I’m doing one for Athing Mu but that’s it. I’ll be conservative and say she’ll get 4:30-4:35. If she gets anything under 4:27 it’ll shock me.
I’m doing one for Athing Mu but that’s it. I’ll be conservative and say she’ll get 4:30-4:35. If she gets anything under 4:27 it’ll shock me.
Tough Cookie wrote:
why not 8 wrote:
Guys seriously the more I think about it I'm surprised the story isn't that she's ducking the 8. Obviously her training times in the 800m are telling her she might lose. And rather than take a loss in her best event she's going to stay safe
This is obviously why she is running the mile instead of the 800. Losing a mile race is a non issue, but potentially losing an 800 is a bigger deal and she doesn't want to risk it.....
This year she is peaking for the World Championships in mid-July. So she is way behind on her speedwork right now compared to last year.
That's a nice little narrative y'all got there, except we don't know if any of this is true.
It's much more likely that she wants to try her hand at the mile because she can and also because it'll present more of a challenge to than trouncing the 800m field by 25 meters
Tough Cookie wrote:
Also, last year she was peaking for the NCAA Indoor Championships in mid-March in order to score as many points for her college team in order to try to win a team national championship.
This year she is peaking for the World Championships in mid-July. So she is way behind on her speedwork right now compared to last year.
Are Wilson and Goule not eventually peaking for Worlds in mid July?
Just. So. Wrong.
There is no reason to think that anyone else in the 800 field has any real chance of going much under 1:59. (Just look at PBs, recent performances, and/or historical opening performances for any of the athletes in the field.)
Many people have commented on her 4:37 workout last week being basically equivalent to her 4:16 at the duel meet 1500 on April 3, 2001. (I think one of the main reasons they were alike is that neither easy win was close to what she was capable of running time-wise, but let’s ignore that for a second.)
Well, guess what she ran for 800 only TWO weeks later on April 17, 2021???
Her 1:57.73 collegiate record.
In her season-opening attempt at the distance.
In cold windy conditions (many sprinters and relay teams withdrew from events because it was so bad).
With no competition or pacing.
(I’d say the terrible conditions and lack of competition or pacing make the performance equivalent to a 1:56; but certainly indicated fitness far more impressive than the actual finish time.)
And y’all think that her equivalent time for the mile means she’s somehow so out of shape now that she’s decided to switch events? She just can’t hang with a past-her-prime 27-year old woman who hasn’t run faster indoors than 1:59 in two years and a bunch of others who’ve never run even that fast indoors?!?!
Y’all are bad at this commenting on track thing. Geez, just stop.
Jo72 wrote:
Tough Cookie wrote:
Also, last year she was peaking for the NCAA Indoor Championships in mid-March in order to score as many points for her college team in order to try to win a team national championship.
This year she is peaking for the World Championships in mid-July. So she is way behind on her speedwork right now compared to last year.
Are Wilson and Goule not eventually peaking for Worlds in mid July?
Of course they (and every other legit pro 800 runner) are doing that, too! Which is why it’s a terrible basis for thinking Wilson, Goule, or any other legit pro would have an advantage over her right now.
Indeed, Mu would solidly beat both women at any stage of their similar build-ups between now and the WCs.
Just like she did (or, in the case of indoors, would have) last year in training for a season that went to late August with the Olympics and Pre.
Coach Mallard and her coaching team are unlikely to change that much of her basic (highly successful!) training approach when aiming for a peak that’s even EARLIER in the summer this year. The only major difference is the racing schedule, a change which is advantageous for her in allowing her to be much more selective and individualized than her collegiate racing season last year.
Again, last April, she ran her 1:57 collegiate record in terrible conditions only TWO weeks after her equivalent 1500 race last April. It’s preposterous to think she’s ducking anyone when likely in similar if not better fitness now. Much more plausible that she knows she didn’t come close to her mile ceiling in the workout last week and wants to take on a much more interesting and eye opening challenge this week on a big stage in front of her Jersey-based family and friends.
This is likely the only chance she may have to run in a big-time women’s mile this season so she’s pushing her chips to the center of the table.
If she’s even close to fit, then she can go after the American 800 indoor record and maybe the 1000 meter world record at a home A&M meet or some other random indoor meet in the coming weeks. Much harder to find a well-timed opportunity to make a big splash in a prestigious mile!
Armstrongleaves wrote:
Jo72 wrote:
Are Wilson and Goule not eventually peaking for Worlds in mid July?
Of course they (and every other legit pro 800 runner) are doing that, too! Which is why it’s a terrible basis for thinking Wilson, Goule, or any other legit pro would have an advantage over her right now.
