NXN Girls 2024 Predictions

Hi Garrett. We all know it's you.

No texas girl will finish in the top 20 at nxn or footlocker.

From what I remember from that race, the conditions were rough. Wet and muddy. Although I could be mixing it up with the prior year, with Sarah Baxter vs Mary Cain.

she had the 4th fastest time at CIF out of the divisions. Chiara Daly of La Jolla, CA is running Footlocker at nearby Balboa Park instead. I really hate how Footlocker has been so watered down because of NXN and the stupid name changes the past 7 years. They NEVER should have changed the name- it lost prestige. Really wished Sadie E from Ventura and Rylee Blade did Footlocker. The course is a true XC course, unlike this weak, flat NXN course

Baxter and Cain- the 2 biggest busts in HS running history after HS. Amber Trotter, and Brie Oakley and Claudia Lane. Brie explained what happened, and Claudia Lane was done after Junior year- awkward running styles, both of them, same Natalie Cook. Sad. What happened to Sarah Baxter. She completely vanished. Did she leave Oregon and not graduate also?

Mountain Vista has altitude advantage.

I put down Sadie as 10th . She didn't do well at Footlocker 2 years ago, and not very well at NXN last year. She's a better track runner. Has the 1 mile HS record at 4:28, 5 seconds faster than Katelyn Tuohy!

You realize Foot Locker and NXN only have about a 100ft difference and NXN is actually a tad long for a 5km. It's why the CRs are quite similar (16:37 NXN Girls, 16:39 FL Girls / 14:44 NXN Boys, 14:36 FL Boys).

It's pretty damn obvious who I am and it certainly isn't Garrett.

That being said, Texas XC is better than you give it credit for...particularly on the team level.

Remove the 3 highlighted above; those results are from Portland Meadows in 2013.

As mentioned in an earlier post, NXN switched to Glendoveer GC in 2014.

Yes to pre-race weather being nice. Most importantly, the course is firm and dry, as evidenced in yesterday's (Friday's) course run through. So, the nice weather will, indeed, have helped on Saturday.

A week ago, forecast was for rain to start Thursday. Then it was moved ahead to Friday. Then, a couple days ago, moved forward again to early Saturday morning.

Now -- typing this early Saturday morning, weather.com states "rain possibly after 6 am" with accumulation around 0.1".

This little storm front is taking its time moving inland.

So, likely all we'll see at the 10am PT start of the girls race will be a drizzle with very little effect on footing. Ground will have absorbed the water since the rain will be so light. With temps in the mid-40s and only a slight breeze,

Assuming the drizzle is steady, expect conditions to be a little muddy in spots for the boys race at 11:30am PT but still good conditions for racing. Not "gelatinous and quivery" as some Shakespeare-in-training wrote above.

Milers Hedengren & Englehardt shouldn't have any problems. Just need not to do anything stupid like we've seen in the past. Front running tactics should work ok this time as they did with Riggs in 2022.

Have no idea re: boys. So many top runners throughout the season then add the CA boys right at the end. Winner comes from maybe a pool of up to 15.

My WAGs will be Hedengren, Ritzenhein, Ferebee and Gonzalez, Smith, Barrett. But there are probably at least 20 B who could podium, while I think the possibilities on the G side are are closer to 5.

nine ages of overspeculation and irrelevant arguing about past performances by long graduated athletes and bashing the poor California kids and we seem to have settled on the usual suspects in the end.

given the choice of Hedendren vs the Field, if you are putting money on it, which one of those options do you take? and if your answer is Hedengren, does she run away with it and win easily or is it a good finish? Im pulling for the surprise myself. either the emergence of an unlikely new queen, the triumph of an old but overlooked star or a wild competitive finish where multiple athletes are in it until the finish. that being said, in the end, I would still probably put my money on Jane despite how good this field is...

I would put the $ on Hedengren, and if I were her I would stick with whoever wants to lead until at least 2 miles and then see how I feel. I would think she would have a gap before the final 2 rises.

It's not like these ladies are out smoking weed and shoplifting; the female body goes through fairly dramatic changes from youth to teen to adult. Often the adult version is just no longer suited for top level distance running. Believe me, these ladies are more disappointed than we are when things don't work out.

Sarah Baxter - at nxn she had to go against pro Mary Cain in one year, and then pro Alexa Efraimson and future Olympian Elise Cranny the next year. Talk about formidable competitors and legendary races.

Cain by the way was pretty successful (briefly) after high school winning the World U20 Gold at 3000m in US jr record 8:58 and making the world championship final in Moscow. That 3000 is the only Gold ever won by a USA distance runner at U20 worlds. These achievements will actually end up being better than many runners, who continue as pros into their 30s. Cain is now in medical school, so her college choices worked out fine.

Have fun today everyone! Moist conditions, but not deep mud. Ladies first, so course should be ok. Best deep field ever.

Starting to rain already in Portland, so it has not held off as was potentially expected. The fear of the "gelatinous and quivery" remains, although nothing like last year.