If Kipchoge wins in 11 days, he’ll dethrone K.B. as the G.O.A.T. distance runner

Your argument actually makes Geb look worse. If World XC is a limited event with not everyone running, then why did Geb fail at his multiple attempts to win it?

Because he didn’t give a sh!t about it like Coe, Cram, Aouita, Farah, Etc. Bekele was the absolute XC GOAT. No one is taking that away from him, but before Bekele it was Tergat and no one here remembers Geb crushing him two years in a row.

The way I interpret the “2:01:41…nuff said” argument is this: Bekele was able to (indirectly, as in not head-to-head) challenge Kipchoge at least once in the latter’s particular domain (the marathon in 2019)—in response to which I think the natural opposing argument is that Kipchoge was able to challenge (beat head-to-head for a gold medal) Bekele and El Guerrouj in their domain (track 5,000m in 2003).

If all you’re willing to consider in this GOAT argument is 12:37/26:17/2:01:41 vs. 12:46/26:49/2:01:39, then of course Bekele wins. But that’s a very shallow appraisal of their twenty year careers.

I’m afraid to get off topic here and veer into a personal tiff, but let me illustrate how this is absurd, or rather how you simply misconstrued my meaning.

The #1 definition of “compelling” is: evoking interest, attention, or admiration in a powerfully irresistible way.

By that definition, which is the one I was using, I haven’t responded to any posts that didn’t compel me to reply.

I’m saying your arguments in Bekele’s favor did not evoke my interest or attention, because I was well aware of everything you stated and was already accounting for it in my assessment.

Stop believing that I must be dodging your arguments because they’re somehow logically irrefutable. That’s incredibly arrogant and frankly just dumb.

For your information, on the track truth be told _ kB was 🔥🔥🔥🔥

He used to be dominant by then_ years ago ..

However, on the roads (especially marathon running), Eliud Kipchoge is the BEAST

He's simply class. Kipchoge's longevity in running is simply mind blowing and a class on its own.

He's still winning, shining and excelling even Now as compared to Bekele.

As for now when you compare KB to Eliud Kipchoge, Eliud is the best and beast of long distance running.

And by the way, on Sunday here in Nairobi Kenya we get to witness the launch of Africa's biggest marathon _ Nairobi city marathon... We'll get to not only run with and cheer our local superstars but others from all over the world... Karibuni (You're welcome)

I think this is a great post. I truly appreciate the part where you say “If you favor Kipchoge’s career over Bekele’s, you do you,” because I honestly have complete respect for the opinion that KB is the GOAT, greater than Kipchoge. I just happen to believe Kipchoge has overtaken him in “career greatness,” which has so many factors to it that it’s impossible to quantify.

I’m sorry for double-posting in response to this one post, but I did intend to address this part. Much like Wise Old Man said, Bikila’s 12 marathon wins, which might otherwise be the strongest part of your statement, are not nearly on the level of Kipchoge’s marathon victories. Just look at his list of wins under the “Marathon performances” tab and tell me that they compare to Kipchoge’s slew of WMMs:

en.m.wikipedia.org

Abebe Bikila

Shambel Abebe Bikila (Amharic: ሻምበል አበበ ቢቂላ; August 7, 1932 – October 25, 1973) was an Ethiopian marathon runner who was a back-to-back Olympic marathon champion. He is the first Ethiopian Olympic gold medalist, winning his a...

Open link

I mean, 4 of those marathons were held in Addis Ababa and one of those was won in 2:39:50.

I still say firmly that Kipchoge’s marathon career is unprecedented. To move the goalpost slightly, try finding me someone whose PB is sub-2:12 whose marathon resume compares with Kipchoge’s.

I appreciate these posts about Bikila. I wasn't aware of the full breadth of Bikila's career, and think he does bear bringing into the conversation. Bikila will of course always be an absolute legend - winning barefoot in world record time over the cobblestone streets of Rome alone secures his immortality in athletics.

But it is evidently clear that the stature of his marathon wins at the time does not compare to those of Eliud, and much more importantly, it is impossible to regard dominance in the 1960's with dominance in the modern era. This is just the nature of things, and the passing of ages.

I'm not an expert, but Bill Rodgers might actually be a more compelling historical analogy - he won a string of important victories in what were at the time the most competitive races available (Boston, NYC, Fukuoka). But even then his career was sprinkled with more DNF's and low finishes, and I think I only count 9 of these top tier victories in his career. (People more knowledgeable of the history, feel free to correct the record and argue for a higher number of 'top tier' victories).