Indeed, Mu would solidly beat both women at any stage of their similar build-ups between now and the WCs.
Just like she did (or, in the case of indoors, would have) last year in training for a season that went to late August with the Olympics and Pre.
Coach Mallard and her coaching team are unlikely to change that much of her basic (highly successful!) training approach when aiming for a peak that’s even EARLIER in the summer this year. The only major difference is the racing schedule, a change which is advantageous for her in allowing her to be much more selective and individualized than her collegiate racing season last year.
Again, last April, she ran her 1:57 collegiate record in terrible conditions only TWO weeks after her equivalent 1500 race last April. It’s preposterous to think she’s ducking anyone when likely in similar if not better fitness now. Much more plausible that she knows she didn’t come close to her mile ceiling in the workout last week and wants to take on a much more interesting and eye opening challenge this week on a big stage in front of her Jersey-based family and friends.
This is likely the only chance she may have to run in a big-time women’s mile this season so she’s pushing her chips to the center of the table.
If she’s even close to fit, then she can go after the American 800 indoor record and maybe the 1000 meter world record at a home A&M meet or some other random indoor meet in the coming weeks. Much harder to find a well-timed opportunity to make a big splash in a prestigious mile!
You’ve surrendered your privilege to ever accuse someone else of bloviating, dude.
Can’t wait till she runs approximately 4:30 for 10th place.
On the subject of why she switched to the mile, my gut feeling is that trouncing Ajee and stealing her American Record this weekend just doesn’t appeal to Mu, to her credit as an athlete and a person. She’s the rare competitive spirit who would rather challenge herself and get soundly beaten at an off-distance than run four victory laps in the 800.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Armstrongleaves wrote:
Of course they (and every other legit pro 800 runner) are doing that, too! Which is why it’s a terrible basis for thinking Wilson, Goule, or any other legit pro would have an advantage over her right now.
Indeed, Mu would solidly beat both women at any stage of their similar build-ups between now and the WCs.
Just like she did (or, in the case of indoors, would have) last year in training for a season that went to late August with the Olympics and Pre.
Coach Mallard and her coaching team are unlikely to change that much of her basic (highly successful!) training approach when aiming for a peak that’s even EARLIER in the summer this year. The only major difference is the racing schedule, a change which is advantageous for her in allowing her to be much more selective and individualized than her collegiate racing season last year.
Again, last April, she ran her 1:57 collegiate record in terrible conditions only TWO weeks after her equivalent 1500 race last April. It’s preposterous to think she’s ducking anyone when likely in similar if not better fitness now. Much more plausible that she knows she didn’t come close to her mile ceiling in the workout last week and wants to take on a much more interesting and eye opening challenge this week on a big stage in front of her Jersey-based family and friends.
This is likely the only chance she may have to run in a big-time women’s mile this season so she’s pushing her chips to the center of the table.
If she’s even close to fit, then she can go after the American 800 indoor record and maybe the 1000 meter world record at a home A&M meet or some other random indoor meet in the coming weeks. Much harder to find a well-timed opportunity to make a big splash in a prestigious mile!
You’ve surrendered your privilege to ever accuse someone else of bloviating, dude.
Can’t wait till she runs approximately 4:30 for 10th place.
On the subject of why she switched to the mile, my gut feeling is that trouncing Ajee and stealing her American Record this weekend just doesn’t appeal to Mu, to her credit as an athlete and a person. She’s the rare competitive spirit who would rather challenge herself and get soundly beaten at an off-distance than run four victory laps in the 800.
Ha! Fair point, I suppose. But, in fairness to myself, I never claimed I wasn’t. :)
And I would also argue that providing facts and contextual details to support pretty much every claim I make hardly qualifies as “empty” blather. (Seriously, go back through my posts and find a major point that isn’t either abundantly obvious or substantiated with facts and arguments.)
What makes Armstronglivs insufferable is that he is always popping into these discussions, making the same unsubstantiated claims that lack any nuance or context, and then never owning up to it when called out on it.
I promise you I will come back on Saturday after the race and eat crow if I’m wrong in my (well-supported) prognostications.
Will you, John Wesley? I know Armsronglivs won’t…
Armstrongleaves wrote:
John Wesley Harding wrote:
Can’t wait till she runs approximately 4:30 for 10th place.
I promise you I will come back on Saturday after the race and eat crow if I’m wrong in my (well-supported) prognostications.
Many of you guys have a short memory. The beginning of 2021 Athing Mu was just another teenage 2:01 800m runner along the lines of recent 18/19yo Collier, Wilson-Perteete, Sammy Watson, etc. and none of them ended up doing anything at the professional level later in the year.
