This thread was originally titled, "Incredible development in the $612,000 Transcon Goodge run, currently ongoing" but the new title is more descriptive. The description of the run is here.
so I have taken 20 major ultra/endurance stars and 100 random runs of theirs [5 each], and checked their HR data. Every single one of the 100 runs, over some 4,000kms was clean as a whistle. Not a single anomaly in sight for a clean HR strike rate of 100%.
It lays to rest once and for all the absurd premise that monitors are faulty, unreliable or hopeless as some would like you believe. No data crashes, no prolonged weirdness... I could barely find a single K that looked out of place, let alone an unclean run.
To ensure randomness I just took the 12 birthdays of the last four presidents, UK PMs and The Beatles on rotation. Obviously the mission would have been far less valuable if on the day in question the athlete did an easy 5k, but two days earlier he won a 100 miler; so I've gone with the latter in a case like that, and used the birthdays as a steer. This also gives the monitor a far increased chance to fail. Rakonczay wasn't up to much on John Lennon's birthday for instance, but a few days out he did a 351k scamper in 45 hours! I plunked for that. Another runner was clearly just playing with his dog in the park on the day for 2k in 40 mins, but a few days earlier won a 100 miler. I let the doggie go, and went for the 100m.
The data mass is too large to produce here and Excel and this board really don't agree, but this is a snapshot of what I've done. The initials after the runner are the birthday in question, ie, BO is Obama:
[Name, birthday initial, distance, HR, Peak HR
Aleksandr Sorokin RSU 100k 152 166 [100k world record, 6:05]
Michael Wardian DT 82k 125 163
Tom Evans GH 174k 133 167
Adam Kimble PM 157k 127 164
Gabor Rakonczay JL 351k 130 163
Nick Coury DT 166k 155 180
Robbie Britton BO 177k 137 149
Annie Hughes RST 49k 142 160
Ollie Garrod TM 42k 172 177
Jim Walmsley LT 119k 146 166
Timmy Zhou RSU 163k 135 159
Arlen Glick PM 132k 148 157
Pete Kostelnick TM 65k 132 146 [Transcon]
Carla Molinaro JL 25k 159 171
I did 5 each for Balenger and Goodge - fine of course - they always are outside of these events. Goodge had a super high average HR of 150, right up there at the top almost. Most are around 135-140 [RB 139.4].
The list was absorbing to compile - so many juggernauts - all dedicated to their craft. Guess how many runs Ollie Garrod has done since 2013? 6,930. Do the math on that one!
So there it is, 20 random runners, 100 runs, 4,000 kms and no unclean HR data.
Meanwhile RB and WG's clean data since 2019 for their Multiday fundraisers and some 14,000kms comes in at just 10%, which includes the 48/30 marathons, Jogle and RBs Transcon.
One day, and this day may well come soon, they are going to have to answer for that. Meanwhile, Mr Goodge has his upcoming year planned: 12 different countries in 12 months, to enjoy the local festivals, customs and cuisines... oh, and learn to surf, sky dive, free dive and ride a moterbike.
When he was a model, he was broke and living off credit. He's not broke any more.
Hi ROJO, thank you for joining us. Here's a summary of my post from yesterday, which speaks of how bizarre it is that for four years, over 5 events, two runners, 6+ watches raising tens of thousands for their Go Fund Me, and attracting up to 10 sponsors, that they return a clean heart rate of just 10% at these events.
I took 20 top ultrarunners doing 100 random runs, including some absolute beasts like a 350k, the 100k WR or Kostelnick at Transcon, that they returned clean data of 100%. There wasn't a single one that even suggested a glitch or "tech fail", despite Goodge and Balenger's supporters liking to peddle the theory that monitors are hopeless and never work.
Yesterday's run is perfect snapshot of the last 4 years, since we first saw this pattern emerge on day 5 of Balenger's Transcon in 2019, after he had a horror on day 4. On 5, a short day, his rate collapses after his buddy leaves, from 145 to 100 for the rest of the day, and this has been the precise modus operandi for these two ever since.
Yesterday was an outrageous 70 mile day, but with no tracker, and an HR that was clean for 10 miles [145 avg - just like RB 4 long years ago], but then crashed to an average of 105 for the rest of the day [just like RB], and some incredibly hot pace, like a 5:26K on the flat off an HR of 113bmp.
Hope this helps, feel free to drop me a line of FB or Insta, or of course here.
so I have taken 20 major ultra/endurance stars and 100 random runs of theirs [5 each], and checked their HR data. Every single one of the 100 runs, over some 4,000kms was clean as a whistle. Not a single anomaly in sight for a clean HR strike rate of 100%.
It lays to rest once and for all the absurd premise that monitors are faulty, unreliable or hopeless as some would like you believe. No data crashes, no prolonged weirdness... I could barely find a single K that looked out of place, let alone an unclean run.
