OMG...Jakob 3:46.46 in the mile!!

Armstronglivs wrote:

objectiveobserver wrote:

You really have a rigid mind!

I have been writing about this subject in another thread and will try to elaborate here:

1. You aren´t running fast when the weather conditions are bad!.

Van Diepen who won in Bergen in 1:46.56 has both before and after run low 1:44; most lately new PB in Paris in 1:44.14.

Australian Deng who ran 1:46.77 in Bergen has afterwards run mid 1:44 in France.

Don´t you think Jakob could have run 1.5 seconds faster under better weather conditions? Especially considering he already 2 years ago ran 1:46.48 at 19.

2. It is VERY unlikely that you realize your potential if you only run one 800m every second or third year.

Even the 800m specialists normally needs time to run their season best:

Van Diepen´s season starter was a 1:47.10. (In California).

Bryce Hoppel´s 1:47.27. I took 3 runs before Hoppel broke 1:46.

I will let yourself judge Brazier´s season opener!

Frenchman Bosse ran 1:44.54 in DL Paris braking 1:47 for the first time this year in his 4th try.

Don´t you think Jakob would improve equally if he ran some more competitions?

3. And especially if he did some specific training for the 800m.

4. All my old heroes Snell, Coe, Owett and Cram were typically 800m/ 1500m runners so they probably trained specifically for the 800m and therefore realized more of their potential.

5. The shoes: Jakob ran 1:49.40 in 2017 at 16 with the "old" shoes so you can´t use the shoes as a way do further downgrade his performances.

6. In your answer to THOUGHTSLEADER´S statement that Jakob could have run at least 1:45 mid last summer you state that Jakob can´t improve with "a couple of seconds". That is misleading as he only has to improve his 2020 time 1:46.48 with ONE second to hit mid 1:45.

You can offer examples of what other runners have done but they aren't Jakob. We can only see what he is achieving. We see no indications that he will or could substantially improve over the 800.

The question at the core of this discussion is whether he has the basic speed of similar or previous top 1500 runners. The measure for "basic speed" (top-end sustained sprint) that Lydiard used was an athlete's time over 200. Snell was 22-low and Ryun was comparable if not even quicker. Coe and Ovett were 21-high. I haven't read what Jakob can do but I would be certain it would be nothing like that. I read that at 16 he could run 51 for the 400 - an averagely good schoolboy time over that distance. I am sure he would be faster now but I would guess he is in the region of 49-low or mid. That would fit with his 1.46-mid over the 800.

I doubt he could run 1.45-flat without being a 48s runner over the one lap. Has he ever shown that?

A reason also for his running very few races over the shorter distance is that he isn't competitive over that distance. Runners rarely put effort into what they aren't good at.

BTW, the shoes I was referring to were not the "old" shoes of 2017 but those of the early 1960's.

Perhaps you could answer the question, if Jakob is clearly a lot slower in terms of basic speed than the best middle distance men of the '60's, who included athletes like Elliott and Snell who were endurance trained, what enables him to be so much faster than them over the mile, their distance?

objectiveobserver wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

You can offer examples of what other runners have done but they aren't Jakob. We can only see what he is achieving. We see no indications that he will or could substantially improve over the 800.

The question at the core of this discussion is whether he has the basic speed of similar or previous top 1500 runners. The measure for "basic speed" (top-end sustained sprint) that Lydiard used was an athlete's time over 200. Snell was 22-low and Ryun was comparable if not even quicker. Coe and Ovett were 21-high. I haven't read what Jakob can do but I would be certain it would be nothing like that. I read that at 16 he could run 51 for the 400 - an averagely good schoolboy time over that distance. I am sure he would be faster now but I would guess he is in the region of 49-low or mid. That would fit with his 1.46-mid over the 800.

I doubt he could run 1.45-flat without being a 48s runner over the one lap. Has he ever shown that?

A reason also for his running very few races over the shorter distance is that he isn't competitive over that distance. Runners rarely put effort into what they aren't good at.

