One note: I think Tim might run a lot different tomorrow. The sense I'm getting in is his game plan was to run towards the middle/back in the first 2 rounds before reverting to his front running tactics for the final. Why do I think that? He has put little effort into his starts before and has been conservative about moving up unlike Yared or Jakob. When he gets boxed or blocked he's opted to wait thus far instead of putting in a real surge to secure a top-3 position. He got away with it in the semi because he's fit, but he ran probably the most distance in the field and had more stop/start action than anyone. It could really shift the dynamics if we get Tim trying to do the 2022 thing with a much greater possibility that Jakob would either lay the hammer down hard when he goes by or defer a bit. It also means that if Tim is in there tracking Jakob, I feel worse about Kerr (a little bit) and Nuguse (a good bit) because these guys don't have the greatest gear shift. It would help Hocker, who is more similar to Wightman in terms of dealing with micro-moves while maintaining position and the rail.
Another note: Brian Komen has stated his tactics and is following them to a T. He will try to run top 3 or 4, and wait until exactly 300 to go to start winding up and going hard. Don't be surprised if he loses some ground from 450m to go to 300m to go. It's the Nordas except launching later and from further up in the ideally. It remains to be seen if he is strong enough to pull this off, but his close in the semis was really quick (39-mid) and off a fast tempo obviously.
This post was edited 2 minutes after it was posted.
He's correct though. Jakob has the worst 800m PR in the entire field. And being a time-trialler all years round also takes away his racing savvy at slower races where positioning is extremely important. The slower the race is, the less chance there is for Jakob.
But at faster races like 3:27-29, he would be heading into Kerr's territory. So his best bet is to make it a 3:26 race, which is impossible without wavelight and pacers. Though making it a fast would guarantee him a medal, he's not gonna win with the presence of Kerr.
That's why Kerr is the heavy favourite, it's just a simple fact.
delusions on delusions.
Kerr hasn't broken 3:29 yet everyone gives him the credit of "oh he COULD run that based on his mile" or whatever. But yet you base Jakob's speed on an 800m he ran years ago? lol, just stupid.
Kerr beat Jacob once when he sick and once in his first race back from injury - both by insanely small margins. Kerr could win -sure, I wouldn't be shocked if Jakob loses a third year in a row - but to detract from the reigning Olympic champions skillset like this while giving Kerr so much unwarranted credit is insane.
The simple fact is Jakob is faster - pure and simple. He has been faster for like 85% of all races against Kerr and I think tomorrow he will be faster again. Kerr can't win with pacemakers in a time trial - his only hope is to win tomorrow with Jakob pacing him. For eff sake, he got outkicked by Nuguse of all people last time he tried to do what Jakob does. You people have no credibility.
Btw which would you rather have? Gold in the WC and Olympics, or an Olympic gold and a bunch of DL wins?
One note: I think Tim might run a lot different tomorrow. The sense I'm getting in is his game plan was to run towards the middle/back in the first 2 rounds before reverting to his front running tactics for the final. Why do I think that? He has put little effort into his starts before and has been conservative about moving up unlike Yared or Jakob. When he gets boxed or blocked he's opted to wait thus far instead of putting in a real surge to secure a top-3 position. He got away with it in the semi because he's fit, but he ran probably the most distance in the field and had more stop/start action than anyone. It could really shift the dynamics if we get Tim trying to do the 2022 thing with a much greater possibility that Jakob would either lay the hammer down hard when he goes by or defer a bit. It also means that if Tim is in there tracking Jakob, I feel worse about Kerr (a little bit) and Nuguse (a good bit) because these guys don't have the greatest gear shift. It would help Hocker, who is more similar to Wightman in terms of dealing with micro-moves while maintaining position and the rail.
Good insights but this depends on how fast it's gonna be in the end. I think Hocker is only a factor above 3:29. Faster than that and he's mostly just hanging in there.
Assuming no falls here is my prediction in a 3:27 race:
1. Jakob
2. Kerr
---
3. Hocker
4. Tim
5. Yared
6. Komen
---
7. Laros
8. Gourley
9. Nordas
10. Kessler
---
11. Nilessen
12. Arese
3/4/5/6 and 7/8/9/10 feel like tossups. I could see them going in pretty much any order, although I more certain about 3/4/5/6.
Laros is a real dark horse for me - I feel like he hasn't really shown his hand yet this season and a finish in the top 5 feels like a real possibility. I see him off the medal stand this year, but considering how he ran in the finals last year you never know.