To ensure randomness I just took the 12 birthdays of the last four presidents, UK PMs and The Beatles on rotation. Obviously the mission would have been far less valuable if on the day in question the athlete did an easy 5k, but two days earlier he won a 100 miler; so I've gone with the latter in a case like that, and used the birthdays as a steer. This also gives the monitor a far increased chance to fail. Rakonczay wasn't up to much on John Lennon's birthday for instance, but a few days out he did a 351k scamper in 45 hours! I plunked for that. Another runner was clearly just playing with his dog in the park on the day for 2k in 40 mins, but a few days earlier won a 100 miler. I let the doggie go, and went for the 100m.
The data mass is too large to produce here and Excel and this board really don't agree, but this is a snapshot of what I've done. The initials after the runner are the birthday in question, ie, BO is Obama:
[Name, birthday initial, distance, HR, Peak HR
Aleksandr Sorokin RSU 100k 152 166 [100k world record, 6:05]
Michael Wardian DT 82k 125 163
Tom Evans GH 174k 133 167
Adam Kimble PM 157k 127 164
Gabor Rakonczay JL 351k 130 163
Nick Coury DT 166k 155 180
Robbie Britton BO 177k 137 149
Annie Hughes RST 49k 142 160
Ollie Garrod TM 42k 172 177
Jim Walmsley LT 119k 146 166
Timmy Zhou RSU 163k 135 159
Arlen Glick PM 132k 148 157
Pete Kostelnick TM 65k 132 146 [Transcon]
Carla Molinaro JL 25k 159 171
I did 5 each for Balenger and Goodge - fine of course - they always are outside of these events. Goodge had a super high average HR of 150, right up there at the top almost. Most are around 135-140 [RB 139.4].
The list was absorbing to compile - so many juggernauts - all dedicated to their craft. Guess how many runs Ollie Garrod has done since 2013? 6,930. Do the math on that one!
So there it is, 20 random runners, 100 runs, 4,000 kms and no unclean HR data.
Meanwhile RB and WG's clean data since 2019 for their Multiday fundraisers and some 14,000kms comes in at just 10%, which includes the 48/30 marathons, Jogle and RBs Transcon.
One day, and this day may well come soon, they are going to have to answer for that. Meanwhile, Mr Goodge has his upcoming year planned: 12 different countries in 12 months, to enjoy the local festivals, customs and cuisines... oh, and learn to surf, sky dive, free dive and ride a moterbike.
When he was a model, he was broke and living off credit. He's not broke any more.
Hi ROJO, thank you for joining us. Here's a summary of my post from yesterday, which speaks of how bizarre it is that for four years, over 5 events, two runners, 6+ watches raising tens of thousands for their Go Fund Me, and attracting up to 10 sponsors, that they return a clean heart rate of just 10% at these events.
I took 20 top ultrarunners doing 100 random runs, including some absolute beasts like a 350k, the 100k WR or Kostelnick at Transcon, that they returned clean data of 100%. There wasn't a single one that even suggested a glitch or "tech fail", despite Goodge and Balenger's supporters liking to peddle the theory that monitors are hopeless and never work.
Yesterday's run is perfect snapshot of the last 4 years, since we first saw this pattern emerge on day 5 of Balenger's Transcon in 2019, after he had a horror on day 4. On 5, a short day, his rate collapses after his buddy leaves, from 145 to 100 for the rest of the day, and this has been the precise modus operandi for these two ever since.
Yesterday was an outrageous 70 mile day, but with no tracker, and an HR that was clean for 10 miles [145 avg - just like RB 4 long years ago], but then crashed to an average of 105 for the rest of the day [just like RB], and some incredibly hot pace, like a 5:26K on the flat off an HR of 113bmp.
Hope this helps, feel free to drop me a line of FB or Insta, or of course here.
Cheers, Will Cockerell
His HR yesterday was bizarre.
Can anyone explain the normal pattern for about 10 miles then it just goes weirdly low. If my watch has ever gone weird it's been from the very start and it will read high (with cadence). 70 miles in a faster pace than he's been doing 50s too? I wonder...
requesting cancellation is typical tactic of people who cant argue the facts.
There's no "facts" to argue when Will Cockerell is just repeatedly making up fake numbers to keep the thread going.
Reading through this thread, I'm now convinced that I was wrong to ever doubt this man and that you've been right all along. I really don't understand why I could ever think that.............
Damn it, couldn't keep a straight face for longer than that.
Your boy is cheating bro. You're that invested that I'm certain you already know that.
These people are always cheats. I don't understand the debate here, if they're not really runners and they do these high profile 'charity' instagram challenges, they're cheating.
