Haha, you called me ignorant about track once for questioning why Amos could run fast one week and slow another week. Yet now you assume Aouita could have ran in 88 what he ran in 87 or 89 even though he was training for a completely different event that year and ran much slower at everything from 1500 to 2 miles in 88?
You also assume Jakob is no faster this year than last year, even though he's still19 and just ran 1 1/2 seconds faster than Cram in an empty stadium during lockdown.
You make it up as you go along.
Don't use harsh words when you are out of arguments please. People who set very fast times as teenagers usually don't improve a lot in their twenties.
It's a cold, hard fact.
--------------------
No it is a postulate without any supporting arguments.
Here are some 800m runners who ran fast as teenagers but still improved significantly up into their twenties:
Steve Ovett, Mehdi Baala, Nick Willis, Nick Symmonds, M. Levandowski, Adam Kzczot, Souleiman, Iguider, Charli Grice, Jake Wightman, Timothy Cheruiyot, Josh Kerr, Donovan Brazier
These were some examples to prove you wrong.
Now give my some examples that you are right!
Coach Oz should’ve had Lester do a virtual race against the Ingebristsen Bros. 1:46 for sure.
Maybe they should give it a go anyway. Lester’s gotta open with 51.HIGH. Rabbit stays in lane 2, Lester stays in lane 1 hugging the rail Centro style.
Coevett wrote:
ex-runner wrote:
Coevett expects 1:42
Everyone else expects 1:45
No, I expect 1:44.5 - 1.45.5 from Jakob.
That would already mean he has close to surpassed Aouita in terms of range of times, because Aouita was.never a 1:43 guy in any season he was capable of sub 13:00 or 3:29.
Btw, I wonder what you think Donovan Brazier or Nijel Amos would run if they were able to compete in the same race tomorrow? 1:42? I don't think so.
You guys, all of you, really have no clue about threshold training. They are training like 5k runners all year and have never run a good 400 or 800 compared to their 1500 level. They are extremely aerobically strong slow twitch runners, they will not run fast 800m races.
they aren't slow wrote:
Armstronglivs wrote:
Basic speed is a term from Lydiard. It refers to the sprint capability of athlete over a sustained distance. His measure was 200. He believed basic speed determined the event an athlete was best suited to. An 800 runner requires a higher basic speed than an athlete competitive at a longer distance.
Typically a sub-1.45 runner over 800 would require sub-23 speed over 200 and hence sub-49 over 400. (Snell was a 22-low 200 runner, as was Ryun, and Walker was near that. All were sub-1.45). As middle distance athletes go, most sub-1.45 runners are fast, in terms of their basic speed. The Ingebrigstens don't have that kind of speed. That is one of the reasons they rarely race the distance.
You glossed over my point about Alan Webb. I don't think the argument "if he was faster he would race this event more" is particularly compelling, but I guess we disagree.
I understand the concept of basic speed, I just didn't know what point you were trying to make. The statement "To beat 1.45 requires higher basic speed than 3.31 for 1500" can be read a couple different ways, but no matter how I interpret it it doesn't seem all that relevant to the discussion. Help me out here.
All the talk about the brothers' 200/400 speed is pure conjecture. I happen to think they can run close to 48 which would be good enough for sub 1:45. Nick Symmonds ran 47.45 just a couple weeks before breaking 1:43, and I know the Ingebrigtsens have better strength than him. But like I said, it's all conjecture. We'll find out which of us was closer once they've actually raced.
I wasn't clear what point you were making about Webb, except that in 2006 it might not have been predicted he could have run a sub-1.44. You may be right about that but to run a time of that order he had to have a high level of basic speed for a middle distance runner - sub-23 for 200 and 48 for 400. I haven't seen any evidence that Jakob has that kind of speed. His best times for the 400 and 800 are slow - admittedly a couple of years ago - but while he is likely to be faster I don't see that it will be by much. He shows that relative lack of speed when he gets out-kicked by competitors, and this despite his exceptional strength endurance. His father has even said that his sons lack speed.