The beginning of last year Coach Mallard had no idea Athing Mu would run 1:55 in the summer. He was just training her to peak twice - indoor and outdoor NCAA championships because that's his job as an NCAA coach.
This year there is no need for Mu to peak until the summer. Mu has stated as two "possible" goals for this year which are to try to break the world record, and to try to do the 400/800 double at the world championships. In either case, trying to do a lot of speed work in January is not as important for her as it was last year when she needed to peak in mid-March for NCAA. So she won't follow the same training schedule that she did last year when she was trying to win the NCAA 400 in mid-March.
Mu is looking at the mile this weekend as part of her base work in order to build up to top shape this summer. This whole idea that she is going to run super fast in the mile for her New Jersey fans is way off base. John Wesley Harding is being realistic. Mu will be around 4:30 for 10th place.
Speak for yourself. Many of us were predicting Olympic medal at this time last year.
Right, just another teenage 800 runner…who just happened to run a 1:23 for an indoor 600m and missed the WR by .11 seconds…as a 16-year old.
I think that Coach Mallard and especially Coach Henry knew pretty well the level of talent they were getting with Mu (having coached past talents like Watson, Fray, Brazier, Dixon, and Miller) and had (well-justified!) confidence in their 800 program. Sure, maybe not that she would run 1:55 and win the Olympics after her freshman season; but go back and read/listen to interviews with Coach Henry very early on and they clearly expected to be training her through to the Olympics. And kudos to the staff for actually doing that in an exceedingly skillful and successful manner.
You may be right about her training approach this season but I know enough about the A&M 800m training approach to know that she’s not neglecting speed altogether.
Besides, it strains credulity to think that someone who ran a 400 in 48.32 only five months ago needs to do significant speed work in order to be able to dust any woman in the Millrose 800 field right now (who, again, are also training to peak at the Outdoor WCs). I could be forgetting someone, but has anyone else in that field EVER broken 53 for 400 (let alone 5 months ago)?
versy tile wrote:
Speak for yourself. Many of us were predicting Olympic medal at this time last year.
No, you weren't predicting that. You just made that up right now. As of Jan 26, 2021, Mu's PR in the 800 was only 2:01.07, which she had run just ten days earlier.
No one on Jan 26, 2021 was predicting 2:01PR Mu would win an Olympic medal, getting at least 3rd place against experienced pros like Ajee Wilson, Raven Rogers, Jemma Reekie, Natoya Goule, and all the Africans in the Olympics.
Armstrongleaves wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Is that English or entirely your own invention? It appears it is meant to substitute for the fact she has yet to run a respectable time for the mile.
Autocorrect…[sigh]
should have been “analogical reasoning”…
Your reply about Solinsky demonstrated a profound inability to reason using analogies. And you’ve demonstrated that same inability many other times.
The poster (“everyone’s dad”) was not claiming that Athing Mu “is” Chris Solinsky. (I feel really weird even having to type that sentence out; but the mental density exhibited in your reply unfortunately seems to require it.)
Rather, “everyone’s dad” was claiming that Mu may be “like” (See what I did there? That’s called an analogy!) Solinsky in at least one important respect—namely, in having a PB on paper that doesn’t adequately reflect the athlete’s capacity but will continue to be their official “PB” UNTIL they choose to go after it and have the right mix of conditions to express their far greater PB potential.
Given your reluctance to invest any time in disabusing yourself of fallacious reasoning, I doubt this recommended link will get a new click from you, but here goes nothing.
https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/reasoning-analogy/There are many other web resources on the topic that are even more basic if that one is too much for you to handle.
It always amuses me to be condescended to by someone who isn't nearly as bright as they think they are. My response about Solinsky is that what one runner achieves means nothing in regard to what another does. They are two different people. The writer could have referred to anyone - the argument is irrelevant. It isn't an analogy, which is taking two unrelated subjects to make a point, such as that your insistence on being correct about events that haven't happened is akin to a fortune-teller claiming events have already passed because they have been foretold. We shall see what happens with your fortune-telling. I wouldn't call it analysis.
Your adulation knows no limits. You must be a member of her family, otherwise there is no rational basis for such an obsession.
NoNotReally wrote:
versy tile wrote:
Speak for yourself. Many of us were predicting Olympic medal at this time last year.
No, you weren't predicting that. You just made that up right now. As of Jan 26, 2021, Mu's PR in the 800 was only 2:01.07, which she had run just ten days earlier.
No one on Jan 26, 2021 was predicting 2:01PR Mu would win an Olympic medal, getting at least 3rd place against experienced pros like Ajee Wilson, Raven Rogers, Jemma Reekie, Natoya Goule, and all the Africans in the Olympics.