It's not even a 90% certainty, this is virtually 100%. It's crazy talk to suggest he's doing this legitimately.
Yes, a small comparison is that on day 17 directly after I'd written to them to say I might report them for wire fraud if they continued like this, he ran:
76.8k at 8:34 pace with 978 of climbing, and a [clean] HR of 130.
Yesterday:
112.6k at 7:52 pace, with 1787m of climbing, and an HR of 111.
The John Lees record of 53.8 days is now possible again. An all-night bender could just do it.
Yowsa. Yesterday 70 miles. With only 52 minutes break time. Moving pace of 12:40m Meanwhile, the other current transcon runner (Timmy Zhou) who has a faster Marathon PR is sharing how brutal and grueling his transcon is as he runs only about 37 miles per day at 14:00pace.
When you look at the rate at which Goodge is improving at light speed and obliterating this transcon as if it is child's play, it causes me to wonder. Why would he take the future off from these Ultra/superhuman events to travel the world?
If he truly did find the recipe for success, why not take out the fastest times in these global events? Why not keep fundraising and go for the top spots in the world at all these distances?
Goodge needs to get a trademark on "negative split". Maybe change his web page from Audacious report to Negative Split Headquarters because he is negative split king.
Every day is a negative split. His Heart rate does it's own form of negative split by dropping 25-30% as these all day events progress. And now it looks like the entire challenge will be a monumental negative split as he covers 70+ miles to bring it home. While the rest of the running world fatigues as an event progresses. This superhuman becomes more relaxed over time.
Hell. It wouldn't surprise me if he runs a sub 3 hour marathon to set a personal marathon PR in his final 26.2 miles running into Times square.
Sports physiologists need to drop what they are doing and study this guy. He has mastered endurance fitness.
Goodge needs to get a trademark on "negative split". Maybe change his web page from Audacious report to Negative Split Headquarters because he is negative split king.
Every day is a negative split. His Heart rate does it's own form of negative split by dropping 25-30% as these all day events progress. And now it looks like the entire challenge will be a monumental negative split as he covers 70+ miles to bring it home. While the rest of the running world fatigues as an event progresses. This superhuman becomes more relaxed over time.
Hell. It wouldn't surprise me if he runs a sub 3 hour marathon to set a personal marathon PR in his final 26.2 miles running into Times square.
Then dip his fingers in the Atlantic Ocean and leg it back to LA in 30 days...
Just a small point - the historians have dug deep to get the precise Lees time, which is 53:12:15, so NOT 53.8 days as the USA crossers site relates, but 53.5.
So, around 7.25 hours less to play with. He'd basically need to bomb it straight through from right about now.
Can't believe we're even having to talk like this!
Just a small point - the historians have dug deep to get the precise Lees time, which is 53:12:15, so NOT 53.8 days as the USA crossers site relates, but 53.5.
So, around 7.25 hours less to play with. He'd basically need to bomb it straight through from right about now.
Can't believe we're even having to talk like this!
He has about 330 km to go from near where he last stopped at Carlisle PA, so most likely 3 more days?
About that. He will have a much higher daily tally than Lees. He has run 2860 miles in 52, and Lees only did 2876 overall. Most come in at around low 2900. No idea why the bigger miles for this one.
But it's definitely something else to look out for: the leaderboard of daily rates. He could move into the top 8! He's going to wipe-out that trio of 53 day men, as they all went around 2900m.
This post was edited 4 minutes after it was posted.
I'm stating my position here following (too many, in all honesty) weeks of giving Goodge a glimmer of a benefit of a doubt: I think he's cheating. I think a select few on his team are in on it.
My primary contention is the consistency of the heart rate and performance changes at specific times: that they can produce notably 'cleaner' data when pressed to, suggesting they know what's causing it yet don't care to fix it.
We know, from the myriad data of his training runs and those specific times that he isn't physically capable of the low HR spells at the pace he's doing them. Ergo, that data is wrong. We know that the data is consistently right when they're pressed to make it consistently right. We've seen his performance struggle during those periods, and we've seen a flagrant rebounding towards the dodgy data THE MOMENT the dynamic changed. Yesterday is a prime example of this.
I also don't think he's physically capable of producing these faster speeds, not least with the apparent lack of fatigue. This isn't about 'wanting it', or 'mindset', it's about a huge amount of data showcasing his physiological ability relative to 1) his performances here, and 2) the performances of demonstrably better runners (are they just lacking the 'mindset'?).
Combined with the way the run itself is being conducted (route, tracking), there are just too many red flags.
Just started paying attention to this thread as someone emailed me about joining them to expose this as a fraud. A few questions as I don't have time to read 80+ pages.
1) Is everyone pretty much certain it's a fraud? 2) How in the world can their be debate after a month of running? 3) Wouldn't someone just have to find them and drive next to them for like 6 hours to see if it's legit or not? 4) What are the biggest red flags besides not publishing their route? I mean that is HIGHLY suspicious.