Overall, Hocker feels like he has the slight edge for bronze right now but only slightly. I think Yared, Komen, and Tim could all be right there.
Excited to see what Kessler can do. I think he's always done very well in fast races, much better than in tactical races but an Olympic final is another story.
Prediction: Someone, probably Yared takes a hard first lap. Jakob takes the second lap and keeps it rolling from there. Kerr stays on Jakob's shoulder and makes a move coming off the curve into the home straight but comes up short.
Well done! very detailed prediction up to 12th place, appreciate it.
Good insights but this depends on how fast it's gonna be in the end. I think Hocker is only a factor above 3:29. Faster than that and he's mostly just hanging in there.
I think it is fair to be skeptical of Hocker at those speeds. But it's also fair to be skeptical that Jakob will truly make it faster than that. Why do I say that? He would have to fight for the lead at the beginning or hope someone else who makes it fast done. Yes, it could be Tim. Thus far, the guys who explode off the line are Hocker, Komen, Kessler and Gourley. All of them will jog at 60+ tempo that first turn. So if you want a sub-3:29, you will have to get out or get to the lead by 250m in and drop the hammer. Is anyone willing to do that? In 2019, Tim did but it's been a while and there's no Kipsang (explosive starter) who pushes the pace to do it. Kipsang's absence has thrown a wrench in the first lap.
He's correct though. Jakob has the worst 800m PR in the entire field. And being a time-trialler all years round also takes away his racing savvy at slower races where positioning is extremely important. The slower the race is, the less chance there is for Jakob.
But at faster races like 3:27-29, he would be heading into Kerr's territory. So his best bet is to make it a 3:26 race, which is impossible without wavelight and pacers. Though making it a fast would guarantee him a medal, he's not gonna win with the presence of Kerr.
That's why Kerr is the heavy favourite, it's just a simple fact.
Yeah they'll see the light tomorrow. It's been explained enough times. Jakob is the fastest 1500 runner in world because of his massive aerobic gear which he deploys more efficiently across 4 laps. He does not have insane raw speed and he is not a savvy tactician. In the semi for example, that was an unnecessarily abrupt burst of speed to pass the field. He could have achieved the same result with a progressively faster pace increase. As the above poster points out, his best bet tomorrow is to go 3:26 pace FROM THE GUN and peel off the whole field hoping to be the last man hanging on. But he will wait to see if anyone else takes it (they wont) and then spend some energy getting to the front quickly and then has to concentrate a sustained sub WR effort over 3 laps which is not doable and zaps his own tank in the end.
What speed were the field running at? 60 sec lap?
Passing the field at that pace took less out of Jakob than sprinting at the start to secure the lead took out of Kerr (when Jakob just jogged), so not sure that is the best example to highlight Kerr's supposedly supreme racing IQ.
Good insights but this depends on how fast it's gonna be in the end. I think Hocker is only a factor above 3:29. Faster than that and he's mostly just hanging in there.
I think it is fair to be skeptical of Hocker at those speeds. But it's also fair to be skeptical that Jakob will truly make it faster than that. Why do I say that? He would have to fight for the lead at the beginning or hope someone else who makes it fast done. Yes, it could be Tim. Thus far, the guys who explode off the line are Hocker, Komen, Kessler and Gourley. All of them will jog at 60+ tempo that first turn. So if you want a sub-3:29, you will have to get out or get to the lead by 250m in and drop the hammer. Is anyone willing to do that? In 2019, Tim did but it's been a while and there's no Kipsang (explosive starter) who pushes the pace to do it. Kipsang's absence has thrown a wrench in the first lap.
It's exactly what I think Jakob is going to do and why I think Kerr will win. He's going to run sub 3:29 in a very hard way - with a modest first 300-400 as he waits for anyone else to pace, and then burst to WR pace for the rest of the race. He's going to be zapped meanwhile Kerr runs it more smoothly from the start.
Here are my predictions & why Jingy will win the men's 1500m: 1. Jakob 2. Hocker 3. Kerr Jakob will run a very fast race. He'll run 3:26:xx. Can Kerr run 3:26 with a pacer? Maybe. But there will no pop in those legs. Jakob will drag the explosive power out of Kerr & put him is a place he has never been before. Nuguse will follow them like a little puppy to the slaughter. Timothy might hang on for awhile but he'll pop around 200-150m to go, while Yared withers at 100m to go. Kerr holds form to 50m to go then he fades. No one has a choice; they must honor Jakob's strength. Timothy, Komen, Yared & Josh already have shown their cards & what they'll do. No way Jakob lets the race turn into another Pre. The real wildcard is Hocker. If he sits back a little & works the final 300m judiciously, he can can expect some of that homestretch magic fairy dust to materialize & he can run down Cheruiyot, Nuguse & Kerr for the silver in very close to Lagat's AR.
