This reasoning just doesn't work - we don't judge teams by average time, we judge them by top 5 scoring. A team like Williams, because of their low sticks, will do very well on average time - the 27 second gap between Williams #1 and MIT #1 at Conn netted Williams 2 points, while the 22 second gap between MITs 5 and Williams 5 netted MIT 20 points. As the fields get deeper, that point loss from Williams 5 (really, their 3-5) is just going to explode. Conn did not have a particularly deep field, when you add in a lot of the deep teams we are seeing the rest of the country, we could see Williams easily get 200 points just from 3-5. That will put them firmly out of the top 4.
I wasn't comparing teams by average time, which would make no sense. Instead, I used the MIT differential to adjust the Williams times as if they competed in pre-Nationals.
Hypothetically, if Williams was in the pre-Nationals race, with Conn College times +29 seconds, they would have run:
Also note that Williams didn't run their #4 (Nikhil DeNatale) at Conn College. I don't disagree that Williams may well be over 200 points at nationals, but other than MIT/Pomona, I don't see anyone else under 200 points.
That still doesn't make sense. MIT could have just run harder at prenats - they certainly faced better competition there. Also, as the fields get deeper, Lindgren's strong performances will help them more but it will be very much outweighed by what they will lose at the back end.
Also, NCC just looked way better Auggie. Riss looks like a top 10 runner in the nation rightt now, and Nicholson and Svienty look like solid All-Americans. Those three will neutralize Williams front-end strength, and then NCC is much better at 4 and 5 than Williams. And I suspect DeNatale is injured - he certainly hasn't been putting much running on strava.
I wasn't comparing teams by average time, which would make no sense. Instead, I used the MIT differential to adjust the Williams times as if they competed in pre-Nationals.
Hypothetically, if Williams was in the pre-Nationals race, with Conn College times +29 seconds, they would have run:
Also note that Williams didn't run their #4 (Nikhil DeNatale) at Conn College. I don't disagree that Williams may well be over 200 points at nationals, but other than MIT/Pomona, I don't see anyone else under 200 points.
That still doesn't make sense. MIT could have just run harder at prenats - they certainly faced better competition there. Also, as the fields get deeper, Lindgren's strong performances will help them more but it will be very much outweighed by what they will lose at the back end.
Also, NCC just looked way better Auggie. Riss looks like a top 10 runner in the nation rightt now, and Nicholson and Svienty look like solid All-Americans. Those three will neutralize Williams front-end strength, and then NCC is much better at 4 and 5 than Williams. And I suspect DeNatale is injured - he certainly hasn't been putting much running on strava.
Nice try, but if MIT ran harder at Pre-Nats than Conn College, the calculated differential between the two races would be understated not overstated, making my point even stronger.
In any event, I'm not arguing that Williams is better than North Central, which they're likely not without a healthy DeNatale. Rather, I was responding to your anti-Williams rant, which incorrectly suggested that they haven't shown the ability to get on the podium.
When has Williams has shown the ability to get on the podium this season? Their best win is ... Middlebury? St. Olaf? They were handily beaten both times they faced a top 10 D3 team.
Why's everyone so sure Pomona will win this year? Their top guys couldn't hang with the lead pack at auggie. While I'd still say they definitely are the favorite, MIT has a chance.
MIT? The only thing they have a "chance" at is MAYBE loosing their V-Cards. What are they gonna do? Engineer some Fitness?
Nattys prediction:
1. PP
2. Who cares
I remember this same joke getting posted on last year's thread. plagiarized, but still funny.
Pretty sure this poster is from Berman. Wants to fly under the radar going into regionals/natties as they're the only legitimate contender against PP. Not nearly as much depth this year as last but should have at least three in front of the PP pack (4 mile time trial this week 1-3 was all 18:25-18:40, 4-6 19:21, 19:33, 19:40). We'll see about their 4-5 and how these times convert to the course. Looking forward to seeing how they do in their first non-NAIA season.
Pretty sure this poster is from Berman. Wants to fly under the radar going into regionals/natties as they're the only legitimate contender against PP. Not nearly as much depth this year as last but should have at least three in front of the PP pack (4 mile time trial this week 1-3 was all 18:25-18:40, 4-6 19:21, 19:33, 19:40). We'll see about their 4-5 and how these times convert to the course. Looking forward to seeing how they do in their first non-NAIA season.
^^^
All the talk is MIT and Pomona this year. Why. “Pomona’s number 8 ran this time” “MIT guys are losing their virginities” “Elias is actually passing his classes this semester” Shut the f*** up. Berman’s gonna be there when it counts. Dominguez has the raw talent and clutch ability to contend for an individual title and Marciano/Perez will be right behind him. If they can get a solid 4/5 in the top 40 its game over. Say hello to the new D3 powerhouse.
Not sure about all this Berman business. What makes you think they're going to d3 this year? Last year they were dominant in NAIA but haven't seen any results from them so far.
Not sure about all this Berman business. What makes you think they're going to d3 this year? Last year they were dominant in NAIA but haven't seen any results from them so far.
I've heard similar stuff about Berman. Can't confirm but it's not complete BS
For my marathon pace workouts on Wednesday I usually see some of the Berman runners run. I'm guessing the guy that's close to the bike is Dominguez who boy do I tell you looks fit. As I was cooling down I saw him do a 5xMile finishing at 4:18. It was impressive. As for the rest of the pack there were 2-3 about 5 seconds behind him. So yes, don't be surprised.
Williams doesn't have the depth this year to win the title, obviously, but you have to think that Elias Lindgren is the favorite. Although his track times are not as strong as you'd think for what he has run in xc (roughly 1:56/3:53/4:15/8:20/14:15/29:xx), he ran 23:30 last year for second at nationals and he is far superior this year so far. He's undefeated (it probably would have been a good thing for Pete to send him to Nuttycombe or the like so that he could race top level D1 competition at some point during the season) and he ran something like 1:20 or 1:30 faster at Purple Valley (always a slow course, and he ran over 26 last year but 24:43 or so this year) and 1:01 faster at Connecticut Invitational than last year (23:43 vs. 24:44).
Williams doesn't have the depth this year to win the title, obviously, but you have to think that Elias Lindgren is the favorite. Although his track times are not as strong as you'd think for what he has run in xc (roughly 1:56/3:53/4:15/8:20/14:15/29:xx), he ran 23:30 last year for second at nationals and he is far superior this year so far. He's undefeated (it probably would have been a good thing for Pete to send him to Nuttycombe or the like so that he could race top level D1 competition at some point during the season) and he ran something like 1:20 or 1:30 faster at Purple Valley (always a slow course, and he ran over 26 last year but 24:43 or so this year) and 1:01 faster at Connecticut Invitational than last year (23:43 vs. 24:44).
With the Williams team being sick earlier this season and him running so well in early October plus his history of being injured, I wouldn't be surprised if he's stale by then. Some runners can't hold a peak well. Still, an off day for him will be top 10, but I don't see him lining it up on the day. Much more likely Phillips or Collet.
I'm not high on Williams as a team, but on a good day, I think Lindgren is at worst second. I just don't think Collet has shown the strength to keep up with Phillips or Lindgren down the stretch.
I'm not high on Williams as a team, but on a good day, I think Lindgren is at worst second. I just don't think Collet has shown the strength to keep up with Phillips or Lindgren down the stretch.
I'm pretty sure only the top 60ish D1 runners can keep up with Alex Phillip. The rest of the D3 field is likely battling for 2nd, Lindgren included.
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