whom were sub-24 at Wisconsin.

The Dartmouth individual contenders might as well go for it if they are feeling good, unless they think their 3-4-5 are coming around to enough to challenge for the title.

Harvard's best play is to hammer from the gun. If Leakos and Korolev can cause some casualties among some of the other contenders and their 3rd can grab a low stick, then they might be in the team mix.

Problem at HTC!

In the first Heps previews at Hepstrack.com (Cornell and Brown men), this comment is made: "...only seven runners can race at Heps."

Unless there was a big change that I never heard about (always a possibility, I suppose), that's flat wrong. Twelve may run at Heps. Hence the two spots that Cornell filled on its Heps squad, based on the Reif meet last week, were for its 11th and 12th runners, not 6th and 7th.

[Apparently the Cornell women--atypically--this year also filled in their last couple of Heps spots based on the Reif results.]

Looks to be fixed now.

Conference voting now open. Tell us who will win the Heps: http://www.letsrun.com/news/2013/10/2013-letsrun-com-ncaa-cross-country-super-fan-polls-conference-voting/

Thanks, wejo.

FYI - you forgot to include Dartmouth in the women national poll option listing. Could you include them?

thanks,

I actually don't think Korolev and Leakos are going to be able to get away from that large pack that you mentioned around 23:50-24:10. They seemed to try last year but were unable. From watching these teams in the past I have seen considerable improvements from Princeton, Columbia, and Dartmouth as we get closer to the end of the season, whereas the Harvard men do not have similarly consistent trends. This makes me think the front pack will be at least 10 men deep through 5-6k, after which a hard move will separate the men from the boys. Once the fun starts I think we will know pretty quickly whether a guy like Udland, Bleday, or Geoghegan is having a big day. One thing I am pretty sure of is that any race where Bendsten is still in contact with a quarter to go is going to go his way.

Awad is another guy who I think will be there for a while, and may even cover a few big moves. He had a tremendous freshman year, which might have earned him a heps title or two three or four years ago when the league wasn't quite as strong.

Does Columbia still go out in last and then move up?

Do you think individually the 5k/10k guys tend to under perform in track relative to XC or have they just had a group break through?

I don't think they underperformed this spring on the track. The ivy league had 3 national qualifiers in the 5k and 4 in the 10k. The PAC-12 had two in the 5k and three in the 10k.

Looks like the hepstrack people are trying to do a prediction contest...

http://hepstrack.com/blog/2013/10/28/placing-bets/

Team (men):

Princeton

Columbia

Harvard

Dartmouth

Some combination of Yale, Brown, ect.

Individual:

Korolev

Leakos

Bendsten (yes)

Sienko

Bleday