BTW, the shoes I was referring to were not the "old" shoes of 2017 but those of the early 1960's.

Perhaps you could answer the question, if Jakob is clearly a lot slower in terms of basic speed than the best middle distance men of the '60's, who included athletes like Elliott and Snell who were endurance trained, what enables him to be so much faster than them over the mile, their distance?

Of course other runners examples are relevant for Jakob or do you think he is a different being.
If other runners soon after Bergen ran close to 2.5 seconds faster in the 800m under better weather conditions it is most likely Jakob also could have run significantly faster too.
Also Jakob ran a slow 1500m in Gateshead last year under very bad weather conditions but still beat Hoare, McSweyn and more in the process. And ran much faster later in the season.
And in the Bowerman Mile this year he "only" ran 3:49 due to windy conditions but ran more than 3 seconds faster in Bislett where there was almost no wind. So of course Jakob´s performances are dependent on the weather conditions.
You don´t seem to be able to have many thougts in your head in the same time:
You conviently overlook my statement that even the true 800m runners normally improve their season opener significantly. GIVE ME ONE 800M RUNNER WHO DIDN´T DO THIS IN 2022 AND I WILL SHOW YOU AT LEAST 10 WHO DID!
And why should Jakob be different from the vast majority.
You don´t know anything about Jakob´s current 200m and 400m PBs (I doubt he has run these distances for many years) but you are not shy of making some guesses which fit your agenda.
You state that 51 at 16 in the 400m is nothing more than what an averagely good schoolboy can do. That is not true. I checked the club records in my old (Scandinavian) athletics club and the 400m record run in age group 16-17 was 49. It was run by a 17 years old who was an international youth 400m hurdle runner and who went on to run 46.5 in the 400m and 800m in high 1:44.
He became a 2 times Olympian in the 800m (London and Rio) and 2 times European Silver medalist also in the 800m.
Jakob reportedly ran his 51 sec 400m in a Norwegian Youth Championships with no block start training so that time is probably not a true representation of his 400m potential at 16 anyway.
Of course Jakob is better in the 1500m than in the 800m but that doesn´t mean that he can´t run significantly faster in the 800m if he ran more competitions and under better conditions.
I won´t answer your question because I am not certain Jakob is "clearly a lot slower than Elliott and Snell". My guees is that Jakob can run sub 23 in the 200m with some block training.
I think Jakob is some slower than Snell who was a very powerful 800m/ 1500m runner but I don´t know why you think Jakob is slower than Elliott. I´m ready to answer if you can provide some documentation for your postulate.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

Cheryuiot has run 1.43 over the 800 - and it isn't his main event. That's what I might expect from one of the very best over the 1500. He appears to be in another realm from Jakob when it comes to speed. Jakob leaning towards the longer races doesn't fully explain it for me.

Cheruiyot is an 800/1500 runner who prioritized the 800 meters (4 races) in the 2019 season. He came up as an 800m runner in 2014 (1:45.9 at age 18) before becoming a full-time miler in 2015. Similar to his compatriot Abel Kipsang.

It seems like it was a conscious decision by him and his coach to go back to the 800 with some focus after his breakout 2018 season. There was extra runway with the super-late 1500m world final, and 2019 was Tim's absolute prime when it comes to health and continuous training.

Jakob arrived on the scene as a 1500-5000 runner, though he ran the 800 more in his mid-teens. Since becoming elite in 2018 though, the only year where he ran it more than just as a training exercise at the Norwegian championships is in 2020. He ran 1:46.44 then, and that was in a race he won fairly comfortably on June 30th. You are definitely being stubborn if you think a one-off 800 run before Jakob's absolute prime is his maximal effort. As other posters have noted, most runner require at least 2-3 800m races before hitting their best time of the season. They also need optimal conditions and sharpness. Until Jakob runs an 800m all-out in that scenario, his PB is going to be slower than his capability. This isn't that unusual for 1500m runners to have a misleading 800m best. Especially if their strength is their endurance not speed.

