Just pointing out that at both NXN and FL, the girls upstaged some very strong boys competition with dramatic racing. We can truly say that girl's running has "arrived" as a self-sufficient phenomenon.
I haven't yet seen the Club Nationals race but I bet it only puts an exclamation point on this.
jed23 wrote:
Heady guy wrote:
You don't understand that predicting an outcome instead of rooting for an outcome are two different things. I am rooting for Tuohy to be an olympian but I don't think she will be. I was rooting for Harvard to win the NCAA XC championship this year but predicted that it wouldn't happen. You have a heart and a head even though most LR posters can't seperate the two.
You don't understand that your prediction makes absolutely no sense. She just ran a 20:11 6K in shitty weather, beat multiple pro athletes / former college All-Americans, and then say she'll have an okay career. You're commenting on a posted titled "Tuohy finishes second in pro 6K race" and find a reason to criticize.
Predicting Harvard, a team who controversially qualified due to the altered Northeast Regional course, would win the NCAA XC Championship would be foolish.
Predicting the best high school female cross country runner ever will have an okay / sub-par NCAA career is searching (or maybe even hoping) for misfortune.
Mascarelli did not defend her title yesterday and I (gladly) see she is receiving no criticism. Tuohy wins a 3rd consecutive XC National Championship (by less of a margin) and posters like you predict the end of her career. Rooting for the underdog or newfound star (Dudek) is fine. But comparing and downplaying the favorite (Tuohy) when you're probably some nobody male / female runner is stupid and unnecessary.
To be fair, no pro athlete is peaking for Club Nationals. Most pro athletes aren't doing any sort of preparation for an XC race - no hills, no grass workouts, no mud, etc.
It's disingenuous to compare Tuohy at her peak versus C level "pro" athletes who are racing for fun. Some of the "pro" athletes in that race are making a little money, but they certainly aren't making a living off of running.
fake news alert wrote:
jed23 wrote:
You don't understand that your prediction makes absolutely no sense. She just ran a 20:11 6K in shitty weather, beat multiple pro athletes / former college All-Americans, and then say she'll have an okay career. You're commenting on a posted titled "Tuohy finishes second in pro 6K race" and find a reason to criticize.
Predicting Harvard, a team who controversially qualified due to the altered Northeast Regional course, would win the NCAA XC Championship would be foolish.
Predicting the best high school female cross country runner ever will have an okay / sub-par NCAA career is searching (or maybe even hoping) for misfortune.
Mascarelli did not defend her title yesterday and I (gladly) see she is receiving no criticism. Tuohy wins a 3rd consecutive XC National Championship (by less of a margin) and posters like you predict the end of her career. Rooting for the underdog or newfound star (Dudek) is fine. But comparing and downplaying the favorite (Tuohy) when you're probably some nobody male / female runner is stupid and unnecessary.
To be fair, no pro athlete is peaking for Club Nationals. Most pro athletes aren't doing any sort of preparation for an XC race - no hills, no grass workouts, no mud, etc.
It's disingenuous to compare Tuohy at her peak versus C level "pro" athletes who are racing for fun. Some of the "pro" athletes in that race are making a little money, but they certainly aren't making a living off of running.
"To be fair"...to be fair to who? Do you have a problem with the thread title?
It was a 6k race? yes it was
There were pros in it? yes there was
Tuohy finished 2nd? yup, that happened too
Looks to me like the title of the post is fairly accurate. But thanks for using a big word like 'disingenuous'.
Tuohy ran 6 km at the same pace as the FL winners who ran 5km. Nope, sure nothing to celebrate there for her.
Hey do you really think those best pro runners in that race were only C Level
Cuffe runs for Saucony
And another Runner was a former NCAA 10K champion. But I honestly have no idea of their Pro credentials. Can you give a little more detail and less hyperbole
how many will be at the olympic trials this summer?
messi wrote:
calpa wrote:
Don’t you remember in September when she ran some “average” wins with okay times and people said she was burnt out.
She was gearing up for this, a long term goal for nxn and club nats
Video here (thank you Bob Pultorak - luv u man for doing this):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOTyZ6_9Vdc1. Conditions were not that bad.
2. Who is better conditioned for these conditions? Someone who has raced FREQUENTLY in these conditions = advantage Tuohy.