Here are my predictions & why Jingy will win the men's 1500m: 1. Jakob 2. Hocker 3. Kerr Jakob will run a very fast race. He'll run 3:26:xx. Can Kerr run 3:26 with a pacer? Maybe. But there will no pop in those legs. Jakob will drag the explosive power out of Kerr & put him is a place he has never been before. Nuguse will follow them like a little puppy to the slaughter. Timothy might hang on for awhile but he'll pop around 200-150m to go, while Yared withers at 100m to go. Kerr holds form to 50m to go then he fades. No one has a choice; they must honor Jakob's strength. Timothy, Komen, Yared & Josh already have shown their cards & what they'll do. No way Jakob lets the race turn into another Pre. The real wildcard is Hocker. If he sits back a little & works the final 300m judiciously, he can can expect some of that homestretch magic fairy dust to materialize & he can run down Cheruiyot, Nuguse & Kerr for the silver in very close to Lagat's AR.
I, too, think Jakob's strategy is to take it quick and burn them out. It just seems obvious that that is his best route to gold. While yes he had rabbits, I think he advantageously used Monaco to physically (and mentally) practice the pace, to get that pace in his legs, refresh his muscle memory, over the full 1500m - from gun to finish line. I also think Kerr (and others) prepared for this scenario as the most likely scenario... It's gonna be so so good!!
Here are my predictions & why Jingy will win the men's 1500m: 1. Jakob 2. Hocker 3. Kerr Jakob will run a very fast race. He'll run 3:26:xx. Can Kerr run 3:26 with a pacer? Maybe. But there will no pop in those legs. Jakob will drag the explosive power out of Kerr & put him is a place he has never been before. Nuguse will follow them like a little puppy to the slaughter. Timothy might hang on for awhile but he'll pop around 200-150m to go, while Yared withers at 100m to go. Kerr holds form to 50m to go then he fades. No one has a choice; they must honor Jakob's strength. Timothy, Komen, Yared & Josh already have shown their cards & what they'll do. No way Jakob lets the race turn into another Pre. The real wildcard is Hocker. If he sits back a little & works the final 300m judiciously, he can can expect some of that homestretch magic fairy dust to materialize & he can run down Cheruiyot, Nuguse & Kerr for the silver in very close to Lagat's AR.
I, too, think Jakob's strategy is to take it quick and burn them out. It just seems obvious that that is his best route to gold. While yes he had rabbits, I think he advantageously used Monaco to physically (and mentally) practice the pace, to get that pace in his legs, refresh his muscle memory, over the full 1500m - from gun to finish line. I also think Kerr (and others) prepared for this scenario as the most likely scenario... It's gonna be so so good!!
Not sure how many of you sleep at night?
Talk about beating a dead horse fifty ways to Sunday?
wow
Four paragraph or half a page analysis?
Why? To say you were right? Some of you have outlined so many scenarios one of them will surely be right!
I, too, think Jakob's strategy is to take it quick and burn them out. It just seems obvious that that is his best route to gold. While yes he had rabbits, I think he advantageously used Monaco to physically (and mentally) practice the pace, to get that pace in his legs, refresh his muscle memory, over the full 1500m - from gun to finish line. I also think Kerr (and others) prepared for this scenario as the most likely scenario... It's gonna be so so good!!
Not sure how many of you sleep at night?
Talk about beating a dead horse fifty ways to Sunday?
wow
Four paragraph or half a page analysis?
Why? To say you were right? Some of you have outlined so many scenarios one of them will surely be right!
Assuming no falls here is my prediction in a 3:27 race:
1. Jakob
2. Kerr
---
3. Hocker
4. Tim
5. Yared
6. Komen
---
7. Laros
8. Gourley
9. Nordas
10. Kessler
---
11. Nilessen
12. Arese
3/4/5/6 and 7/8/9/10 feel like tossups. I could see them going in pretty much any order, although I more certain about 3/4/5/6.
Laros is a real dark horse for me - I feel like he hasn't really shown his hand yet this season and a finish in the top 5 feels like a real possibility. I see him off the medal stand this year, but considering how he ran in the finals last year you never know.