My further point about times for an 800 vis a vis comparable performances over longer distances is the simple one that as the distances increase the need for pace as against endurance diminishes. Hence, in terms of their sprint capacity 400 runners are typically faster than 800 runners, who are faster than 1500 runners and so on. For a low 3.30's 1500 runner a comparable performance over 800 will be more difficult unless they are equally suited to the shorter distance - which means a higher basic speed is required. I don't think you can run 1.45 unless you can run sub-23 for 200 - although you may be able to run 3.30-low for 1500. Do you really think Jakob is a sub-23 and 48x runner?
My last point is that athletes tend to run their best distances and leave those that don't suit them. Of course there will be exceptions, but when it comes to the 800 I don't think Jakob will be one of them. So I'm still picking a time in the region of 1.46. if he's faster than that I will be surprised and may revise my view of his speed.
ex-runner wrote:
Coevett wrote:
No, I expect 1:44.5 - 1.45.5 from Jakob.
That would already mean he has close to surpassed Aouita in terms of range of times, because Aouita was.never a 1:43 guy in any season he was capable of sub 13:00 or 3:29.
Btw, I wonder what you think Donovan Brazier or Nijel Amos would run if they were able to compete in the same race tomorrow? 1:42? I don't think so.
Aouita ran 1:43 so no Jakob hasn't surpassed him.
He also ran that in 1988 and he ran 12:58 in 1987 and 13:00 in 1989 so not sure where you are getting your data. And he was running 3:30 at that time also.
No you are right, Brazier and Amos, 800 specialists who jog 1:45s in rounds, would lose to Jakob tomorrow...
I said close to surpassing him. If Jakob runs low to mid 1:44, and you yourself said he could have ran 3:29 and 12:55 last year, then he's close to surpassing Aouita in times.
If Jakob runs 1:44.5, 3:29.0, 12:52 this year (or whenever), he's surpassed Aouita.
Aouita could never run 1:43 in a normal year. He barely broke 1:44 once in a perfect race with Barbosa and Grey effectively pacing him, in a season he ran the 800m 8 times, the 1000m twice, and 3:32 appeared to be his 1500m limit.
Btw, Said Aouita's 88 was the only year since his 'transformation' in 83 when he ran as a middle.distance runner I.e 800/1500 as Coe, Cram, and Ovett were every year.
And he finished with 1:43.8 and 3:32.6 and a bronze in the 800m in a field absolutely decimated by injury.
Yet people often claim he's the greatest ever middle-distance runner.
He wasn't even the best 800/5000 runner. Steve Ovett could have medalled in the 800/5000 in the same year in 1980. If he had moved up seriously to the 5000m in 80 he would likely have beaten Yifter and gone sub 13.
19 year old Jakob would beat 1985 Aouita at every distance from 800m to half-marathon. Probably smash him in the steeplechase too.
objectiveobserver wrote:
You have proved nothing and you are immune to reasoning!
Otherwise you would understand the above statistics!
I used to like you, but you just proved you're the dumbest person to ever live. Even a 3 yo would understand what he's trying to say
Coevett wrote:
ex-runner wrote:
Aouita ran 1:43 so no Jakob hasn't surpassed him.
He also ran that in 1988 and he ran 12:58 in 1987 and 13:00 in 1989 so not sure where you are getting your data. And he was running 3:30 at that time also.
No you are right, Brazier and Amos, 800 specialists who jog 1:45s in rounds, would lose to Jakob tomorrow...
I said close to surpassing him. If Jakob runs low to mid 1:44, and you yourself said he could have ran 3:29 and 12:55 last year, then he's close to surpassing Aouita in times.
If Jakob runs 1:44.5, 3:29.0, 12:52 this year (or whenever), he's surpassed Aouita.
Aouita could never run 1:43 in a normal year. He barely broke 1:44 once in a perfect race with Barbosa and Grey effectively pacing him, in a season he ran the 800m 8 times, the 1000m twice, and 3:32 appeared to be his 1500m limit.
Btw, Said Aouita's 88 was the only year since his 'transformation' in 83 when he ran as a middle.distance runner I.e 800/1500 as Coe, Cram, and Ovett were every year.
And he finished with 1:43.8 and 3:32.6 and a bronze in the 800m in a field absolutely decimated by injury.
Yet people often claim he's the greatest ever middle-distance runner.
