trundzer wrote:
Tully runners rankings
Boys teams:
No Cherokee trail… surprised
Also, Valor Christian boys should not be in the top 30.
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Still good but yeah wrote:
That mention of Cheyenne Mountain was clearly a mistake. Deep team - thought I heard they had the most sub 5 guys in state history this spring - but it's much too small of a school to consistently compete at that high of level.
And Cory and Olivia really awkwardly stumbled through the Jesuit(s) conversation. Ouch.
IMO the dyestat people seem genuinely more knowledgeable about high school xc than the milesplit crew.
Cheyenne Mountain is only #9 in CO based on returning 1600 times
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One of the first things upon his re-entrance into the school was burying a tradition. Before he came on board in 2019, there was a club at Jesuit. If you broke 16 minutes for three miles, you entered into an elite club.
"I didn't want to be mean, but when I first came here I had to tell them, 'That's not really fast. That shouldn't be our goal," Doody said.
”16 minutes is not that fast for a high school 3-mile. It’s just not that fast.”
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Saladbar who? wrote:
trundzer wrote:
Since Ty Garrett is transferring out of Valor Christian, this team no longer has a chance to get top 2 since that leaves this team with only 3 returners.
They would need to find 2 more guys to close the gap behind their 3rd in order to get top 2.
So I predict Niwot and Cherokee Trail to get top 2 in the Southwest region for the boys.Where is Ty transferring to, any intel? I think they are originally from the midwest.
Back to his old school. Center Grove.
It’s gotta be at least a little bit of a hassle for him to go to switch schools so much (from CG for a year then to VC for 2 years then to CG for one year then to WF).
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trundzer wrote:
NXR top 2 Boys team predictions:
South -
1. Jesuit - returns their whole team. They can do something special at nationals based on their 3200 times.
2. Southlake Carroll - returns their 1-6 and placed 2nd at NXR SE
Watchlist - Woodlands, AtascocitaHeartland -
1. Wayzata - returns 5 guys under 16
2. Dowling Catholic - returns 5 guys under 16:34
Watchlist - Millard West (they will get second if they can find a #5. With their 5th returner at 18:25, it’s hard to predict them to find one) / Iowa CityNortheast -
1. Union Catholic - placed 4th at nationals and returns 5 guys and another transfer that will be scoring
2. CBA - a predominantly dominant team in the NE and returns 6 guys.
Watchlist: Haddonfield Memorial / Bishop Hendricken / Cherokee / Hall High / Coe Brown AcademyCalifornia:
1. Newbury Park - returns 5 sub-15 guys.
2. Grenada - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
Watchlist: Great OakSouthwest:
1. Valor Christian - placed 9th and returns 4 scorers. There’s a bunch of freshmen looking to close the gap.
2. Niwot - returns 5 sub-16 guys
Watchlist: Mountain View, Skyridge, Riverton, Corner Canyon, Mountain Vista (losing lots of seniors but they always reload), Cherokee Trail, American Fork (loses 5 seniors but always seems to reload like crazy)Southeast:
1. Belen Jesuit Prep - a Perronial powerhouse that only loses 2 guys
2. McCallie - returns 5 guys under 16:18
Watchlist: Bolles / Brentwood / University HighMidwest:
1. Carmel - returns 5 guys under 9:49
2. Center Grove - returns 4 guys under 16:18, and also another 4:29 guy.
Watchlist: Liberty North, Mason, Hinsdale Central, Brebeuf Jesuit Prep (if they find a 5th. It will be interesting if they get one. It’s not a big school) / Plainfield / Zionsville Community / Columbus NorthNorthwest:
1. Jesuit - got 3rd at nattys last year and returns 4 guys from that varsity squad. I think they’ll find a 5th based on their depth.