At any rate, the Rodgers comparison fails completely for the same reasons as Bikila - generally, there are less impressive victories and consistency even in relative terms, and in absolute terms, no one can seriously believe that strings of victories in the 2:09-2:16 range can really be the equal of strings of victories in the 2:01-2:04 range. Of course shoes have gotten better, and roads, and fuel, (and for the cynics, dope). But no matter how one spins it, Eliud has been more consistently closer to the absolute maximum of human achievement in the event.

I think the other most compelling thing going for Eliud is how unparalleled his marathon dominance is in the modern era. The marathon greats of the 2010's (Wilson Kipsang, Geoffrey Mutai, Dennis Kimetto, Emmanuel Mutai) burned brightly for a couple years and then exited more or less gracefully from the top of the sport. In every case Eliud has doubled or tripled the careers of these luminous contemporaries.

Haile is worth mentioning here, but even he amassed only 9 career wins at the event. Eliud has 14 (+ 2 exhibition runs that surely would have won any race in the world that year). Eliud is very nearly *twice* as good at the marathon as anyone else ever. You cannot say this about Bekele on the track (see: Geb), and you cannot say this about Bekele on the grass (see: Tergat, perhaps Ngugi). I think that's the kernel of the argument for Kipchoge's overall GOATness.

Another great post, but of course I must quibble a bit.

Firstly, and this is definitely minor, but are you including Bekele’s indoor 5k among the 4 times he broke a 5k/10k WR? Fair enough I guess, but we all know the indoor 5k WR has nowhere near the prestige of the marathon WR in this or any other era. Otherwise, he broke the 5k record once (bringing it from 12:39 to 12:37) and the 10k twice (from 26:22 to 26:20 and then again to 26:17). Kipchoge lowered the marathon WR by 78 seconds.

As for your method of averaging Bekele’s top 5 5k/10k scores vs. Kipchoge’s top 5 marathon scores, surely you must admit this method favors the 5k-10k runner who can race numerous times in a single season (meaning more chances for ideal weather, optimal pacing or just a day when they feel great) and fully recover within weeks over the marathoner who can only race about twice a year, and is at the mercy of the elements—right? You seem like a logical person.

On the other hand (and you might say in direct opposition to the point I just made), I don’t think averaging the top-5 scores of Kipchoge’s 5ks and 10ks vs. Bekele’s top-5 marathons (2 of which were serious outliers) paints an accurate picture of their respective careers in those events whatsoever. For one thing, if you include Kipchoge’s 3k performances, his tally looks like this:

12:46: 1259 points
7:27: 1254 points
7:27: 1254 points
7:28: 1249 points
7:28: 1249 points
avg: 1253 points

Which is exactly the same as Bekele’s top-5 marathon average. Additionally, I don’t think Kipchoge ever made a concerted 5k WR attempt (his 12:46 5k came in a win over Sihine in the 2004 Rome DL). The 2003 WC 5K was run with a 2:43 4th K (13:35 pace), with a 2:24.3 last K and a 53.5 final lap, leader-to-leader, for a 12:52 clocking. You don’t think Kipchoge was capable of more than a bit quicker, as an 18 year old?

I’m absolutely convinced that Kipchoge had a greater career on the track than Bekele has had in the marathon. No question. If you believe Bekele’s career on the track + XC was better than Kipchoge’s marathon career, I can entertain that as a valid opinion. But I feel Kipchoge’s marathon career outdoes Bekele’s track/XC career, and no amount of downvotes will change that opinion.

On the subject of cross country, you accurately state that Tergat and Kamworor never won global track golds. But Tergat came within hundredths of beating a prime Gebrselassie in the Sydney 10k, was the first man under 26:30 when he broke the 10k WR (26:27), and ran 12:49/7:28 for 5k/3k, so it’s not like he didn’t find some success on the track. Kamworor was less successful but still gave absolute prime Farah a run for silver in the 2015 WC 10k. Then you have the other 5-time World XC champ John Ngugi, who won Olympic 5k gold in 1988, and the most recent World XC champ Joshua Cheptegei who we all know about. There’s a strong correlation between XC success and 5k/10k track success, and while dominance in one doesn’t guarantee dominance in another, it’s not exactly surprising or shockingly impressive.

My final point before I stop posting on this thread for the night (jk I’ll likely post more) is that even if the purists hate it, and I don’t take it into account 100% myself, Kipchoge’s 2:00:25/1:59:41 illegal, well-publicized time trials have to count for something. My friggin’ mom knows who Eliud Kipchoge is. Kenenisa Bekele, not at all.

The whole discussion of this thread is subjective.

Eliud wasn't the best on track. Maybe he was very good at age 18 but the track performances doesn't work in a linear equation. He failed to confirm his superiority in 2004, 2005 until 2012 where he turned to road running.