Overall, Hocker feels like he has the slight edge for bronze right now but only slightly. I think Yared, Komen, and Tim could all be right there.
Excited to see what Kessler can do. I think he's always done very well in fast races, much better than in tactical races but an Olympic final is another story.
Prediction: Someone, probably Yared takes a hard first lap. Jakob takes the second lap and keeps it rolling from there. Kerr stays on Jakob's shoulder and makes a move coming off the curve into the home straight but comes up short.
Remember, sub 3:25 pace for the last 1100m for Nillessen in the semi. He will surprise you.
3:25 pace for last 1100m, with a 39.0 last 300m and the entire bend on outside of lane 1 and into lane 2, which really means a 38.6. This actually means a 3:24 (low) 1500m pace for the last 1100m (assuming the 38.6). In addition, closing in 38.6 is not an optimal way of running a fast 1100m (as 38.6 is 2:12.0 pace for 1000m). His long stride is deceptive. He makes this look “slow”.
I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.
1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.
2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.
3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.
4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.
I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.
I will start with the runners who in my opinion have almost zero chances to medal:
Nillesen, Arese, Gourley, Laros, Nordaas and (sorry THOUGHTSLEADER) Komen and Tim.
They had to go all in in the semifinals and especially the first mentioned have PBs far away from the top runners.
Laros time will possibly come but for now he isn´t fast enough.
Nordaas only just managed to qualify and his performances this season don´t indicate that he will be able to hang on to the top guys.
Komen and Tim didn´t look as they had fully recovered from the heat. Komen qualified well but he really had to work just to be close to Jakob and Kerr who were only cruising. And Tim did not have the strenght to hang on to Nuguse struggling all the way just to qualify.
So left as real medal contenders are the 3 Americans, Kerr and Jakob.
There have been a lot of discussion on this and other threads about Kerr´s PB at 3:29. I think it is quite clear that he in the Bowerman Mile 2024 was in sub 3:28 shape and if he has improved further - what would be normal - he could be in low 3:27 shape tomorrow (in a Monaco like paced race under good conditions provided Kerr doesn´t have to take over after the pacemakers drop out; if Kerr HAS to front run the last 500m he could possibly run low 3:28)
Jakob ran 3:26.73 in DL Monaco less than a month ago. I think he might have improved further so he could be in low 3:26 shape. So perhaps 2 second faster than Kerr in a paced DL race under equal conditions.
Nuguse looked strong in his semifinal and might be back in his Bowerman Mile 2023 shape: around mid 3:27. Mid 3:28 if he should front run after the pacemakers drop out.
Both Hocker and Kessler looked strong but it is uncertain how fast they can go in a really fast final. 3.28?
--------------
I agree with the posters on this thread who argue that Nuguse could benefit from taking it out hard, for example with a 56 first lap or perhaps even a 84 first 600m. In that way he could secure to have Jakob´s back if the latter as expected take over to finish the race fast. He would then have the position he had in the Bowerman Mile 2023 and a chance both to outsprint Jakob in the finish and hold off Kerr in a ideal scenario. Perhaps Nuguse will even get help from Hocker and Kessler to hold off Josh if these 2 hang on to him (Nuguse) as they hang on to the leaders in their respective semifinals (and as they hang on to Nuguse in the US trial final).
If no one takes it out fast Jakob has to decide if he wants to front run most of the race with Kerr and/ or Nuguse on his shoulder or if he should wait some laps before he goes to the front. I would chose the last solution since frontrunning most of the race will annilate the difference between Jakob´s and Kerr´s and Nuguse´s potential PBs.
I think it is difficult to say who will win when the top guys look to be at the peak of their careers (at least so far) and when the potential of the top 3 seems to be quite close, especially when the supposed fastest guy is expected to front run most of the race.
-----------------
By the way: Kerr´ closest supporters (Trollminator, Sledge-Hammer and more) are certain that Kerr is the better championship racer, despite being beaten by Jakob in 4 out of 5 Worlds or Olympics finals. And despite Jakob winning numerous Euros finals indoor and outdoor starting winning double 1500m and 5000m gold at the age of 17.
And: Almost everyone here consider Kerr the superior finisher despite Jakob easily outsprinting Kerr twice last year (even though Kerr got pace from start to finish) whereas Kerr only has beaten Jakob narrowly twice in the same period.
I disagree with the Nuguse leading take. The *only* reason he should lead at all is sometimes he looks uncomfortable in packs.