He wasn't even the best 800/5000 runner. Steve Ovett could have medalled in the 800/5000 in the same year in 1980. If he had moved up seriously to the 5000m in 80 he would likely have beaten Yifter and gone sub 13.
19 year old Jakob would beat 1985 Aouita at every distance from 800m to half-marathon. Probably smash him in the steeplechase too.
A bit rich wen Jakob hasn't run faster than 13:02.
So a minute faster than Aouita was running at 23, never mind 18?
If Aouita can go from 1:50/3:40/14:00 to 1:45/3:30/13:00 at age 24/25 I'm confident that Jakob can maintain his progression sufficiently to go from 1:46?/3:30/13:02 to 1:45/3:29/12:52 at age 19/20.
All the evidence from his two outings this season in very strange and difficult circumstances would suggest that to an objective and fair observer.
Coevett wrote:
Haha, you called me ignorant about track once for questioning why Amos could run fast one week and slow another week. Yet now you assume Aouita could have ran in 88 what he ran in 87 or 89 even though he was training for a completely different event that year and ran much slower at everything from 1500 to 2 miles in 88?
You also assume Jakob is no faster this year than last year, even though he's still19 and just ran 1 1/2 seconds faster than Cram in an empty stadium during lockdown.
You make it up as you go along.
What is this post? Like really?
Makes absolutely no sense. What is the point you are trying to make? This is just rambling.
Jakob hasn't shown any range at all so far. He has a good 1500 and a good 5k. That's it.
Aouita is the only person to ever have won Olympic medals at the 800m and 5000m. He was attempting the 1500 at the Olympics also in 1988 also but picked up a hamstring injury.
Why are you comparing the two athletes it makes no sense? Aouita was Olympic champion in the 5000, has an Olympic bronze in the 800 (serious speed) was world champion in the 5000 and 3000 and has a 1500 world champs medal.
Also he broke the 5000m WR twice, 3000m WR, 2000m WR and 1500m WR during his career.
All his PBs are faster than Jakob and they were run in the 80s.
I just don't understand why you are making such bizzare statements. You can't hang medals around Jakob's neck, he has to actually do it. He can't be better than a multiple world and Olympic champion when he hasn't won a single thing.
I don't even care about PBs (where Jakob is still slower). Silas Kiplagat ran 3:27 does that make him better than Aouita? Absolutely not.
You outed yourself as 'objective observer' now also. So unhinged.
Again, Weldon asked me to be civil so I'm going to try my best. Obviously you weren't given the same message.
You understood perfectly what I said.
Amos can threaten the WR a couple of weeks after appearing to be out of form and I've 'never set foot on a track' for not understanding athletes can peak suddenly and then dip in such short timeframes, and yet you assume Aouita could have ran the same times in 88 when training for the 800m as he did in 87 and 89 when training for the 5000m (not to mention he was objectively slower in 88 at distances longer than 800)?
Are you actually interested in having a fair and reasonable discussion?
Sometimes, rarely, you do make a valid point. When you do so, I just think to myself - 'fair enough, he's right there this time'.
When you see I make a fair point, you just shout idiot at me and look for a way to pick a fight, or as above, when you can't actually make a point against me, you just claim you don't understand.
Btw, I was reading a recent interview with Aouita and he was asked if doping was a problem in his era as it is evidently today. He replied he didn't think so, but he did have occasional suspicions about competitors who would run one week and not the next.
Aouita knows nothing about track!
*run well one week and not the next'.
Well, Jakob isn't fast. He has put on some weight. But faster than 1.46 today is not possible either for him or Filip. They don't train for that. They will do approx. 52,5 on the first 400 meters. Boysens 1.45.9 from 1955 might be the goal.
Coevett wrote:
Again, Weldon asked me to be civil so I'm going to try my best. Obviously you weren't given the same message.
You understood perfectly what I said.
Amos can threaten the WR a couple of weeks after appearing to be out of form and I've 'never set foot on a track' for not understanding athletes can peak suddenly and then dip in such short timeframes, and yet you assume Aouita could have ran the same times in 88 when training for the 800m as he did in 87 and 89 when training for the 5000m (not to mention he was objectively slower in 88 at distances longer than 800)?
