From Facebook:
Scott as crossed the Kennebec River at approx 8:16AM (this morning)
That is mile 2024.7 153.6 to go for Scott.
He needs to reach Mount Katahdin, in Maine, by 5:15 p.m. on Sunday, July 12. That means he has 3 days and 8 hours left for a new record. That are more than 46 miles per day. It will be a tight race to Mt. Katahdin.
I think he'll do the last 75-100 straight through.
Alan
runningart2004 wrote:
I think he'll do the last 75-100 straight through.
Alan
It would seem natural at this point for him to have a few "eff it, I'll just power through without stopping" thoughts, but I'm wondering if his body will even let him do that. Jurek's tank is one of the biggest in the history of running, so I'm confident he can dig down even deeper to find something that brings him through by Sunday. But man, he's going to have to dig down deep.
I'm not buying the tortoise versus hare thing either. No way he performed so poorly compared to a hiker without the ultra background.
Is it possible was the previous record yellow blazed?
Was there a GPS track posted?
Previous record needs more scrutiny, but wait a second here. The previous record was in the opposite direction?!
How do you compare? Has it ever occurred to anyone that one direction is WAY harder? Net gain elevation versus Net decent?
Why didn't he go for the easier way?
Guy needs a few cheeseburgers, he'd burn through the finish if he practiced eating like a human/omnivore
yellow blazer question wrote:
Previous record needs more scrutiny, but wait a second here. The previous record was in the opposite direction?!
How do you compare? Has it ever occurred to anyone that one direction is WAY harder? Net gain elevation versus Net decent?
Why didn't he go for the easier way?
Come to think of it, there are no pictures of her midway through the course! And by her own admission her last time on the same distance took about 5 months. That's a suspicious improvement over her history.
yellow blazer question wrote:
Previous record needs more scrutiny, but wait a second here. The previous record was in the opposite direction?!
How do you compare? Has it ever occurred to anyone that one direction is WAY harder? Net gain elevation versus Net decent?
Why didn't he go for the easier way?
Most thru hikers go South>North so that they can walk with the seasons, and frankly finishing on Katahdin is pretty damn cool. But most folks trying for a record go North>South primarily because they can hit the Mahoosucs and the White Mountains (generally considered the hardest parts of the trail) while they are relatively fresh. Also, Mt Katahdin is a little bit of a wild card -- if the weather is bad, the rangers in Baxter State Park can potentially shut the mountain down. Jurek chose to go South>North because he says he wanted a "more traditional thru hiker experience." Perhaps also some measure of hubris? Personally, I think if he had it to do over, he would look for every advantage that he could find.
In any case, at 11 pm this Thursday, it looks like Jurek is closing in on Rt 15 near Monson, ME. This road crossing is significant because it represents his last paved road crossing until Baxter. He'll be entering the "100 mile wilderness." Probably, he'll stop for a rest in his van before heading into "the wilderness." (I would if I were him!)
His support going into the wilderness will be an interesting situation. There are a few dirt road crossings (nothing paved) in the wilderness, the most accessible for the support van probably being the Kokadjo-B Pond road, about 51 miles north of the Rt 15 intersection. The other roads are more for logging and hunters/fishermen to get to their camps. Wouldn't be surprised if Jurek shoots for Kokadjo-B tomorrow night, but we'll see. I think the other roads are more dicey -- suspect you'd want to contract with locals driving 4x4's to hit those intersections if that's what you really want. In any case, he'll be hiking (running?) with some support crew, so he can stop and rest as needed. Not much, if any, cell phone service, so unless they have some sort of satellite phone, Jurek won't have communication with his support van.
At any rate, good to see that he's moving steadily -- he's still in the game!
onwards wrote:
Jurek chose to go South>North because he says he wanted a "more traditional thru hiker experience." Perhaps also some measure of hubris? Personally, I think if he had it to do over, he would look for every advantage that he could find.
If I had to pick I would have naively picked the NOBO route too because I would be thinking about building up this huge cushion with the running advantage when fresh. Then if the stuff hits the fan, you can just hike it in particularly as its harder up north and you would have to hike anyway. If you imagine he went SOBO but fell apart anyway because it may be just his body can't handle 50 mile days for a month. That would be even worse because now he's flamed out on the exact portion he was supposed to have an advantage.
Come to think of it, there are no pictures of her midway through the course! And by her own admission her last time on the same distance took about 5 months. That's a suspicious improvement over her history.
Her second hike of the AT, when she broke the womans record, was 57 days, 8 hours.
autoxfil wrote:
Yes. If there was ever a tortoise and hare kinda deal... this is it.
uh, no. seems more like a tortoise and tortoise with a slightly different style kinda deal. id love to see a hare out there on the trail. think it could probably be done in 32-33 without a real superhuman effort.
hobo wrote:
If I had to pick I would have naively picked the NOBO route too because I would be thinking about building up this huge cushion with the running advantage when fresh. Then if the stuff hits the fan, you can just hike it in particularly as its harder up north and you would have to hike anyway. If you imagine he went SOBO but fell apart anyway because it may be just his body can't handle 50 mile days for a month. That would be even worse because now he's flamed out on the exact portion he was supposed to have an advantage.
I would like to hear Jurek say more about his choices, not only about the direction he chose to hike, but also how he structured his support, how he selected distances each day. For instance, Pharr Davis would more routinely camp out, hiking to a point on the trail where her husband (her main support) would have set up a tent -- while Jurek would more typically stop at a road intersection with the trail, so he could sleep in the van. Obviously, if you're willing to camp, you have more flexibility -- you can wring a couple more miles out of a day, or maybe put yourself in a more favorable position for the next day, etc.
