They won't get it this year. But next year Rupp will get it, with full Nike support. I mean support you've never even dreamed of. That's the plan. Rupp ftw.
They won't get it this year. But next year Rupp will get it, with full Nike support. I mean support you've never even dreamed of. That's the plan. Rupp ftw.
I was a bit sceptic at the beginning; but perhaps this is possible, after all. Let's say Kipchoge is in 2:02:30 shape. He gets 1 min from the shoes, 1 min from the pacers and another 30 sec from nutrition/weather/ course design.
If the record won't count anyway why not run on a downhill course with a tailwind? At least then they have a chance.
Definitely sub 2:01. Probably sub 2:00.
No, it's not possible. Simple math should tell you that.
Runnnnner wrote:
I was a bit sceptic at the beginning; but perhaps this is possible, after all. Let's say Kipchoge is in 2:02:30 shape. He gets 1 min from the shoes, 1 min from the pacers and another 30 sec from nutrition/weather/ course design.
the key to this is this "mythical" 4% improved energy return of this new shoe
the conversion to speed is from considerations of drag & you have to take cubic root of 1.04 to get potential time improvement provided by shoe
-> 2"00'00 * ( 1.04 )^( 1/3 ) = 2"01'35
now choge looked capable of 2"02-low in london if not for getting slowed down in wasteful duel with biwott who he thrashed & it was a chilly day
if these shoes are all they are cracked upto be, then he "only" needs to find ~ 45s to do it, which can come from warmer weather, nearly flat track, little wind & definitely if they allow relay of pacers
it all depends on those shoes
if they are truly 4% energy return better than current then he can run
< 2"00'00
If you were half sincere, I'd happily share it with you. Unfortunately...
actualeli wrote:
Ah, to study epistemology on the old campus again...
What college were you in, LVO?
As I recall reading, they'll have a pace car, and if they'll be able to draft the car, I do wonder how much of an advantage that will give. That advantage, along with being doped to the gills + cheater shoes + time trial effort + readily available nutrition = it'll be really close.
The Dingo^3 wrote:
Do we know if Kipchoge's game plan is "I'm running 2:00 pace for as long as I absolutely can", or if he hits half in 60:00 and knows he's in over his head, will he slow down?
If he tries to run 2:00:00 pace for as long as possible, he's either going to run 2:00:00 or DNF / 2:05.
Agreed, I think Kipchoge will run 2:05 and the other two will DNF.
Can't sleep on Tadese either. Never run a great marathon but the potential is there if they are taking care of his nutrition for him. That may have been his downfall in the past.
I think they'll probably BQ.
It'll happen.
We'll see what happens, but I'm going to go with the safe bet and predict they'll all bonk. Kipchoge won't die THAT hard because he is a BAMF. 2:03:29.
59.30 first half, 60.30 second, probably ideal
Anything below 2:02:57 will be worth the loss of sleep.
Maybe 2:02:39.
I will be in bed before 2.
Doped to the gills? Where are you getting that from? Doesn't it bother you to make slanderous statements with zero proof?
DPL wrote:
As I recall reading, they'll have a pace car, and if they'll be able to draft the car, I do wonder how much of an advantage that will give. That advantage, along with being doped to the gills + cheater shoes + time trial effort + readily available nutrition = it'll be really close.
2:03:45 wrote:
What's your guess?
Between 2:01 and 2:03 but it's going to be a great show. No way the shoes make that much difference. The more people, like that Kellogg guy, who propagate the myth that the shoes are making that much of a difference, the more people will buy them. So I hope they realize they're playing into a Nike marketing ploy.
Current world record is WEAK.
Record should be 1:50-1:55. The fact that it is over 2 is SAD.
I've turned this into the official thread. You can watch the race live right here: