Could a fit Alan Webb break 3000M WR?

it'll take time to dig up accurate splits for him to within 0.2s, but remember that was in '06/'07 & he was a different animal to '04/'05 & may have shifted his training to more speed those years

been a while since i saw those races

shows he wasn't a 1500 threat as neither k2 nor gus were in 1500pb shape those years ( certainly not in their 3'29 shape )

ventolin^3 wrote:

kennster in '04/'05

51.75/1'48.25 ->3'31.05 , 7'19.90 , 12'35.05 , 26'09.48

in comparison to his opposition like z-man, kemboi,komon, kiprop, ebuya & perhaps possibly menjo, these guys are somewhere like

52.50/1'49.75 ->3'33.86 , 7'25.53 , 12'44.43 , 26'28.23

( if you don't believe the above line, ask canova about kemboi in '03 )

they possibly do have a better endurance ratio for 400/800, but kennster does have about 3/4s speed advantage over 400 ( so he does have better 400 ability than the others after number-crunching ) & in the end, that makes all the difference

Couldn't we make a more realistic thread? Like "Could a fit Augustine Choge or Asbel Kiprop break the 2000M WR?" That claim actually MAKES SENSE

The waterboy wrote:Couldn't we make a more realistic thread? Like "Could a fit Augustine Choge or Asbel Kiprop break the 2000M WR?" That claim actually MAKES SENSE

that record may even have less chance of being broken than 7'20

hicham didn't run a well paced race that day & shouda gone at least 1s faster with better pacing

however, 4'44.79 is more than good enough for current guys & obviously needs a 1500 guy to do it - & near wr calibre

gus, if he reached career peak simultaneously over 1500/5k, coud get close

being generous & give him 3'29.0, with various 5k backgrounds

13'00 ->4'46.7 , 7'26.8

12'55 ->4'46.2 , 7'25.1

12'50 ->4'45.7 , 7'23.4

12'45 ->4'45.2 , 7'21.6

12'40 ->4'44.8 , 7'19.9

he'd have to get to 12'40 which still woud have him 0.1s shy of it in a "perfect" race ( but he'd have consolation of being able to break 3k wr off it )

therefore, needs more 1500 speed :

try 3'28.5 :

13'00 ->4'46.2 , 7'26.4

12'55 ->4'45.7 , 7'24.7

12'50 ->4'45.2 , 7'23.0

12'45 ->4'44.7 , 7'21.2

12'45 can get you it in a "perfect race", but do you really see gus or anyone running 3'28.5/12'45 currently ?

realistically, we will have to wait for a 3'26.5 - 3'27.0 guy with decent 5k background

3'27.0/13'00 ->4'44.6 , 7'25.1

3'27.0/12'55 ->4'44.2 , 7'23.4

3'26.5/13'05 ->4'44.6 , 7'26.4

3'26.5/13'00 ->4'44.1 , 7'24.7

I agree that the 2000 record is formidable. It appears as if Morceli and Komen both would have had a chance to run 4:44.79, but only at their absolute best and even then they might just miss it.

morceli's line of fit ( nearest 0.25s for 400/800 which woud still be quite a way out from truer ones down to 0.1s ) is ~

47.75/1'43.25 ->3'26.8 , 4'43.8 , 7'22.7 , 12'53.4

he couda comfortably done it, but problem was he was only trying to break a 4'50wr & to go 4'47 musta looked good after, but hicham who was only 1.3s faster over 1500, went 3s faster, showing morceli really didn't scratch the surface of his potential with 4'47 ( & then said-sief a guy with same 3k time as morceli but 2s slower over 1500, went 1s faster than him )

komen's line is somewhere around ~

50.00/1'46.00 ->3'28.95 , 4'44.83 , 7'20.41 , 12'41.64 , 26'38.29

50.25/1'46.25 ->3'29.00 , 4'44.63 , 7'19.55 , 12'39.08 , 26'30.03

50.50/1'46.50 ->3'29.04 , 4'44.43 , 7'18.70 , 12'36.51 , 26'21.77

he wouda had to run his absolute perfect race to get it

the interesting thing is the morceli/hicham comparison ( only to nearest 0.25s for 400/800, which actually does make big difference from more precise 0.1s )

morceli is possibly ~

47.50/1'43.00 ->3'26.73 , 4'43.94 , 7'23.46 , 12'55.94 , 27'31.89

47.75/1'43.25 ->3'26.77 , 4'43.74 , 7'22.61 , 12'53.37 , 27'23.62

hicham is possibly

47.50/1'42.75 ->3'25.83 , 4'42.49 , 7'20.73 , 12'50.25 , 27'17.37

47.75/1'43.00 ->3'25.88 , 4'42.29 , 7'19.88 , 12'47.68 , 27'09.11

there was possibly no difference in their basic 400 speed but he possibly was 1/4s faster over 800 which made the big difference

just ~1/4s over 800 may have been the only difference between them

ventolin^3 wrote:

rule of thumb is that you add 25 - 30s to 3k flat time to get steeple time, depending on efficiency of technique

therefore a 7'25 ->7'50 - 7'55

ventolin^3 wrote:

rule of thumb is that you add 25 - 30s to 3k flat time to get steeple time, depending on efficiency of technique

therefore a 7'25 ->7'50 - 7'55

well. wrote:

http://www.puma.com/running/athletes/mustafa-mohamed

I think the fact that his 3000 "PR" is INDOORS should tell you something about how often and seriously he's contested the distance outdoors.

