They would've beaten Jackson at Hot Summer Bash if they'd had Guerrera that day. 117-155, but Guerrera would take probably 40pts off their score, assuming he finishes top 10.
Jerome could go 1-2 on them - I watched Guerrera run away from Ilg in the 3200 at Jesse Owens last spring. After that... Jackson has several 4:35/10:10 guys - Prato, McNulty, and Huzyak - who finish about a minute behind Ilg each race. Jerome has a pack of 4 guys who finish about the same behind Guerrera.
And as stated, I think Guerra and Ilg and fairly close. Ricchuiti is easily #1 here.
So really... Jerome has not chance? You're crazy. That's just how deep region 3 is this year. Jerome could've finished top 5 in the state. Kilbourne top 10.
Any predictions for D1 Girls? Teams & Individuals?
The Lakota West junior, Evelyn Prodoehl, should easily win D1 girls. Nobody is really close to her. She seems to win every race by at least a minute. IIRC, she has gone under 17:00 twice this season.
I’ll need to give more thought to the team race before I prognosticate on that.
For a nice comp... Brock Farris from Boardman was 12 seconds back of Ilg at regionals, finishing 3rd. At the Berlin Bear Dash he was 46 seconds behind Gabelman, finishing 7th.
So really... Jerome has not chance? You're crazy. That's just how deep region 3 is this year. Jerome could've finished top 5 in the state. Kilbourne top 10.
The Central Ohio regional is good and all, very good, but let's not get carried away. I think it's a bit much to claim that Dublin Jerry can beat Mason, St. X, and Mass. Jackson on any given day.
I'm not one for hypotheticals and shoulda coulda woulda, but I am very much into cold, hard results that remain on the race report long after the ink has dried.
The point is Dublin Jerry couldn't even clear their regional, no matter how much of a gauntlet that regional is. If they really were good enough, they would have snagged one of those five spots on the day that they needed to. Everyone knows what that regional is, and everyone knows what it would take to clear that regional. This is a reason why I am getting on the Dublin Scioto bandwagon.
I maintain that it's a bit of a stretch to say that Dublin Jerry could make the podium at Obetz.
If you're on the starting line on Obetz . . . then you're on the starting line on Obetz.
And if you're not . . . then you're not.
This post was edited 11 minutes after it was posted.
I found this link interesting: Milesplit assigned speed ratings to each of the regional meets and combined them into one list. SRs aren't gospel, but I like them as the best attempt to compare different races. Reminder that 1 SR = 3 seconds.
My experience says that the team with the best 4 and/or 5 guy will win. Mason has best #5, while Mass Jackson has best #4. Not surprising that they would be most people's favorites. But really there is not much separating any of these teams. Should be an exciting one!
I think you might have mixed Mass. Perry athletes in with Jackson athletes in your listed speed ratings.
Regardless, these speed ratings seem weak. They seem to categorize the Tiffin, Troy, and Boardman courses as equal (the same time on those courses got the same rating), and categorized Pickerington as a little (6-8 seconds?) faster. I think most agree Boardman is the slowest course of the regional venues.
I think you might have mixed Mass. Perry athletes in with Jackson athletes in your listed speed ratings.
Regardless, these speed ratings seem weak. They seem to categorize the Tiffin, Troy, and Boardman courses as equal (the same time on those courses got the same rating), and categorized Pickerington as a little (6-8 seconds?) faster. I think most agree Boardman is the slowest course of the regional venues.
From what I read, they adjusted the Boardman times faster, the Pickerington times slower, and Tiffin and Troy stayed about equal. Which, I do think they could have given Boardman athletes a little more credit, and Tiffin athletes less.
I think the Regional courses go:
Tiffin (Fastest)
Pickerington
Troy
Boardman (Slowest)
I will say though that Boardman, Troy, and especially Pickerington seemed to run much faster than usual this year.
I think you might have mixed Mass. Perry athletes in with Jackson athletes in your listed speed ratings.