And the past must repeat itself, she must make another huge jump in improvement, because that is what she did in 2021? Still fortune-telling, I see.
NoNotReally wrote:
versy tile wrote:
Speak for yourself. Many of us were predicting Olympic medal at this time last year.
No, you weren't predicting that. You just made that up right now. As of Jan 26, 2021, Mu's PR in the 800 was only 2:01.07, which she had run just ten days earlier.
No one on Jan 26, 2021 was predicting 2:01PR Mu would win an Olympic medal, getting at least 3rd place against experienced pros like Ajee Wilson, Raven Rogers, Jemma Reekie, Natoya Goule, and all the Africans in the Olympics.
Maybe could use a wee bit more charity in your interpretation here, bud. I don’t think versy tile was meaning literally 365 days ago but rather just in the early portion of 2021.
Regardless, there were certainly discussions all over the place about her potential to make the Olympic team in the 800, if not medal.
After all:
On January 23, she broke the 40-year old collegiate record running 1:25 in the 600.
On January 30, she split 50.03 in the 4x4.
On February 6, she set the U-20 World Record in the indoor 400.
On February 27, she broke the collegiate indoor record and barely missed the American indoor record in the 800 in 1:58.40.
It was not crazy to be thinking about Olympic (medal) potential at some point in that stretch.
Armstronglivs wrote:
Your adulation knows no limits. You must be a member of her family, otherwise there is no rational basis for such an obsession.
Ha! Yes, I suppose I am as part of the extended Texas A&M Aggie family. Biological family, unfortunately not.
Call my “adulation” a mixture of:
(A) being a proud alum of her same university and carefully following her career since her early recruitment days,
(B) being appropriately impressed by the historically unprecedented accomplishments of a genuinely decent and awesome 19-year old woman (you know, double Olympic golds, multi-time NCAA champion and record holder in numerous events, Bowerman Award winner, 48.32 for the fastest 400m split in years, 1:23 as a 16-year old for 600m, 1:55.04 for 800m, and even 2nd place at the National AAU XC 5K race as a 15-year old “non-endurance athlete”) and
(C) being appropriately annoyed by you and your cynical, joyless, and contextually-deficient approach to the sport.
Good thing we’ll have a much clearer answer to all of the questions about her mile potential in 60 some hours, though.
I just rewatched her “mile race” from last Saturday and re-examined the strategy for her splits. I’m not sweating my prediction of sub-4:27 at all.
On 2/13/21 I predicted she’d win Olympic bronze under the unregistered handle “no pressure.” Obviously she’s thus far exceeded my expectations.
Good work. We are going through a similar situation again with the same crowd doubting her. They tell us that we are crazy for predicting her upside while telling us we couldn't have predicted her upside last year. Go Athing!
I think anywhere from 4:26-4:30 is a pretty realistic goal for her, while sub-4:25 would be a bit too optimistic, and no way would she break 4:20 (at least for now).
NoNotReally wrote:
Armstrongleaves wrote:
I promise you I will come back on Saturday after the race and eat crow if I’m wrong in my (well-supported) prognostications.
Many of you guys have a short memory. The beginning of 2021 Athing Mu was just another teenage 2:01 800m runner along the lines of recent 18/19yo Collier, Wilson-Perteete, Sammy Watson, etc. and none of them ended up doing anything at the professional level later in the year.
The beginning of last year Coach Mallard had no idea Athing Mu would run 1:55 in the summer. He was just training her to peak twice - indoor and outdoor NCAA championships because that's his job as an NCAA coach.
This year there is no need for Mu to peak until the summer. Mu has stated as two "possible" goals for this year which are to try to break the world record, and to try to do the 400/800 double at the world championships. In either case, trying to do a lot of speed work in January is not as important for her as it was last year when she needed to peak in mid-March for NCAA. So she won't follow the same training schedule that she did last year when she was trying to win the NCAA 400 in mid-March.
Mu is looking at the mile this weekend as part of her base work in order to build up to top shape this summer. This whole idea that she is going to run super fast in the mile for her New Jersey fans is way off base. John Wesley Harding is being realistic. Mu will be around 4:30 for 10th place.
Recall that Jemma Reekie ran 4:17 in the 2020 Wanamaker. In contention for the win until the final lap when Purrier & Koko pulled away. Did she enter that race on a lark, for over-distance training, or because she wasn't 800m sharp? As far as I can tell, there was no need for her to peak until the summer either. Reekie was training with Laura Muir at the time, but does anyone know how her build up for that race compares to Mu's workouts/workload the past 6-8 weeks? Entering a high profile mile if her training indicates she can't go sub-4:30 doesn't seem likely.