But I believe Nuguse leading for 400-600m does not help him at all.
He already knows Jakob is going to try to solo 3:27. If he believe he’s a at least a 3:28 runner, he should hop on the train and hope Jakob falters after leading 1400m. Jakob is a lot less likely to falter if takes the lead at 600m. Setting Jakob up for a time trial is a loser’s mentality.
There is no one in the race that who should lead even 1 step of the race unless it’s to slow the pace down.
Assuming no falls here is my prediction in a 3:27 race:
1. Jakob
2. Kerr
---
3. Hocker
4. Tim
5. Yared
6. Komen
---
7. Laros
8. Gourley
9. Nordas
10. Kessler
---
11. Nilessen
12. Arese
3/4/5/6 and 7/8/9/10 feel like tossups. I could see them going in pretty much any order, although I more certain about 3/4/5/6.
Laros is a real dark horse for me - I feel like he hasn't really shown his hand yet this season and a finish in the top 5 feels like a real possibility. I see him off the medal stand this year, but considering how he ran in the finals last year you never know.
Overall, Hocker feels like he has the slight edge for bronze right now but only slightly. I think Yared, Komen, and Tim could all be right there.
Excited to see what Kessler can do. I think he's always done very well in fast races, much better than in tactical races but an Olympic final is another story.
Prediction: Someone, probably Yared takes a hard first lap. Jakob takes the second lap and keeps it rolling from there. Kerr stays on Jakob's shoulder and makes a move coming off the curve into the home straight but comes up short.
Remember, sub 3:25 pace for the last 1100m for Nillessen in the semi. He will surprise you.
I think anyone in the final could surprise me but you still have 400 more meters to run after 1100
Yeah they'll see the light tomorrow. It's been explained enough times. Jakob is the fastest 1500 runner in world because of his massive aerobic gear which he deploys more efficiently across 4 laps. He does not have insane raw speed and he is not a savvy tactician. In the semi for example, that was an unnecessarily abrupt burst of speed to pass the field. He could have achieved the same result with a progressively faster pace increase. As the above poster points out, his best bet tomorrow is to go 3:26 pace FROM THE GUN and peel off the whole field hoping to be the last man hanging on. But he will wait to see if anyone else takes it (they wont) and then spend some energy getting to the front quickly and then has to concentrate a sustained sub WR effort over 3 laps which is not doable and zaps his own tank in the end.
What speed were the field running at? 60 sec lap?
Passing the field at that pace took less out of Jakob than sprinting at the start to secure the lead took out of Kerr (when Jakob just jogged), so not sure that is the best example to highlight Kerr's supposedly supreme racing IQ.
Uhm, the first 6 - 8 seconds off the line uses the alactic energy system which utilizes phosphagen, phosphocreatine and ATP, almost exclusive of any oxygen (aerobic). It's literally the "fight or flight" system in the human body and it's only there for a few seconds. Use or lose it. Jakob doesn't need it but it's incorrect to say that the others are burning matches by getting off the line quicker. They're not....as long as they don't sprint for more than 50 meters.
I know Jakob rarely trains at all-out pace and doesn't really do simulated races. But I wonder if he would've tried a solo time trial to see what he's capable of when he has to lead the whole way. You'd think it would help him strategize when he needs to go out in front and how hard he can push doing that.
Passing the field at that pace took less out of Jakob than sprinting at the start to secure the lead took out of Kerr (when Jakob just jogged), so not sure that is the best example to highlight Kerr's supposedly supreme racing IQ.
Uhm, the first 6 - 8 seconds off the line uses the alactic energy system which utilizes phosphagen, phosphocreatine and ATP, almost exclusive of any oxygen (aerobic). It's literally the "fight or flight" system in the human body and it's only there for a few seconds. Use or lose it. Jakob doesn't need it but it's incorrect to say that the others are burning matches by getting off the line quicker. They're not....as long as they don't sprint for more than 50 meters.
It's exactly what I think Jakob is going to do and why I think Kerr will win. He's going to run sub 3:29 in a very hard way - with a modest first 300-400 as he waits for anyone else to pace, and then burst to WR pace for the rest of the race. He's going to be zapped meanwhile Kerr runs it more smoothly from the start.
I mean that's one thing, but I find it hard to believe if that first 400 is over 59, he gets there. He goes 55.5/54.5/39.5 and I guess that just does it. But that first 400 can't lag too much and he has to be far more aggressive. We shall see, I think it might end up being slower than people think due to a cagey first lap.
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