New Yorker: How Fast Would Usain Bolt Run The Mile? - Yours truly bets his house it would be over 5+

The article was just featured on the Today show.

Hoda said she would bet a million dollars that Usain Bolt would break 5 if he wanted to

Kim Collins: 8:00 for a match race! It included walking on the part of both sprinters and they were completely gassed afterwards.

The guy's never even run an "all out" 800 for time, and we're expecting him to put fourth a solid effort for double that distance?

Maybe he could go sub-5, but he has no motivation to do so. In his prime, he wouldn't even go all-out in the 100m or 200m at the olympics.... he would start jogging and celebrating toward the end.

Older guy wrote:

In fact, give Bolt 2-3 years and he could become very good at soccer, football, basketball, tennis, or any number of other sports. If he had started as a teen, maybe one of the greatest.

Great athletes are not like the rest of us. Most can do nearly anything athletic very well, even if they are world class in only one narrow specialty.

Tell that to Michael Jordan. The GOAT wasn't able to make the majors in baseball.

You think Bolt could be great at tennis. Are you crazy? Tennis players have incredible quickness side to side.

Bolt isn't a great athlete. He's a great runner. The number of guys that ran for me at Cornell that told me that they started running because they "got cut from baseball, soccer, etc" is a long one.

Add It Up wrote:

Let's flip the script and have a top miler (3:28 1500= 3:45 mile) run 100m:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJMIwlQB-28

12.98, which equals about 5:15 mile performance level. And Farah runs a lot more 100m in training than Bolt runs full mile.

With no mile training: 5:30+

WIth a year of mile training, not sprinting: 4:50-5:10

Post of the YEAR!!! Great find. For those of you with youtube access blocked at work, it's a video of Mo Farah racing a 100 m from blocks on tv in 2012. He ran 12.98.

NYC baby! wrote:

At the Fifth Avenue Marathon, it's about 150-200 (nonelites) of the field of 3000 or so (males) that break 5:00.

Thank you and those are distance runners.

The ND study had no one breaking 5:00 out of 125 students.

show me the study wrote:

The article was just featured on the Today show.

Hoda said she would bet a million dollars that Usain Bolt would break 5 if he wanted to

Who is Hoda?

whattheheck wrote:

Metric Miler wrote:

Lots of them can run a decent 800m too, yet still struggle in the 1500m. SURELY a decathletes who can run 45/46 in the 400m and likely sub 1:50 should EASILY break 3:50 in the 1500m? Right? Makes you wonder...

This is a very similar topic to a thread someone started about swimming. Physiologically, the mile is far, far closer to the marathon than it is to the 100m/200m.

Yeah but those FT decathletes who need to carry more mass than a sprinter to do all the throws still run 4:20-4:30 1500ms after competing in 9 events. Not blistering but say 20s faster than 5:00.

The thing about bolt is that he is big (something like 200lbs). Make it someone just as fast but more normal weight (say Tyson gay at 165 or Gatlin at 185) and I would like the odds better.

Bolt is bigger and heavier than near all the decathletes. The athletic looking ones run 4:30+ for the 1500m with the odd one who is slimmer and has better endurance than the others running in the 4:20s.

There was a video before of a Ashton Eaton, who is very much lighter than Bolt, with far more endurance, quicker over 400m whilst being much slower over 100m (so more endurance inclined) struggling to run a 2 minute time trial in the 800m whilst being paced the whole way.

Ashton Eaton can run 4:40 in the mile I'm sure. Bolt will be much slower. He is much heavier, and far, far more fast twitch.

Also want everyone to remember that evidence shows that endurance training doesn't improve endurance for everyone in the same way. Some don't improve at all. Sprinters are sprinters for a reason, and responding well to endurance training is a key talent in endurance athletes.

show me the study wrote:

The article was just featured on the Today show.

Hoda said she would bet a million dollars that Usain Bolt would break 5 if he wanted to

Here is part of the today show clip:

Bolt runs 1000s in 2.50 in training. Why would sub 5 for a mile be impossible for him?

rojo wrote:

Add It Up wrote:

Let's flip the script and have a top miler (3:28 1500= 3:45 mile) run 100m:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJMIwlQB-28

12.98, which equals about 5:15 mile performance level. And Farah runs a lot more 100m in training than Bolt runs full mile.

