The 5000m final at worlds will be won in sub 12:40

I don’t necessarily agree with the other guy. But what you fail to understand is that performance isn’t linear.

Rudisha runs a 45s 400m, Bolt runs a 45s 400m, does that mean Bolt can run a 1:40 800m ?

Following your exemple :

Kenenisa Bekele runs a 3:32 1500m, Hobbs Kessler runs a 3:32 1500m. Does that mean Hobbs Kessler can run a 7:25 3000m ?

The next exemple might be the best for you :

Haile Gebrselassie runs a 3:31 1500m and a 7:25 3000m, Mohamed Katir runs a 3:28 1500m and a 7:24 3000m. Does that mean Mohamed Katir runs faster than Haile’s 12:39 now ?

I can see where you are coming from but like others you are either comparing runners who have majorly focused on different events in their career (meaning they never truly raced enough of a certain distance) or you are under appreciating jakobs 2 mile. You can do all these comparisons between other runners that are unrelated to who we are talking about but at the end of the day nobody has run a time as fast as his 2 mile or 3k equivalent. At the very least he has to go under 12:40 and it’s not even a question.

It makes sense in the real world. Maybe consider trying to see what it is like.

If anything, it’s not enough information to go on. Jakob has run a 3k equivalent time that nobody has ever run before. We’ll see how he does but he is most definitely going under 12:40

Forget about Jakob. Heed the lesson. So if you have a 1:46, 3:30 and 7:32 runner and a 1:49, 3:35 and 7:32 runner, and those performances are a true reflection of their abilities, the latter runner will run a faster 5000m in a time trial. The former runner will probably be more dangerous in a global championship if it is not too fast.

Here’s my take:

Firstly: Sub 12.40 in a championship would be unprecedented. But what the heck -sub 3.29 in Tokyo was the same..

The hot weather might be an obstacle. But Cheptegei ran his WR under that kind of conditions -less wind and lower dew points than in Eugene might give the opportunity. And I agree in the chances for someone making the race an honest one…

People are saying a lot of Jakob’s chances in this race, and his overall 5000m capacity, but I don’t agree in the certainty most posters propose here (Well, I share the majority view of him being the favourite )… So here are some alternatives that all (in my opinion) might come true -I will of course point on which I prefer, although no way to know for sure:

1. Jakob’s sweet spot being more on the 1500m / 3000m side than 5000m. His current sharpening of his form may also favourite his shorter events. He has run very good 5000meters over the years, but his monster run in the 2 miles may say something of a greatest potential in exactly that distance….
Jakob ran a 12.48 two years ago. -He won the race, so maybe 12.45 would be a fair estimate for an all out time trail…. And the year after he won Wch in the same distance -Henrik Ingebrigtsen proposed a 12.40 capacity at the time (based on year best marks of the athletes beaten), but let’s give him 12.40-45….
Some experts say that an athlete cannot excel in the 1500 and the 5000m at the same time (same season) -meaning progress in the 1500m ruins the same in the 5000m. -If so; let’s give him a 12.44 capacity… And because he progresses also in the two miles: Lets shave off a couple of seconds: 12.42!

2. The sweet spot is equally 1500m / 3k / 5k… Result: His all out capacity is 12,34 / 35….

3. 5000m is Jakob’s current best event. Arguments here are: No weaknesses in this event the last years compared to other distances (last years). And because of Jakob’s lack of 800m speed 5000m should be his best event… And also because the training is very threshold / lot of miles based… Estimate: sub 12.34…

Well, we don’t know before we know (haven’t seen an all out 5000m from Jakob in 4 years)…

But my gut feeling is on alternative 3. -His two miles pr, the training, his Wch win and Florence race, and him clearly being more strength based than El Guerrouj and Lagat (f.ex his easy winning in a nearly 10 km long hilly trail -xc European) all suggest 5000m as current sweet spot…

We’ve got an exciting Wch 5000m ahead of us..! Hope it brings the only thing that lacked in Eugene -a fast time…

Jakob has a lot of stamina but miss speed. There are many guys Who conjugates stamina and speed this year in the 5.000m and it seems impossible doubling those two events this year as well as i don't see anyone doubling 10.000m-5000m. Anyway i will be there at the stadium and i hope to see an exciting race. I also expect a Cheptegei on fire.

All I said was Jakob beat a field that was weakened last year. Unless you really think Jacob Krop is the best East African runner. He just ran his heart out last race and could not hang the last 400. I like him and think he is a great talent/competitor but I don't think his ceiling is there with Kejelcha/Aregawi/Cheptegei/Kiplimo. He is more in the Gebrhiwet range.

-Jakob is remarkably consistent, I am not arguing that. You do have to realize it require extraordinary scenarios/bad races/buildups for Oscar Chelimo to be the second best African runner. No offense, he's not that good a runner.

-Kiplimo wasn't entered in the 5,000 before the meet last year due to injury — he had an abbreviated buildup and with Commonwealth Games, they waited until then to double him. He also ran bronze in the 10, so I wouldn't call that lackluster at all.

-Aregawi was scratched due to a lackluster race, but the move backfired with Haile Bekele not making the final (with the old time Q rules), so the final had non-factors (Sam Parsons) over a guy who couldn't contend and is better this year. Ethiopia's team is better this year barring injuries as you've added in Gebrhiwet too. With the elimination of time qualifiers, we are more likely to have the best 16 in the final this year.

