Way Too Early Predictions for the 2022 WOMENS NCAA D1 XC Championships

That's pretty hard to believe that they found 50 other runners with better credentials... I mean yeah she hasn't done the best during cross country but still I mean running like that in the spring is a good sign.

Any other good podcasts besides stride? Haven't seen much else about the cross country season?

I don't know of others. Maybe TnF News will do a formchart. Here is what the Stride Report said.

"Both Shaw and Quarzo are listed in the "Just Missed" section of our preseason individual rankings. And honestly, if someone argued hard enough, we could have ranked both of these women in our top-50.

The only cautious aspect that I have with this lineup is that there are a good number of women who aren't proven cross country All-Americans or varsity scorers...yet.
Starliper, Seymour, Shaw, Quarzo and LaTour still have to prove themselves (more than they already have) if NC State is going to win the national title as comfortably we think they will.
Although that argument probably applies to Seymour the least.
But if the only critique that I can offer about this group is that, "I haven't seen all of these sub-15:40 runners race at their best on the grass yet," then NC State should be more than ok for this fall season."

Wood has Shaw ranked higher than a number of (imho) more proven XC runners such as Covert, McCabe, Forbes, Mazza-Downie, Heckel just to name a few.....

Jenna only slightly fell back through 2 miles (still in 4th). The last 100 m, she was limping badly favoring her right knee. Injury? She fell at the finish and had to be helped off. Any news on the injury?

looking at the rankings, I would say that Chmiel is still being underrated. 6th last year...right behind Roe, and yet everyone expects she will either be the same or place worse.

She gets very little respect.

This is no sign at all for Shaw. The outdoor season before this one Shaw ran a 15:40 5k and could not make NC State’s top seven in the fall. Expect the same. Consistency is the name of the game and that is not her MO. Shaw will not be in NC State’s top 7 unless there is injuries that put her there by default. All these runners will be ahead of her if healthy: Tuohy, Starliper, Chmiel, Bush, Nevada Moreno, Seymour, Mariah Howlett, Gionna Quarzo. If healthy they will be ahead of her. FloTrack has lost their minds if they think Shaw will be their 3rd runner!

In literally every other sport we would know exactly what the injury/issue is.

Only in running are athletes extremely secretive of their injuries.

I don’t think she gets very little respect….. I just think she does not get enough respect. She is a work horse, but she is not 100% healthy or close to her fitness from last year due to injury. Hopefully for the Pack she is back to herself by seasons end. I don’t know why Everyone keeps questioning that she had a serious injury when she missed a whole season?

Henes is smart and I would bet that she does not race Chmiel this Friday since she is getting back into shape. If she was fit and 100% healthy she would race. Anyone want to make a wager on whether she is in the lineup this Friday?

Second wager: Tuohy and Starliper go 1 and 2, and there will be a clear gap between those two and the rest of the team. Bush will be 3

lLast and tougher prediction for this Friday: Nevada Moreno 4. 5th up for grabs between Quarzo, Mariah, and Shaw. But this will be the top 7 finishers this Friday.

Any takers on a different top 7 this Friday????

very very true!

Yeah I guess we'll get a better idea later in the week...

Tuohy

chmiel

Mercy

Mccabe

Roe

Valby

Larkin

Starliper... My top 8

I think you forgot about Seymour. Assuming for the sake of argument that Chmiel does not race, I agree that Tuohy and Starliper will be 1 and 2. After that, I agree that Bush is 3rd. Then probably Seymour 4th. I have no inside information on how the practices have looked so far over the past couple weeks, but just based on last year's results and expectations for newcomers, I would say that the 5-7 spots will be between Brooke Rauber, Heather Holt, Shaw, Moreno, Quarzo, Latour, and Mariah Howlett. Interestingly, LaTour finished 4th on the team in this Adidas challenge (a 5k race) last year, in a time of 16:44. But LaTour had bad results in 6k races, and didn't make their top 7 by the end of year. Also, I haven't seen Heather Holt (last year's #7) in any pictures from the practices this season over the past few weeks. So I don't know what's up with her and if she will race this Friday.