Nick Willis for instance, would time trial 800s before his peak 1500 efforts instead of putting down what would like be his PBs. He has a 1:45.54 from 2004, but I've heard him intimate he's run as fast or faster in those time trials. Unless Jakob prioritizes a fast 800m time by racing it multiple times one of these years, he might be stuck at 1:46.4. How is this possible? Lack of racing opportunities and focus on the event? Combine this with his exceptional endurance that has him as a 7:25/12:45 guy waiting to happen. That means he can run 3:30 and 13:00 with not much pace-specific work.

Armstronglivs wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

Cheruiyot is an 800/1500 runner who prioritized the 800 meters (4 races) in the 2019 season. He came up as an 800m runner in 2014 (1:45.9 at age 18) before becoming a full-time miler in 2015. Similar to his compatriot Abel Kipsang.

It seems like it was a conscious decision by him and his coach to go back to the 800 with some focus after his breakout 2018 season. There was extra runway with the super-late 1500m world final, and 2019 was Tim's absolute prime when it comes to health and continuous training.

Jakob arrived on the scene as a 1500-5000 runner, though he ran the 800 more in his mid-teens. Since becoming elite in 2018 though, the only year where he ran it more than just as a training exercise at the Norwegian championships is in 2020. He ran 1:46.44 then, and that was in a race he won fairly comfortably on June 30th. You are definitely being stubborn if you think a one-off 800 run before Jakob's absolute prime is his maximal effort. As other posters have noted, most runner require at least 2-3 800m races before hitting their best time of the season. They also need optimal conditions and sharpness. Until Jakob runs an 800m all-out in that scenario, his PB is going to be slower than his capability. This isn't that unusual for 1500m runners to have a misleading 800m best. Especially if their strength is their endurance not speed.

Nick Willis for instance, would time trial 800s before his peak 1500 efforts instead of putting down what would like be his PBs. He has a 1:45.54 from 2004, but I've heard him intimate he's run as fast or faster in those time trials. Unless Jakob prioritizes a fast 800m time by racing it multiple times one of these years, he might be stuck at 1:46.4. How is this possible? Lack of racing opportunities and focus on the event? Combine this with his exceptional endurance that has him as a 7:25/12:45 guy waiting to happen. That means he can run 3:30 and 13:00 with not much pace-specific work.

I quite understand that Cheryuiot has had a focus in the 800 - he has the necessary speed for the distance, as his 1.43 has shown. Jakob hasn't focussed on it - because he doesn't have that kind of speed (which has been my main point). He would not be competitive over the distance. I don't dispute that he could run faster than 1.47 in better conditions or improve on his best of 1.46.4. The question is, by how much? If you say 1.45-high I might agree, but 1.44x I would see as extremely unlikely. He simply hasn't shown that kind of speed in his races; he is about strength and endurance. So are you saying he is a "fast" 1500 runner or are you effectively agreeing with me, that he is relatively "slow" for a top competitor in that event?

slowwer wrote:

Armstronglivs wrote:

You didn't read my previous post on this, or understand it. I was referring to the shoes runners like Snell and Ryun used, not those that preceded the latest innovation, and I combined this with the tracks the 60's athletes ran on, of dirt and grass. The difference from today's times would easily be 2 seconds. Lydiard estimated that Snell's 1.44.3 on grass in 1962 was worth 1.42x on modern tracks.

Perhaps you can explain how this is "arrogant" to point out? Or is it only arrogant if you or others don't agree?

You have proved to be extremely arrogant on dozens of threads over the years.

JI has ran TWO 800m races in the last FOUR seasons: 1:46.44 at age 19 in an empty stadium during covid and the current 1:47 in Bergen. Like others have shown, he probably can run sub 1:46 right now in good conditions. With little concentration probably around 1:45 I would estimate.

Still on the slow side, yes. But he is an endurance monster.

I doubt 800m times are 2 seconds fsster now than in the 60s because of shoes and tracks. At least not when compared to a well kept grass track.