2. Bishop Blanchet - returns a 15:27 average
Watchlist: Lincoln, Franklin, Crater, Boise Senior, Rocky MountainNew York:
1. Corning - placed 2nd at regions but returns their 2-6
2. St Anthony’s - placed 10th at feds but returns 6 varsity guys
Watchlist: FM / Burnt Hills / Saratoga SpringsGirls top 2 NXR predictions
California:
1. Buchanan - placed second at nations / returns all scorers
2. Great Oak - returns the whole varsity team and an 18:26 average
Watchlist: Newbury Park / Oak Ridge / JSerra (2 sub-4:50 1500 freshmen are going there)Heartland -
1. Wayzata - placed 5th at NXR, returns everyone, and adds Abbey Nechanicky, who missed out on NXR
2. Olathe West - placed 4th at NXR / returns everyone
Watchlist: St Paul Highland Park / MinnetonkaSouth -
1. Southlake Carroll - won NXR last year and returns 6 girls
2. Lucas Lovejoy - placed 19th at nationals and returns 5 girls
Watchlist: Flower Mound, VenomSoutheast:
1. Cuthbertson - placed 14th at nationals and returns all scorers
2. Morgantown - returns a 10:59 average in the 3200
Watchlist: Assumption / West Springfield / Marietta / Brentwood / Mountain Brook / Howard / Cardinal GibbonsSouthwest:
1. Niwot - won nationals and returns 5 of their top 8
2. Araprahoe - placed 4th and returns 6 girls
Watchlist: Valor Christian, Mountain Vista, Desert VistaMidwest:
1. York - got 4th at RunningLane and returns 5 of their top 6.
2. Columbus North - returns an 18:14 average
Watchlist: Naperville North / NoblesvilleNorthwest:
1. Jesuit - best returning team in OR
2. Summit - second best returning team in OR
Watchlist: Tahoma / Bishop BlanchetNew York:
1. Saratoga Springs - best team in the nation. What else can I say
2. FM - second at feds / returns 5 girlsNortheast - I honestly think some random teams will get top 2 from here. Not a very strong region. Wouldn’t be surprised if I get this one wrong.
1. Cherokee - won NXR / returns 5 of their top 6
2. Haddonfield Memorial - placed 3rd at regionals and returns 4 scorers
Watchlist: Colts Neck / Union Catholic / North AlleghenyI wouldn't sleep on Highland HS from AZ. They have very good potential and a good coaching staff considering they've been one of the top teams in AZ for several years.
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trundzer wrote:
Explanations on boys NXN predictions:
1. Newbury Park CA - had 5 guys under 15 minutes at RunningLane, and returns 5 guys. Plus Aaron Cantu.
2. Jesuit LA - didn’t graduate anyone at all, and returns 5 guys under 9:22.
3. Granada CA - returns 4 guys under 9:28, and their #2 runner from CC
4. Jesuit OR - placed 3rd last year and returns 4 varsity guys. Should be able to find a 5th over the summer. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere. Always has good depth.
5. Union Catholic - got 4th last year. Loses Brosnan and another top guy, but returns 3 scorers, a transfer who ran a 9:28, and an incoming sophomore who ran a 9:31. So they return 5 guys under 9:31.
6. Great Oak CA. Even with a new coach, they are still doing really well. They lose their 2-4 but track season has shown that they have guys that will be filling in for those who have graduated.
7. Corner Canyon UT. Was very close to winning NXN in 2019 (last time NXN happened). Returns 4 varsity guys. But needs a #5 to step up. They always seem to have someone come out of nowhere though.
8. Niwot CO. A luxurious program that only loses 3 guys, and returns 4 solid seniors and some sophomores that will help this team.
9. Cherokee Trail CO. The Southwest region always deserves an at-large bid. Cherokee Trail Returns their whole squad and will be lead by potential All-American Hunter Strand.
10. Bishop Blanchet WA. Returns most of their squad and looking to be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Schneider and Recupero. They also have a good #3 in Drew Oliver.
11. Crater OR. Losing only one senior from varsity. Should be good enough to get an at-large. Another team that will be lead by 2 potential all-Americans - Gorze and Tostenson.
12. Southlake Carroll TX. Won state and almost won NXR, falling to Grapevine whose #5 had an off race. This is one of the deepest programs in the country, and there will be stiff competitions for the top 7 spots.