With no mile training: 5:30+

WIth a year of mile training, not sprinting: 4:50-5:10

Post of the YEAR!!! Great find. For those of you with youtube access blocked at work, it's a video of Mo Farah racing a 100 m from blocks on tv in 2012. He ran 12.98.

Waaaat! Which conversion calculator are you using? Here's the problem with this logic. If we are going to use the running conversion algorithms to make predictions for world class runners running other distances, then those algorithms better be right for ALL, or at least most, of the world class runners we plug into the calculator.

So we start with Farah:

3:28 1500 > converts to > 3:45 mile

12.98 100 > converts to > 5:15 mile

Then the weird logic comes for Bolt:

45 400 > converts to > 5:30 mile

First of all the algorithm was COMPLETELY wrong on Farah, about as wrong as it can get, so whatever algorithm was used to convert 12.98 to 5:15 simply does not work on world class athletes. Then we jump from a 45 sec 400 to a 5:30 mile. Where did that come from?

That post was incoherent. I want half of rojo's tent.

If this was without any training and Rojo went down to the track in Rio, put $200k (the Rossi money) on the track and told Bolt all he had to do was run 4:59.99 to collect the money, my prediction is that Bolt does the ultimate sprinter move and DNFs with a hammie pull on the first turn at the start of the 4th lap.

If Bolt is allowed to train for 6 months, I think he goes under 5.

I've seen 230 lb decathletes who do no distance training run under 4:30 in the 1500m. I think Bolt could run a mile under 5 minutes right now if he was motivated.

If a powerlifter with a detached hamstring can start running in his 30s and run a 4:15 mile at 220 lbs while wearing Hokas, certainly Bolt could break 5 minutes.

Usain Bolt versus Corey Bellemore running a beer mile. Put it on TV or superstars or something.

It's called "introconversion", or reciprocal conversion. We are comparing 100m and mile (or 1500 equivalent) performance levels in both directions. I know this is a very difficult concept for some of you. At least rojo gets it.http://www.oevas.gr/index.php/en/iaaf-scoring-tables/iaaf-scoring-outdoor.html12.98 is worth 398 points, which is 5:08.6 by the IAAF tables (5:15 was from WAVA tables). So despite being a world class (one of the top 10 ever) milers, Farah is a middle-school level sprinter, despite his use of sprints regularly in training. It doesn't "prove" Bolt's mile capability, but it supports the abundant evidence on this thread that being world class in one discipline doesn't guarantee competence in another, even if it is somewhat related.If that is still "incoherent", then you might want to lay off the sauce.

Rojo's Wejo wrote:

"I also climbed as hard as Florine"

Please get over yourself. How's life being a professional rock climber?

You probably have a higher vertical leap than bolt too right?

I said that I climbed as hard as Florine (5.13d/14a). That's like saying I have as fast a 400 PR as Wilson Kipsang. Florine is/was a decent climber in terms of difficulty, but genius at speed climbing. As is the case with Bolt, being genius at one aspect of a sport doesn't transfer directly to another. rojo's analogy of different positions on a football team are applicable.

And yes I make my living as a rock climbing professional (instructor/writer/developer). It doesn't pay all that much, but it is the only life I would choose.

Rojo's Wejo wrote:

But Mo's 12.98 is because of the start. The technical aspect of starting isn't a factor in the mile so you should go with Mo's flying 100m time of 11.3 of you want a far comparison.

It takes him 1.7 seconds to get out of the blocks?

Or are you saying we should only use flying starts. What is Bolt's flying start 100m? Were those tables developed for flying starts?

I love it when I'm challenged with sneering condescension. What a set up!

Let's see if I can bring some coherence to this debate, and I was willing to allow a certain amount of idiocy until you accused me of hitting the bottle, but now ... the internet war is ON!

You are pointing out that a world class miler could only manage a 12.98 100, which is no where near a world class time and would be beaten by middle schoolers.

We are pointing out that a world class 200 guy should be able to run a 5:00 mile, which is no where near a world class time and would be beaten by middle schoolers.

So, you are saying the same thing we're saying, but then you say we're wrong by putting forth conversions that are completely wrong for this caliber of athlete and add nothing of value to the discussion.

The source of incoherence is not the sauce, it's your assumption that a 5:00 mile is any more "competent" than a 12.98 100, which your own useless conversions say are roughly equivalent! You friggin crack head!