-We'll see on the 3,000-5,000 thing, it's weird you take it so personally though. Are you even sure they're including the 3,000 when they say that (instead of just contrasting to 1500) as it's not a championship distance?

-In the 1500, it's not an excuse Cheruiyot has been hurt the last few years and Kipsang regularly runs with poor tactics. Jakob's tactics are typically a *strength,* it's weird to not act like tactics matter when Jakob himself says this. I've never said Kipsang was on his level the last couple years. He is on a medal-winning level, but he has to run smart.

-Jakob IS at a marginally higher level I agree in terms of the time trial maximum. I think Tim with good pacing was in 3:27-mid shape in the past, but without wavelight/good pacing they left time on the table. We'll see how Jakob executes in a championship frontrunning a la Tim in 2019. It's a tougher field...Tim was going against guys in 3:30-low shape as opposed to the group at 3:29-low right now. So the degree of difficult is up this year, but as you say Jakob IS better.

T. Cheruiyot will not come back, put this in your head.

I have seen how he was striding at London DL.

If he get a bronze medal it will a great exploit

Contrary to some want to spread in this thread, Ethiopian will very likely act in team and push for a highly paced 5000m.

He has to go back to what got him to the top. That is running aggressively and from the front/near it in event finals. Running in the pack is fine in Kenya and he obviously will want to be comfortable with it at times in preliminary rounds. But in the final and these loaded Diamond Leagues, trying to string together tactical masterpieces is not his game.

I don´t think we disagree very much and I certainly not take anything personally.

I agree that the field in Eugene were weak because many of the top runners: Cheptegei, Barega, Kejelcha, Kipkorir Kimeli were not at their best. But that is part of their game: They aren´t very consistent.

I hope everyone bring their very best to Budapest. It could be the race of the century.

I think Krop was one of the very best 5000m runners LAST YEAR. I like him too so I hope he will come back to the top group. I also agree that Chelimo is far from a top gun. He benefitted from hanging on in the past laps and then being able to sprint when the big guys had spent their energy by trying to catch up with the front.

3000m/ 5000m: I think it was a bit more than 2 years ago Jakob stated that his best event at the moment was the 5000m and in the long term the HM. It was after his 7:27 in the 3000m so I think has to be understood as stated.

I agree that Tim probably would have been at least sub 3:28 in 2019 if he really had gone after it. But I don´t think he has that possibility anymore. And as stated before : He ran faster in Tokyo than in Doha 2019 so he didn´t do badly; the competition had just improved much more. He hasn´t been more injured in the last years than he has been racing most of the important races; he is just slightly over the top. I also like Tim and Kipsang. It would be nice if Kipsang takes his Silesia shape with him to Budapest.

I don´t think Jakob will go out as Tim did in Doha. It is against his nature and ability to do that. He prefers to start conservatively and then finish strongly.

I think he will do the long run for home starting 800m or more out and of course he has to be on the very top of his game to hold off such a talented field. I think Nuguse and Kerr (if he is in top shape) are the most dangerous challengers.

This race could also be one of the greatest for a long time with so many runners under 3:30 (and several of them around 3:29 flat).

Understood! I think the Kenyans are really trying (and they've said this) to be at their best at Worlds and not run too fast too early. Only Krop/Mburu really had that for last year. Kipkorir Kimeli, Kandie, Simiyu and Krop all have said things to this effect — that last year they had done too much in the buildup.

The interesting thing is the Ethiopians didn't have this ability except for Kejelcha with the risk he took (shut down DL early, skipped 10K) and Gebrhiwet (started season so late, he is probably relatively fresh). Haile Bekele we should probably be concerned about his level of racing. Aregawi? The encouraging thing is he has been on fire, but he is one of the most erratic I'd say especially if you haven't seen him in a few weeks.

Fair enough on Jakob 3k/5K — I guess we'll see. 7:54 is an amazing mark, I think he'd need 12:32 or something to really make it definitive.

I'd disagree a bit on Tokyo vs. Doha for Tim. The fact that he wasn't confident enough to just frontrun the whole way was concerning to me. He clearly couldn't lift the pace the last 100. Letting it start at 56.1 where Jakob and everyone else is very comfortable was just a sign that he had slipped a bit. Tim says he's fully healthy and there is some evidence as he is running 800s, performing better in Kenya and sprinting at the end (in many of these races) better than he did last year until maybe the Commonwealth Games. He's also run faster like in Oslo. But if he really wants to be his old self, I'd like to see some more pop early in the races.

And yes, very excited for the potential fireworks at 1500/5000. I agree Jakob will run 55-mid maybe 56. I wonder from there who will be on him and if they are patient/try to fly by. If I were orchestrating Team Kenya and they get 3 in — I would direct Reynold Cheruiyot who has good shifting abilities to surge by Jakob in between 400 and 900. Slow it to 56-57 tempo and make him go by you. But we'll see if they try anything like that.

You always avoid speaking of the one others call "Jakob Lite", little masmoum...

Funny with the time projections for Jakob I. here. We all have no idea before he actually tries - with dedicated rabbits - to do it. My projection for the best setup for him: He could do a 62 - 62 two first rounds, then 60s the next 8 rounds, and the last 2,5 rounds 58 -58 - 27. That gives us 12.27. Yes, he is that good.
And no, the time will not be that good in WC final. But he will win.

Yes we agree EXCEPT I believe 12:27 is way too conservative. I think Jakob could do 12:07 on the right day. But probably not in Budapest.

Bump

13:11

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