Hey Ventolin

Would you mind doing some predictions for current US athletes? It might be exciting to see what some of these guys could run this next year!

How about Webb, Ritz, Rupp, Solinsky, Fernandez, Jager, Hall, etc

Thanks if you have time!

ventolin^3 wrote:

only a complete imbecile brings in their mile times as a sign of any so called "intelligence"

ventolin^3 wrote:

another 6'30 miler who's going to

"tell us what it is"

Does this 25-30 second conversion, while not supported by the IAAF or other tables, supposedly apply to slower runners as well? I hardly know anyone, even those trained for the steeple, who ran it within 30 seconds of their indoor 3k (assuming they had legit attempts at both). I personally ran 8:37 and 9:19 (42s difference, and no I'm not a chick so save it) and felt like I was pretty good with barriers, no way I could have run 9:05ish. Just wondering what your personal 3k/steeple differential is, because there's nothing like first hand experience, is there?

eh ?

why are you offering a indoor 3k time ?

those are usually ~5s slower than outdoors ( or try 101/102 ratio - interpolated from mureika's calculator )

as for your ability over stix, we only have your opinion on your prowess - ~40s is bad differential in anyone's book

look at 1 shining example - rono, a man with appalling stix technique ran 7'32wr/8'05wr in same year - that's 33s differential with appalling technique - anyone with decent technique shoud be <30 at elite level

ventolin^3 wrote:

tell me any races any elite is running this week you retard

Lagat is running Millrose games. What is horsiecalc.co.uk 's prediction for him there?

go ask him his current 400 & 800 ability & you can find out for yourself

ventolin^3 wrote:

go ask him his current 400 & 800 ability & you can find out for yourself

So, you do not know and are not willing to offer a prediction at all.

I cannot find out for myself because I refuse to patronize your horsiecalc until you can prove it is accurate to a reasonable standard.

Are you going to pay to Brojos for all the advertising you do for horsiecalc on here?

hey Ventolin

Do you think you'll be able to speculate what times the top US runners might run next season? Runners like Webb, Ritz, Hall, Fernandez, Solinsky, etc. It will be fun to get our hopes up and get excited for the next season!

And all of you stop arguing. You all look like babies with the name-calling.

no one has run a track race yet, so nothing to go on

webb is my favorite guy, but he's been in such poor form recently, i don't know what to say about his prospects

solinsky is the star now, perhaps there is something to speculate on him ?

trying some prelim figures, lines of fit for him from experience that stand out for him this year ( ones that instinctively "feel right" ) - top 2 i like more :

52.25/1'49.75 ->3'34.8 , 7'29.1 , 12'52.7 , 26'51.0

51.75/1'49.00 ->3'33.8 , 7'28.1 , 12'52.2 , 26'53.1

52.00/1'49.25 ->3'33.8 , 7'27.3 , 12'49.6 , 26'44.8

all i'm suggesting is that he can go possibly a good way < 7'30 & if he gets close to 12'50 he could potentially really slaughter that 26'59pb if his endurance lasts "perfectly" to 10k ( i think he comes close )

ventolin^3 wrote:

eh ?

why are you offering a indoor 3k time ?

those are usually ~5s slower than outdoors ( or try 101/102 ratio - interpolated from mureika's calculator )

as for your ability over stix, we only have your opinion on your prowess - ~40s is bad differential in anyone's book

look at 1 shining example - rono, a man with appalling stix technique ran 7'32wr/8'05wr in same year - that's 33s differential with appalling technique - anyone with decent technique shoud be <30 at elite level

Because, as you should know, 3k outdoors is rarely contested and my outdoor PR was run hungover in a time trial (8:40 something).

There I put up my times - I still haven't heard what your personal 3k/steeple differential is, but I'd be surprised if it was under 30s.

ventolin^3 wrote:

eh ?

why are you offering a indoor 3k time ?

those are usually ~5s slower than outdoors ( or try 101/102 ratio - interpolated from mureika's calculator )

as for your ability over stix, we only have your opinion on your prowess - ~40s is bad differential in anyone's book

look at 1 shining example - rono, a man with appalling stix technique ran 7'32wr/8'05wr in same year - that's 33s differential with appalling technique - anyone with decent technique shoud be <30 at elite level

WTF are you talking about, Eldrick? Rono had excellent technique.