NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Ventura boys team wins CIF prelims for heat 1.

In the last meet, DeGeorge and J Sloan ran the 6th and 7th fastest times on the Ventura team, but they didn’t run in this race for some reason.

Ventura had a good 3-4-5 compression though.

For me, CBA 2023 is the best team to ever emerge from the Northeast. The definition of being crushed would be for CBA 2023 to have three SW teams finish ahead of them at NXN. These teams are American Fork, Herriman and Niwot.
As for the unnecessary hate, it's all in good fun. According to Connor Burns, "drama is good for the sport." It's enjoyable to initiate a new rivalry between East and West, a dynamic that seemed non-existent in recent years.
Concerning the at-large bids, the Southwest is worried that they might have a highly competitive fourth team, and their bid might be awarded to the third team from the Northeast. There's apprehension that the team receiving the bid might not live up to its projected strength. In 2019, California's Jesuit (77:50) lost its at-large bid to El Paso, which subsequently finished last at NXN. Thus, such scenarios can indeed unfold.

I think it's important not to conflate a successful season with a bad race at nationals. A team can deserve a bid and then race poorly. NXN qualifying and travel is different for every region. Every region has advantages and disadvantages. For example some teams will book a ticket this weekend and others have to wait 2 weeks.

The reason why El Paso Eastwood got an at-large bid is because they won the TX state meet in a merge. There were even some Texas posters on here that thought that this at-large pick was wrong since the merge meant nothing; the weather can be different at different race times. They weren’t surprised that Eastwood got last at NXN.

Jesuit was a better team and had a better team structure in 2019. Jesuit had a front runner unlike Eastwood. Eastwood was 5-deep but Jesuit was at least 7-deep

Jesuit wasn't just a "better" team. They were one of the best teams that year.

While acknowledging the historical significance of the Bob Firman course, it's time to reconsider the NXR Northwest Regional course, especially now that Idaho has become a powerhouse. Idaho's high-altitude training gives them a unique advantage on this course at 2,540 feet above sea level. This poses a challenge for other sea-level northwest teams, and I believe there's a specific strategy to navigate this course effectively. For instance, Gig Harbor averaged only 16:12 on that course but later won NXN convincingly over teams like CBA (2013) and Arcadia (2013), both extensively discussed in this thread. Bozeman, with a 15:53 average on the same course, surprised everyone by winning NXN in 2016 over the favorite, American Fork, with a substantial margin. The crux of the matter is whether numerous teams perform poorly on this course, or if a sub-16:00 5k time is equivalent to an NXN title. It's one or the other. From my perspective, either the teams in the region are exceptionally competitive, or teams from sea level struggle significantly when running this course for the first time. Illustrating this, consider Great Oak in 2022, finishing 6th in NXN with a 16:16 average and placing 4th at Bob Firman. In 2023 Bob Firman Invitational Herriman averages 15:34, Trabuco Hills secured 8th place with a 16:13 average at Bob Firman, while early-season Dana Hills (missing a key runner) claimed 12th with a 16:17 average. Early-season Dana Hills, with the same squad, posted a 14:43 average at Woodbridge, 22 seconds worse than Herriman. When Dana Hills participated in the Bob Firman Invitational, their average increased from 22 seconds to 43 seconds behind Herriman. Trabuco Hills had a 33-second average behind Herriman at Woodbridge, increasing to a 39 average at Bob Firman. As mentioned earlier, either Herriman significantly improved on that course, or there's a unique challenge that sea-level teams face when running it for the first time.

Tell us again, how many Idaho teams have made it to NXN showing some local dominance?

This “unique challenge” for the sea level (aka California teams) is that it is a cross country course. It’s not a road race. Mystery solved.

5, all girls.

Rocky Mountain did not race a serious schedule this fall. If they don’t have a good performance here and don’t qualify, I think it’s fair to question if their coach is doing what he can to get his varsity kids the best looks possible to run in college, or if he is selling them on keeping the team together so that they can minimize the disruptions to their lives with a wife that is pursuing qualifying for a US team.

For a team that screams about how good they are, I bet they’ll have 0 wins prior to today over teams that are top 5 in their region.

CBA - 15:56 average, Westfield 16:11 average homdel park today. Union Catholic/Ridgefield lackluster result

Very good showing for Northwest today.
- Neil sets new course record 14:49
- Many very fast individual runners under 15:15
- CDA first with 15:45 average
- Crater second with 15:43 average
- Franklin third 15:50 average
- Rocky Mountain 4th - 15:48 average
- 5 teams under 16;00 average
- Individual qualifiers are Nathan Neil, Landon Heemeyer, Parker Mong, Jack Hendzke, Jack Meier

New York State meet.

Boys:
Nolan McGinn wins in 15:48.
Saratoga beat Monroe Woodbury in a tiebreaker. Monroe Woodbury is 4-deep but didn’t have a 5th to quite get it done.

Girls:
Saratoga dominates.
FM took third but Sullivan, who went to NXN last year was 5th on the team.
No Bethlehem Central because they didn’t make state. They needed to get through Saratoga to qualify. I think both teams will make NXN again.
Emily Bush 17:34. She has been on Saratoga’s varsity since middle school.

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/NYS_Girls2023.htm

St Anthony’s NY (last year’s NXN qualifiers)

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/CHSAA_Champ2023.htm

Is it safe to assume that Rocky Mountain will overtake Jesuit, CA, as
the new fastest team not to qualify for NXN until NXR Southwest takes
place? Additionally, what are the chances that Franklin will secure a
bid? Considering that the Northwest region has been a punching bag for
the Southwest this year, and Franklin lost to Valor Christian earlier in
the season. Rocky Mountain also faced setbacks, losing to three
Southwest teams at Bob Firman. Crater, too, had its share of challenges,
losing to teams at Woodbridge. What are people's opinions on this?

On the plus side for Franklin, has a solid team time. Score wise they aren’t far away from Crater and Jesuit. They beat Crater earlier in the season. But it was “that” race where crater raced 2 races in 24 hours

Franklin and Rocky both averaged really solid times on this course, at 15:50 and 15:49 respectively.

The SW seems to be pretty much a lock for two at larges, so:

Once the NXR's are over, I think that the NW can get two bids, as long as the NE and California teams in particular (although the same goes for any other region) can't manage to pull off a similarly impressive average in their given course's historical context.

For example, if there are 0 NE teams that can average in the low to mid 16's at NXR, aside from the top two, than any at larges they would get should probably be given to the NW (barring an incredibly close team score and exonerating circumstances)

If one team from another region does make a really impressive statement at NXR, then Franklin should get a bid but not Rocky. If two teams outside of Franklin have impressive NXR averages, then the head to head matchups observed earlier in the season should dictate who get's bids.

Does anyone know why Recupero, Powell, and Jeffrey Hellmann came across in 18:32 for last place all together??

If rankers don’t even know how good southwest is, why should we expect the nxn committee to know?

I wish more southwest teams came out to Woodbridge, so Rich can see them up close.

Orem and Mountain View came out last year but not this year. Woodbridge is more fun with more southwest representation. Just Rock Canyon and Herriman this year.

As for the girls, plenty of southwest teams came, air academy was lit.

Weird that 3 of the last fastest runners in the race finish last