Stunned, we are even debating it at this point.
1) About 90% of posters believe something strange is happening. 90% of Goodge's Instagram followers believe it is legit.
2) Because the only smoking guns are heart rate data that looks impossible during the second half of running days and Goodge doesn't look like an ultra runner or have ultra pedigree.
3) That has been done by boots Will for a few days and there was nothing to note during that time besides accurate HR data and a slow pace.
4) For me the main red flag is satellite tracker stays in one of three vehicles, not on the runner as is customary.
It seems to be too late now to follow the team as Goodge could easily walk to NYC from here, only four or five days to go.
3) How much slower was he on the days he was tracked? That's the obvious tell.
Just started paying attention to this thread as someone emailed me about joining them to expose this as a fraud. A few questions as I don't have time to read 80+ pages.
1) Is everyone pretty much certain it's a fraud? 2) How in the world can their be debate after a month of running? 3) Wouldn't someone just have to find them and drive next to them for like 6 hours to see if it's legit or not? 4) What are the biggest red flags besides not publishing their route? I mean that is HIGHLY suspicious.
Stunned, we are even debating it at this point.
Thank you, Rojo!
1) About 80% of us are convinced it’s a fraud. 10% unsure and 10% are believers.
2) The 10% who are believers are very vocal and persistent. Or possibly just trolling.
3) Goodge is hard to find because he doesn’t wear a tracker. The tracker is on one of their three vans, which can be miles ahead (and able to alert Goodge that someone is looking for him). Also: the crew was hostile towards the OP, who flew out from the UK to observe Goodge. They mocked him in one of their Youtube videos, and they threw rocks at him.
4) Red flags besides the issues with the route are Goodge not wearing a tracker, irregularities in heart rate and pace data, Goodge being a mediocre runner, one instance of his starting point one day being ahead of his end point the previous day, Goodge exaggerating his running accomplishments, Goodge running incognito by covering his entire head, Goodge promoting what most of us believe is a snake oil product (Nu Calm), Goodge showing no signs of fatigue or struggle, and a crew of other ultra runners who could conceivably mule for him.
Ok. Basic logci says there would be no reason to be hostile to someone doubting you. If I was legit, I'd say run next to me.
What type of challenge could we offer him to embarrass him? Offer some sort of cash reward. We'll give you $5,000 to run x in x? But is he even running for charity. What made me suspicious was it looked like the whole thing was set up to sell some snakeoil product.
Thank you for your candour bedsbucks. In the words of General Melchett you have "pumped me thoroughly in the debriefing room", and have remained very neutral, and I believe used to know him back in the day. Glad to have your support.
--------------------------
On another note, this to all, could someone please let me know of their experience with Trackers? Balenger's excuse is that they're bulky and unwearable, but is that really the case? WG would often run dressed like a fisherman for one...
The two WR holders at Jogle wore them - about 90% of Joglers wear them. How bad can they really be? What is the gizmo that the great website Opentracker provides people with? Do they send a heavy brick through the post and say: "wear this!"
What precisely are we talking about here, that has so put Balenger off?
Thank you for your candour bedsbucks. In the words of General Melchett you have "pumped me thoroughly in the debriefing room", and have remained very neutral, and I believe used to know him back in the day. Glad to have your support.
--------------------------
On another note, this to all, could someone please let me know of their experience with Trackers? Balenger's excuse is that they're bulky and unwearable, but is that really the case? WG would often run dressed like a fisherman for one...
The two WR holders at Jogle wore them - about 90% of Joglers wear them. How bad can they really be? What is the gizmo that the great website Opentracker provides people with? Do they send a heavy brick through the post and say: "wear this!"
What precisely are we talking about here, that has so put Balenger off?
Thank you.
I wore a Garmin Inreach Mini attached to my running pack (and at times to the stroller I was pushing). It is a small device, maybe 2-3 oz - 1.5 inches long and 1.5 inches wide approximately. New versions of the Garmin tracker are even smaller I think. SPOT is another company that makes these things. Each company has their own website where you can follow along in real time. I had a few people come and find me on the road based on this tech.
here is the link and you must click "view all" to see the transcon track since it was 2 yrs ago.
Ok. Basic logci says there would be no reason to be hostile to someone doubting you. If I was legit, I'd say run next to me.
What type of challenge could we offer him to embarrass him? Offer some sort of cash reward. We'll give you $5,000 to run x in x? But is he even running for charity. What made me suspicious was it looked like the whole thing was set up to sell some snakeoil product.
If the thing is legit, the runner will gladly provide all of his COROS data files for analysis, and an accounting with proof of payment to charities for the GoFundMe money he's raising.