Consider this viewpoint:
At one point in time...
Kipchoge was the World's Best in Cross Country (Lausanne, '03)
Kipchoge was the World's Best on the Track (Paris, '03)
Kipchoge was the World's Best on Road ('Rio, '16, Tokyo, '20)
The same cannot be said for Bekele (never best on road) or Geb (never best in XC).

Good points but Eliud was the World's Best Junior in Cross Country (Lausanne, '03)

Thank you for considering this. The key phrase of my assessment of Bikila is that he was "more accomplished in his time." I'm not saying Bikila was a better marathoner than Kipchoge; that would be absurd. I'm just saying he was more accomplished in his time. One can only compete against other runners in his time, and in his time, Bikila accomplished more than Kipchoge, evidenced by the fact that he has more wins, he broke the world record on more than one occasion, and he lowered the world record by a greater margin. At the very least, their accomplishments are close as they are both two-time Olympic marathon champions. Personally, I'm much more impressed by a guy winning an Olympic marathon while running barefoot than a guy who won with a supershoe advantage.

The junior caveat is noteworthy. I don't take junior achievements into consideration in this debate. Kipchoge was the best junior, but he was never the best in the world at cross country.

The majority of us here also seem to agree that consistent dominance is more important to the GOAT debate than "at one point in time." Kipchoge has been consistently dominant in one domain: the marathon. That's it. Bekele was consistently dominant in two distinct domains: track and cross country, while adding a near world record twice in a third domain. No other modern day runner can make the same claim.

To really distill this argument down, can the dominance in one domain, the marathon in this discussion, ever become so overwhelming as to overcome another’s dominance in two? (yes, there is some discussion if xc truly merits its own category, and yes, each did score some crossover achievements.). The KB camp says no to this question. It will not matter if EK breaks the wr again in Berlin this fall, or if he then adds NY and Boston in 2023, or if he finishes up his career winning in Paris. The KB purists will only concede if EK goes back and wins the 5/10 in Paris…..no even then he needs to pick up some xc titles!

That’s ridiculous. Claiming that Kipchoge was the World Best in cross country for winning the 2003 junior race (when Bekele won both senior races) is like claiming that Bekele was the World Best on the roads in Berlin 2019.

Thank you for considering my ideas. I will grant you that Kipchoge lowered the world record by much more than Bekele ever did in the 5K or 10K. That's definitely a feather in Kipchoge's cap. I did mention that Kipchoge's marathon world record is a better mark than anything Bekele produced, albeit by 2 measly seconds.

Re: their performance scores, it's contradictory to say such a comparison favors the track standout and then turn around and try to dismiss the fact that Kipchoge never challenged the world record on the track. Kipchoge competed on the track for nearly a decade, from 2003-2012 during his age 18-27 seasons. Why couldn't he have run faster? Surely there were plenty of opportunities, as Bekele achieved his marks during that exact same time span.

It's also not the case that Bekele caught lightning in a bottle and ran a bunch of fast times on the track in a short time span like Daniel Komen. Bekele ran track times that still rank in today's all-time top 10 list in four different years: 2004, 2005, 2007, and 2008.
Kipchoge failed to achieve a top-10 performance on the track during his age 18-27 seasons. Bekele ran the second fastest marathon ever (and just two seconds off Kipchoge's world record) at age 37. Huge advantage for Bekele!

As for cross country, I believe GOAT debates are measured in terms of consistent dominance. Not who had success defined in terms of a single championship, secondary medals, and contender status. Just sheer consistent dominance. Ngugi won that single gold medal, but he was not consistently dominant on the track. Tergat deserves credit for his world record, and he definitely gave Geb all he could handle on the track, but in the end he failed to get the job done when it mattered most. Cheptegei's cross country record is a mixed bag. He has the one global championship to go with the one infamous bonk. He still has a lot of time ahead of him, so may yet join Bekele as someone who has been consistently dominant in both cross country and track, and if he does then he might stake his own claim to be the GOAT. At this point, however, there is one and only one modern day runner who has been consistently dominant at both track and cross country, and his name is Kenenisa Bekele.

You guys not realize he WON WORLD JUNIOR XC AND WORLD SENIOR 5000M THAT SAME YEAR!!!!!! If he had been entered in the Senior XC Race, he would have won as well, because he whooped Bekele and El G on the track that year in a GOAT PERFORMANCE.

World Junior = World Best

Given your 2 vs 1 argument, is there anything EK could do on the roads going forward that would tip the balance in his favor? Can the 1 every be so incredible as to overcome the 2?