I also don't have a whole lot of confidence in Shaw being able to be that 6th or 7th runner. For whatever reason, she just seems to be a much better track runner than on the grass in cross country. But maybe she can finally change that this season, who knows.

What is your reason for being so high on Moreno? She's a 5th year senior, and didn't make the top 7 last year, and was seemingly healthy all year She does have a 6k PR of 20:23...so maybe she can make that next step. Seems consistency is her problem.

I think it's a little weird that hardly anyone is talking about Brooke Rauber, who was top 10 at NXN for 3 years of high school. She ran a 17:12 5k in this Adidas Challenge last year when she redshirted. I think she makes a big jump this year, and is either their 6th or 7th runner.

Correction...actually Holt was their 6th runner last year. Clairemont was the 7th.

My only 2 cents is if you recall this was run last year as a 2 mile tempo with the real race being the last mile - and Tuohy beat Chmiel, the only time that happened all XC season. Tuohy, Bush, Starliper the top 3, no idea of order after that.

I hope Shaw has the XC season her best track times would suggest.

oh I wanted to add, Duke is supposed to run and it will interesting to see how Dalia Frias does in her first college race (if she runs).

It is difficult to track runners. When I saw Jenna limping the last 100m, favoring her right leg, with several of her teammates cruising by her, then she collapsed at the line and had to be carried off, I want to know...is her season over? slight hyperextension and will return in 2 weeks? No way to find out.

Moreno is both a gut feeling and hope as an NC state fan. Moreno is one of the most talented runners on the team but as you noted has been plagued by injury and inconsistency. Not really knowing about Chmiel’s status at season’s end, I think the pack needs the talent that Moreno displayed in HS to come forth to win the title again. She was healthy all track season (and was solid), and apparently was actually healthy and trained all summer, so I have high hopes for her.

I believe Brooke is still a year away from being a factor for NC State. if it were any other team she would be a factor.

It reminds me of what happened to Cooper Teare.

Teare was fine a couple days later with no injuries.

She trained at home all summer by herself, traveling to Provo just days before school started.

hard to read too much into early season results, but so far these names have looked solid in their debut:

BIG TEN PREVIEW:

Addie Engel 1st 20:54

Ericka Vanderlende 2nd 20:54

Kayla Windemuller 3rd 20:55

Wonder if Vanderlende can recapture her freshman year magic that led her to finish top 25 at NCAAs, Windemuller contunuing her success from her 9:47 steeple outdoors

Katelynne Hart 20 ish seconds back, not bad.

PSU Spiked Shoe

Savannah Roark wins in 20:58 (I believe the old teammate of Taylor Ewert) could assume the #1 void left by Amanda Vestri's absence

Taylor Ewert wins debut in 3k (10:38) after nearly a year off, must feel relieved.

Kristen Garcia of Gonzaga (1st, 12:50 4k, 90th 2021 XC) looks strong, with a teammate less than a second behind her (12:51 4k)

Providence women Tuck and Flockhart 17:16 and 17:30 on Franklin Park, Flockhart could be dangerous after her breakout 4:10 1500 in the outdoor season. Their team also could be pretty solid but their five runner was far back.

Virginia women looked good in their debut beating Georgetown, with Margot Appleton (4:17 1500, 4:37 mile as a freshman) and Grace Jensen (Gtown) looking strong, running 13:23 for 4k.

Grace Forbes business as usual winning her first race in 13:38 (4k, 20 sec ahead of second).

Riley Stewart wins her collegiate debut for Stanford (20:48) ten seconds over teammate Lucy Jenks, an underrated talent who ran 15:41 last year and placed 49th at 2021 XC. She could turn some heads in later season meets if she keeps this going.

BYU top three looked great, crossing together in 17:24 (Halladay, Lee, Frentheway) while Hutchins struggled in 19:10 debut.

Sure I am missing some results (maybe HYP meet etc.) but this is what I have seen thusfar.