3. Pro's and open runners race cross country so INfrequently = advantage Tuohy again.
4. If this a road race Tuohy would have finished 10th. Again advantage Tuohy (because it WASN"T a road race).
5. Continue to be baffled by women who wear inappropriate kit for FRIGID conditions. Lookee here, the abdomen/core is the engine/the driver. If that is not warm, then nothing else is. If your stomach muscles are cold, then they cramp. Your breathing goes to your stomach (it only passes through your lungs). Your stomach is essentially a bellows. Deliberately exposing your belly button to wind chill, rain and frigidity is just plain dumb. The only American elite who dresses appropriate for the conditions is Desi. Unlike all the others she doesn't see herself as some vain, sex goddess.
6. Would these girls have burnt up in Bethlehem, PA in mid December t'were they t'wear a T shirt with racing vest over?
That would have been two layers to keep the engine/the core/the driver/the bellows comfy & snug.
No thanks necessary.
1. Conditions were pretty bad.
2. You have no idea who these conditions do or don't advantage. Tuohy and her coach both just told us she's got circulation problems and hates racing in the cold.
4. You don't have the faintest *clue* how the results might change on the road, and have zero evidence that Tuohy's worse on roads. Her county-champs course --where she's got the three fastest times ever by a huge margin-- is run more than half on pavement (you know, like a *road*), and she sure as hell looks pretty damn strong there.
A much smarter guess --considering the margins in this race-- is that if it's run on the roads, she comes in *second* --just like she did here.
For dim-witted analysis like that, no thanks given --or deserved.
Ezrun wrote:
Hey do you really think those best pro runners in that race were only C Level
Cuffe runs for Saucony
And another Runner was a former NCAA 10K champion. But I honestly have no idea of their Pro credentials. Can you give a little more detail and less hyperbole
Cuffe hasn't run a PR in the 5k since 2014 when I believe she was still in college. Last year Sydney Masciarelli beat Aisling Cuffe in a 3k. Natosha Rogers won the 10k at NCAA's in 2012 but quit running for years. She is not near her peak fitness right now.
The only other one from that race that looks like might be sponsored is Danielle Shanahan and I have never heard of her before. I doubt anyone has heard of her before.
Cuffe has had some good results this year. With the pros it depends on their health and training. Cuffe said back in November this is the healthiest she has been since college. A 6k is obviously a very different ball of wax than a 3k. High school runners don't run 6k races.
Rogers tried for the lead around the mid point but didn't have have the fitness yet to maintain it.
Didn't Erika Kemp win the 15k road championships this year? And she's posted some solid 5k results on the roads I think. Impressive that Tuohy beat her. She seems to be more endurance based than Tuohy.
What is even more impressive was that she ran this well a week after nxn in a 6k race. I think the idea was for her to run against a field of faster, more experienced runners at a longer distance and to lose the race. She almost blew that part of it.
YMMV wrote:
Just pointing out that at both NXN and FL, the girls upstaged some very strong boys competition with dramatic racing. We can truly say that girl's running has "arrived" as a self-sufficient phenomenon.
I haven't yet seen the Club Nationals race but I bet it only puts an exclamation point on this.
Certainly is the highest quality girls field i have seen. Great to see the girls get more attention.
Yeah I think the club cross race had some pretty good runners in it
Certainly not the elite American distance Runners butt some women who still have some potential and
Looks like a couple of them are full-time professionals?
When you have two or three runners who have 5K pr's of around 1510 that's pretty good
And it seems like they're more focused on their professional running than in the past couple of years
Let's not forget Tuohy ran a bunch of speed ratings in the high 170s with no competition
She might not quite be at that level right now but on a good day I'd have to think she could still hit like 174
warsaw wonder wrote:
Dudek would have broken 20 minutes on that course easily.
That is just objectively false. Dudek's Footlocker time was on pace for a 20:03 6k, but that was on a way faster day on a faster course. She wouldn't have come close to 20-flat, especially knowing that she had to cover an additional kilometer more than she was used to.
There is objective data to support it whether you like it or not. Ewert lost to Tuohy by 1 second. Dudek crushed Ewert. So if we assume that all runners had similar performances at the meets, that wold put Dudek under 20 minutes. You would have to argue that Tuohy had a bad performance at NXN or Ewert had a bad performance at Footlocker. That would be subjective on your part.
Or Dudek beat Starliper by a second and Tuohy beat her by much more. And beat Hart by more as well. You know, objective. LOL.