Regardless, these speed ratings seem weak. They seem to categorize the Tiffin, Troy, and Boardman courses as equal (the same time on those courses got the same rating), and categorized Pickerington as a little (6-8 seconds?) faster. I think most agree Boardman is the slowest course of the regional venues.
From what I read, they adjusted the Boardman times faster, the Pickerington times slower, and Tiffin and Troy stayed about equal. Which, I do think they could have given Boardman athletes a little more credit, and Tiffin athletes less.
I think the Regional courses go:
Tiffin (Fastest)
Pickerington
Troy
Boardman (Slowest)
I will say though that Boardman, Troy, and especially Pickerington seemed to run much faster than usual this year.
Pickerington "ran faster" only because that's where most of the best kids ran. It's the same course as always, and it was actually a bit soft from the rain. But with 4 D1 guys going sub 15 and one D2 kid (Walton) doing the same, it appears faster than previous years. I think the guys are just that much better.
I will say though that Boardman, Troy, and especially Pickerington seemed to run much faster than usual this year.
What made them faster was how dry things have been this past summer. The ground around the state is pretty firm. Even with the rain that was throughout Ohio on Friday & Saturday it wasn't enough to make the courses soft and/or sloppy. Ohio seems to usually have more rain in the fall than it has this year.
What makes Boardman tough is that hill that is shortly after the start. There is always oxygen debt occurring early in cross country races due to the fast starts but it is a bit more pronounced on the Boardman course, mostly because of that hill.
Pickerington "ran faster" only because that's where most of the best kids ran. It's the same course as always, and it was actually a bit soft from the rain.
Yeah, the best overall boys are in Central Ohio this year but Pickerington is always faster than Troy and, in particular, Boardman.
The same rain was throughout the state on all of the courses and the effect was negligible.
Pickerington "ran faster" only because that's where most of the best kids ran. It's the same course as always, and it was actually a bit soft from the rain.
Yeah, the best overall boys are in Central Ohio this year but Pickerington is always faster than Troy and, in particular, Boardman.
The same rain was throughout the state on all of the courses and the effect was negligible.
Agreed. I guess my point was that Pickerington - the course itself - was not notably faster this year than in previous years. Just that the athletes are significantly better. I think maybe only 1 or 2 had ever broken 15 there (Ackley and Andrew Jordan, maybe?), and this year five did. But yes, I think historically it's faster than Troy or Boardman.
Any predictions for D1 Girls? Teams & Individuals?
The Lakota West junior, Evelyn Prodoehl, should easily win D1 girls. Nobody is really close to her. She seems to win every race by at least a minute. IIRC, she has gone under 17:00 twice this season.
I’ll need to give more thought to the team race before I prognosticate on that.
So, after thinking a bit about it, I still say that Prodoehl will win D1 with Peer taking second. Peer seemed to have an off race at regional taking 3rd but Scheffler of Lake & Atkinson of Stow are also good and will contend for the runner-up spot. The Jerome athletes, Randolph & Fouts, may also contend for runner-up.
Prodoehl will gap the field early and win by over 30 seconds easily getting under the 17:25 course mark (if the weather is good) that Katie Clute ran last year. It would not surprise me if she were to run in the 16:50s.
For the team title, I'll take Davidson to beat Mason. Westlake, Perrysburg, Avon, & Shaker might all contend for the second spot as well. I had heard that Lakota West had some illnesses for the regional meet and were still just a few back from Mason so they should be up there as well.
Agreed. I guess my point was that Pickerington - the course itself - was not notably faster this year than in previous years. Just that the athletes are significantly better. I think maybe only 1 or 2 had ever broken 15 there (Ackley and Andrew Jordan, maybe?), and this year five did. But yes, I think historically it's faster than Troy or Boardman.
Yeah, good point.
Great memories of Jordan. I still consider him one of the top 5 ever from Ohio.
Curious to see if Ackley runs indoor or outdoor after redshirting this XC season.