13. CBA NJ. A storied program that returns all but 1 runner.
14. Haddonfield Memorial NJ. Should be able to get an at-large bid. They had a 9:35 average in the 3200.
15. Carmel IN. Returns 4 guys from their top 7. Solid program that always finds depth.
16. Wayzata MN. Returns 5 guys under 16 minutes and another guy who ran a 16:13 at NXR. This large program always finds depth.
17. Belen Jesuit Prep FL. Returns 6 guys off the squad that got 5th place at NXR.
18. University High WV. Returns a 9:36 3200 average.
19. Plainfield South IL. Placed ninth at NXR last year and returns all scorers. Brebeuf Jesuit Prep needs a solid #5 to qualify.
20. Corning NY. Returns 5 guys from last years team. They have qualified many times. They’re in the New York region after all.
21. Dowling Catholic IA. Got 9th at NXR last year. Returns 5 of their top 6. Doesn’t say much about NXN though. Millard West needs a 5th runner to qualify again and be as good as last year.
22. St Anthony’s NY. Returns lots of depth and a 4:32 average. Does not say a lot about NXN though.Actually, Center Grove is a better pick than Plainfield South. CG adds Ty Garrett and returns their 1-4. I think they could get top 10.
University High lose their 1 and 2 including Edwards who ran a sub-9 many times. McCallie TN or Bolles FL seem to be the 2 best teams in Southeast behind Belen.
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trundzer wrote:
cwparsons04 wrote:
Just saw your previous response about SW sending 2 at-large bids, who is your other pick? I saw you mentioning AF, but personally my bets are on Riverton. With returning 4 under 16, their 5th looks to be behind a decent amount, but he had a good track season, running 9:42 for 3200 at altitude as a sophomore, and I think they could make some waves this year.
It is actually on the girls side where I think SW will send 2 at large teams. Not the boys. Sorry for the confusion.
I do agree that Riverton boys team is actually for real this year. They placed 4th at NXR and return 4 of their top 5 + a 9:42. This makes it a solid top 5.
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Ha, I'm obviously partial to Southlake Carroll, I've been a huge fan since I moved here 20 years ago. What a history! Maybe arguing top 3 isn't realistic, but I think a solid argument for both boys and girls to be well within the top 10.
Look who I ran into last week!
[IMG]https://www.ferrarichat.com/images/ReedBrown.jpeg[/IMG]
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For boys just going off the MileSplit 5k Returning it puts Southlake in 3rd. From the 1600 Saturday Southlake's #5 returning 5k last year was #1. Also the #7 1600 was a Freshman.
[IMG]https://www.ferrarichat.com/images/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-10%20at%202.20.33%20PM.png[/IMG]
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On the Girls side Milesplit has Carroll at 6th although Kaylie actually graduated and headed to Arkansas. Alexandra is now running #1 and had a 17:26 in March. As usual with this deep of team there will be several moving up into the 18's.
[IMG]https://www.ferrarichat.com/images/Screen%20Shot%202022-08-10%20at%202.27.19%20PM.png[/IMG]
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Sinco wrote:
Decatur (GA) has to be in the conversation in the Southeast. They were the best team in Georgia last season and return the bulk of their top runners including William Carlton (1:58/4:11/9:20) and Jake Westing (1:56/4:18).
Marietta looks good too. They almost won the 7a state meet and return 5 of their guys. Also has the best group of returning 1600 times (although 1600 times are not the best predictors for 5K)
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trundzer wrote:
Sinco wrote:
Decatur (GA) has to be in the conversation in the Southeast. They were the best team in Georgia last season and return the bulk of their top runners including William Carlton (1:58/4:11/9:20) and Jake Westing (1:56/4:18).
Marietta looks good too. They almost won the 7a state meet and return 5 of their guys. Also has the best group of returning 1600 times (although 1600 times are not the best predictors for 5K)
This year Marietta is looking to be the most senior heavy team they had in a long time so I’m sure they will wanna do great things
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Cherokee Trail had 7 guys under 16 at the 5K time trial. 6 seniors.