"Lies, dammed Lies and Statistics" ! (Mark Twain)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
messi wrote:
Video here (thank you Bob Pultorak - luv u man for doing this):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOTyZ6_9Vdc
Great video. Thanks
Best comment 15 seconds into the race. “There are some stragglers”
Here is my super-imprecise Speed Ratings guess (Tully wrote a note saying they won't do it, so this is just extrapolating from where I can). The Mayor's Cup this year was run with a few runners also doing Club Cross in roughly the same finishing areas. The two Hacketts (sisters? twins), Marino, Keyser-Gibson and Gong. They rated 141, 139, 136, 133, 132 at the Mayor's Cup.
If we gave the top-rated one of that quintet a 141 at Club Cross, it shakes out thusly:
3 seconds for each speed rating point:
Kaitlin Tuohy 20:06 170
...
Michaela Hackett 21:33 141
Allie Hackett 21:42 138
Amelia Keyser-Gibson 21:46 137
Maryann Gong 22:02 132
Caitlyn Marino 22:04 131.
Granted I'm going off of the Mayor's Cup this year, which Meylan wasn't exactly locked in on:
"Like last year, the speed ratings for this year are a best-guess, making the ratings somewhat uncertain ... I speed rated a couple of recent high school races at Franklin Park, and applied the race adjustment from those races to this race.
Last year, Sydney Masciarelli ran 17:04 (speed rating of 154) breaking Shalane Flanagan's HS course record of 17:08 ... This year, Masciarelli is rumored to have had some recent sickness issues before the race (I have no idea of the effect), but obviously newcomer Margot Appleton ran a super race!"
NOTE: I excluded one common finisher (Catarina Braz-Rocha) who way outperformed her run at Franklin Park (17:32 5K) at Club Cross(20:38) .
sp2 wrote:
messi wrote:
Video here (thank you Bob Pultorak - luv u man for doing this):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOTyZ6_9Vdc1. Conditions were not that bad.
2. Who is better conditioned for these conditions? Someone who has raced FREQUENTLY in these conditions = advantage Tuohy.
3. Pro's and open runners race cross country so INfrequently = advantage Tuohy again.
4. If this a road race Tuohy would have finished 10th. Again advantage Tuohy (because it WASN"T a road race).
5. Continue to be baffled by women who wear inappropriate kit for FRIGID conditions. Lookee here, the abdomen/core is the engine/the driver. If that is not warm, then nothing else is. If your stomach muscles are cold, then they cramp. Your breathing goes to your stomach (it only passes through your lungs). Your stomach is essentially a bellows. Deliberately exposing your belly button to wind chill, rain and frigidity is just plain dumb. The only American elite who dresses appropriate for the conditions is Desi. Unlike all the others she doesn't see herself as some vain, sex goddess.
6. Would these girls have burnt up in Bethlehem, PA in mid December t'were they t'wear a T shirt with racing vest over?
That would have been two layers to keep the engine/the core/the driver/the bellows comfy & snug.
No thanks necessary.
1. Conditions were pretty bad.
2. You have no idea who these conditions do or don't advantage. Tuohy and her coach both just told us she's got circulation problems and hates racing in the cold.
4. You don't have the faintest *clue* how the results might change on the road, and have zero evidence that Tuohy's worse on roads. Her county-champs course --where she's got the three fastest times ever by a huge margin-- is run more than half on pavement (you know, like a *road*), and she sure as hell looks pretty damn strong there.
A much smarter guess --considering the margins in this race-- is that if it's run on the roads, she comes in *second* --just like she did here.
For dim-witted analysis like that, no thanks given --or deserved.
You are so wrong on every level (but that is your right as an American):
1. Ask a Brit how bad conditions were. An experienced xc runner with recent experience (Tuohy) would be able to pick the right line to avoid what mud there was; the worst of it. Admittedly conditions worse than earlier races, but not brutal.
2. For an athlete who hates racing in the cold, Tuohy has a remarkably fine record of racing in the cold. Numerous NXN titles in frigid and damp Portland Oregon as one example. She certainly has experience racing in the cold. Why doesn't Tuohy race Footlocker if she hates the cold?
4. I am not saying Tuohy would have run worse on the roads, I am saying the pros would have run better on the roads ie. improved their performance for the very reasons I laid out. That they (the pros) have little RECENT experience with technical xc (and xc can be very technical compared to the roads).
Irregardless of my analysis (which is reasoned, insightful, and dead-on) I should still get thanks for posting that vid.
Only a small, petty man would think otherwise.
Irrespective, not irregardless.