Are you actually interested in having a fair and reasonable discussion?
Sometimes, rarely, you do make a valid point. When you do so, I just think to myself - 'fair enough, he's right there this time'.
When you see I make a fair point, you just shout idiot at me and look for a way to pick a fight, or as above, when you can't actually make a point against me, you just claim you don't understand.
Btw, I was reading a recent interview with Aouita and he was asked if doping was a problem in his era as it is evidently today. He replied he didn't think so, but he did have occasional suspicions about competitors who would run one week and not the next.
Aouita knows nothing about track!
You are taking the Amos statement completely out of context. He had injury issues.
Aouita won many 1500 and mile races in 1988 including a 3:50. In 1987 he ran 1:44, 3:30, 3:46 and 12:58. What actually is your point?
Jakob is going to struggle to run 1:45 and you think that makes him superior to Aouita who ran 1:43 and a few 1:44s throughout his career, and won international medals in the 800, 1500, 3000 and 5000. I just don't understand it.
What fair point have you made?
That Jakob is better than multiple champion and world record breaker Aouita? Because he ran 3:30 in a time trial, didn't win a single race over any distance and came 4th at world's?
And now that you know more about track and field than Aouita?
You are being an idiot here, I don't need to shout it.
ex-runner wrote:
You outed yourself as 'objective observer' now also. So unhinged.
It's not like some poster didn't tell us. And I must agree with him: 9/10
Cool without pot wrote:
ex-runner wrote:
You are immune to understanding, it seems.
Please tell me when Jakob will run faster than 1:45? Him and the brothers only run one 800 every 3-5 years.
Are you serious ex-runner? You haven't yet realized who you're replying to?
I will give you a couple of hints:
A history of pretending to be a non-native English speaker, he even admitted it.
And yet, a non-native English speaker who makes lots of mistakes in his posts suddenly comes up with this sentence?
objectiveobserver wrote:
Do you have some arguments for your postulate?
The usual top-3:
objectiveobserver wrote:
Steve Ovett. age 17 1:47.34; age 22 1:44.09
Seb Coe. age 20 1:44.95; age 24 1:41.73
Steve Cram. age 20 1:46.29; age 24 1:42.88
An obsession with showing off a supposed degree and expertise in logic:
objectiveobserver wrote:
Do you have a master degree in logic?
lol
You are being trolled.
9/10 Arthur ;)
Coevett wrote:
That would already mean he has close to surpassed Aouita in terms of range of times, because Aouita was.never a 1:43 guy in any season he was capable of sub 13:00 or 3:29.
Aouita ran 3:30 the year before and 3:30 the year after. For the 5K, he ran 12:58 the year before and 13:06 the year after. He didn’t focus on those events in ‘88, but his times didn’t noticeably decline; he most certainly was still capable of those marks.
Aouita was a 1:44 guy when he ran 3:32 and became even better when he specialized. Filip has improved his 800 since dropping his 1500 to 3:32/3:30, but he’s still a consistent 1:47/1:48 guy. The Ingebrigtsens lack raw speed; they are all 1500/5K specialists.
What time eastern is the race?
I predict 1:46.5 for Jakob.
Hasn't Gjert said that he thinks Jakob's sweet spot will be the half marathon? I assume he knows what he's talking about, and that suggests to me that he isn't like Webb who was 1:43/3:30, but more like Geb who went 3:31 and sub 58 for the half and an unimpressive 800 time.
Portsea Cerutsea wrote:
Coevett wrote:
That would already mean he has close to surpassed Aouita in terms of range of times, because Aouita was.never a 1:43 guy in any season he was capable of sub 13:00 or 3:29.
Aouita ran 3:30 the year before and 3:30 the year after. For the 5K, he ran 12:58 the year before and 13:06 the year after. He didn’t focus on those events in ‘88, but his times didn’t noticeably decline; he most certainly was still capable of those marks.
Aouita was a 1:44 guy when he ran 3:32 and became even better when he specialized. Filip has improved his 800 since dropping his 1500 to 3:32/3:30, but he’s still a consistent 1:47/1:48 guy. The Ingebrigtsens lack raw speed; they are all 1500/5K specialists.
In a nutshell.