15:16, 15:34, 15:42, 15:43, 15:57, 15:58, 15:59.
Definitely a top 3 team.
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Preseason rankings…
It will be sad if there are much better teams that are left out of this, especially those that deserve to be in the top 25.
SCN has a strong top 3 but their 4-5 will be too much of a concern for this to be mentioned. I don’t think they will be top 5 in Iowa.
Hil Davidson is no where near the top of OH this year. They only got 4th at the invite last weekend.
Corner Canyon and Valor Christian each had their top guy transfer out. I wonder if they took that into account. That leaves both teams with a strong top 3 but needing a 4 and 5.
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Cocopuff wrote:
Cherokee Trail had 7 guys under 16 at the 5K time trial. 6 seniors.
15:16, 15:34, 15:42, 15:43, 15:57, 15:58, 15:59.
Definitely a top 3 team.
You will need 7 low 15's, at least under 15:30 to be top 3. However, if they've run that already, then maybe they will get where they need to be by end of season.
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RobDragons wrote:
Cocopuff wrote:
Cherokee Trail had 7 guys under 16 at the 5K time trial. 6 seniors.
15:16, 15:34, 15:42, 15:43, 15:57, 15:58, 15:59.
Definitely a top 3 team.
You will need 7 low 15's, at least under 15:30 to be top 3. However, if they've run that already, then maybe they will get where they need to be by end of season.
You realize this was in Colorado at 5600 ft elevation right? Colorado schools always get slept on because elevation is fake and does not effect performance.
if this TT was done on the liberty bell course it still puts them top 10. If it was on their home course it is close to what CM was doing in late October last year21 -
Oldmanrunnerguy wrote:
RobDragons wrote:
You will need 7 low 15's, at least under 15:30 to be top 3. However, if they've run that already, then maybe they will get where they need to be by end of season.
You realize this was in Colorado at 5600 ft elevation right? Colorado schools always get slept on because elevation is fake and does not effect performance.
if this TT was done on the liberty bell course it still puts them top 10. If it was on their home course it is close to what CM was doing in late October last yearThe mistake is thinking only altitude races get adjustment. 5600 elevation has a similar time impact as the 90 degrees and 45% humidity Southlake Carroll had Saturday night for their 3200.
We'll just have to see head to head. ;)
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Oldmanrunnerguy wrote:
RobDragons wrote:
You will need 7 low 15's, at least under 15:30 to be top 3. However, if they've run that already, then maybe they will get where they need to be by end of season.
You realize this was in Colorado at 5600 ft elevation right? Colorado schools always get slept on because elevation is fake and does not effect performance.
if this TT was done on the liberty bell course it still puts them top 10. If it was on their home course it is close to what CM was doing in late October last yearI think you are a bit optimistic thinking Cherokee can go from 18th in the Garmin SILVER race to top 3 in the nation!
Certainly all the juniors last year will have another year of experience, but I think you are also a bit optimistic about how much they will drop with altitude. They certainly didn't drop much last year at the low elevation and an EXTREMELY fast Garmin course 15:56, 15:57, 16:06, 16:11, 16:27, and 16:31.
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RobDragons - Fair enough. I honestly have no clue where CTs TT was or if it was even a 5K not a 3 mile. LibertyBell will be first real indication I think of where they are really at. I do not know much about this CT team though I do know their coach, and I know quite a bit about CO xc in general. FWIW last year Valor had a 15:32 ave at Liberty Bell and Cheyanne Mountain had a 15:31 ave. (this seems to debunk the need for 7 under 15:30 as you claimed as CM was second at Runinglane) CTs time trial was a15:38 ave so pretty close.
I remember the first year of Nike Nationals. Then they didnt have qualifiers and went on National Rankings. Smoky Hill girls got invited as an At-Large team. They took second. They were ranked low because their times were not impressive - Times ran at altitude. Over the years as Colorado has shown they are completive at Nationals the state has gotten more benefit of the doubt.
I could be very wrong about CT and to be honest I hope I am - as harsh as that sounds. I have been adamant about the location of the time trial being a major factor.
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