But Jurek is still moving. When he started apparently around 6 am this Friday morning, he had about 117 more miles to Katahdin's summit, and had, what, 59 hours to do it...
perspective wrote:
autoxfil wrote:Yes. If there was ever a tortoise and hare kinda deal... this is it.
uh, no. seems more like a tortoise and tortoise with a slightly different style kinda deal. id love to see a hare out there on the trail. think it could probably be done in 32-33 without a real superhuman effort.
Insane. Who? Kilian might be able to spank it, but he's probably a Tortoise to you. You mean a world-class marathoner?
onwards wrote:
hobo wrote:If I had to pick I would have naively picked the NOBO route too because I would be thinking about building up this huge cushion with the running advantage when fresh. Then if the stuff hits the fan, you can just hike it in particularly as its harder up north and you would have to hike anyway. If you imagine he went SOBO but fell apart anyway because it may be just his body can't handle 50 mile days for a month. That would be even worse because now he's flamed out on the exact portion he was supposed to have an advantage.
I would like to hear Jurek say more about his choices, not only about the direction he chose to hike, but also how he structured his support, how he selected distances each day. For instance, Pharr Davis would more routinely camp out, hiking to a point on the trail where her husband (her main support) would have set up a tent -- while Jurek would more typically stop at a road intersection with the trail, so he could sleep in the van. Obviously, if you're willing to camp, you have more flexibility -- you can wring a couple more miles out of a day, or maybe put yourself in a more favorable position for the next day, etc.
.
I don't think AT racing has evolved enough to have stabilized into immutable strategies. I do seem recall SJ stating in some article or another that he chose to go south to north because he could get himeslf into trial shape as he went. If you aren't in trial shape to begin, you're just asking for the injuries he suffered.
This really is tortoise and hare, because if he misses the record, his hubris will be his undoing.
perspective wrote:
uh, no. seems more like a tortoise and tortoise with a slightly different style kinda deal. id love to see a hare out there on the trail. think it could probably be done in 32-33 without a real superhuman effort.
32 to 33 days without a superhuman effort. Okay. Right. Go ahead and try this.
Let me guess...you are a 2:10 marathoner who does 150 mpw.
To do 32 to 33 days on the AT, you'd have to do almost 70 miles per day. You do realize that is 350 miles per week over technical trails and major elevation?
When you ran that 2:10 marathon on the roads with 300 total feet of ascent, it wont mean shit on the AT
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
perspective wrote:uh, no. seems more like a tortoise and tortoise with a slightly different style kinda deal. id love to see a hare out there on the trail. think it could probably be done in 32-33 without a real superhuman effort.
32 to 33 days without a superhuman effort. Okay. Right. Go ahead and try this.
Let me guess...you are a 2:10 marathoner who does 150 mpw.
To do 32 to 33 days on the AT, you'd have to do almost 70 miles per day. You do realize that is 350 miles per week over technical trails and major elevation?
When you ran that 2:10 marathon on the roads with 300 total feet of ascent, it wont mean shit on the AT
^This
The trails on the east coast are a pile of rocks with blazes on the trees to keep you from getting lost. Tough going. I've covered 100 miles in AR in 18 hrs. Massanutten in VA took me 30 hrs. I had massive blisters under callus. Every step was bad.
perspective wrote:
uh, no. seems more like a tortoise and tortoise with a slightly different style kinda deal. id love to see a hare out there on the trail. think it could probably be done in 32-33 without a real superhuman effort.
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
32 to 33 days without a superhuman effort. Okay. Right. Go ahead and try this.
Let me guess...you are a 2:10 marathoner who does 150 mpw.
To do 32 to 33 days on the AT, you'd have to do almost 70 miles per day. You do realize that is 490 miles per week over technical trails and major elevation?
When you ran that 2:10 marathon on the roads with 300 total feet of ascent, it wont mean shit on the AT
Fixed my own post.
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
perspective wrote:uh, no. seems more like a tortoise and tortoise with a slightly different style kinda deal. id love to see a hare out there on the trail. think it could probably be done in 32-33 without a real superhuman effort.
MeHereYouWhere?! wrote:
32 to 33 days without a superhuman effort. Okay. Right. Go ahead and try this.
Let me guess...you are a 2:10 marathoner who does 150 mpw.
To do 32 to 33 days on the AT, you'd have to do almost 70 miles per day. You do realize that is 490 miles per week over technical trails and major elevation?
When you ran that 2:10 marathon on the roads with 300 total feet of ascent, it wont mean shit on the AT
Fixed my own post.
This. The guy must be trolling. I was a mid 2:20s marathoner who recorded several years over 7000 miles. I've hiked most of the AT (in sections). There is no WAY that someone could cover it in 33 days. No. Way. On the AT, you're almost always going up or going down, usually over rocks. If someone ever does it in even under 40, I''m going to demand that they be drug tested.
I found this article about Jurek interesting, and also a bit strange:
http://www.outsideonline.com/1997316/will-scott-jurek-break-appalachian-trail-record-maybe
When I was running ultras in the early 00's, he would show up with impeccable preparation, friendly as can be, and just obliterate the field. It wasn't just that he's a running monster (which he is), but he had a respect for the sport, the course, and his competitors that set him apart from pretty much everyone else. I don't know how well researched this article is, but his attitude towards the AT attempt seems at odds with my observations of Scott in the past. Did he really not recon the trail before going out there? Was his goal really just to do 50 miles a day and that's it? Even I know that you can't maintain steady-mileage days in the mountains.
There's a quote in the article that if does make the record, he'll be looking at the second hand on the way up Katahdin. That seems to be an accurate prediction at this point.