Oshier will destroy Verzbicas in the Dream Mile

tallguywillwinit wrote:

HS Observer wrote:

Too bad Keffri Neal from BC, Canada, who kicked Mudd's ass at the Brooks this February, isn't in the race also. A 1:49 800m runner who ran 3:50 for 1500m last weekend finishing in 56.2 for last 400 and 27 for last 200m.

Neal peaked early is all. And you know it. Oshier over Mudd and the rest.

Peaked too early? you should have seen the guy last weekend. He just dominated. In his 3:50, he accelerated the entire last 800m, destroying the competition. 27 last 200m to finish.

Couldn't keep your BC-pride all stuffed up on the tnfnorth boards?

Neal is good but 3:50 is like a 4:08.

Silence from the "Oshier-Orman-Mudd-Cheserek-et al." crowd. And when they do raise their voices, it will be to denigrate either Verzbicas or his performace.

Yes wasnt mudd suppose to close in 45 with a last 200m of 19.12

The 6'5 stride oshier was suppose to walk down lukas and not give him a chance

the twins destroyed him LAST YEAR and went like 12:45 in the 5000 meter this year

LV should of finished like 5th in this race

Trollmang wrote:

He hasn't lost a single 1600/mile this year, he knows how to take out races hard and despite people drafting off of him so easily (he's 6'5"!!) he still kicks their asses. He has held off amazing kickers like Gedyon on multiple occasions, doesn't need pace setters to run at his best (such as yesterday). Lukas is an exceptionally good runner as well, but I just don't think he'll beat Oshier. It's gonna be a battle of speed vs. strength; Oshier quadrupled at South Coast League finals with a 1:51 800, 4:10 1600 (cruising), 9:13 3200 (also cruising) and a low 48 second 4x4 split (this was the only race he lost, because the Dana anchor was a sprinter who has run 47 before, not to mention he was probably tired after tripling before it). What do ya'll think?

I'd just like to take a moment and laugh at this post and all the others on this nearly 150-post thread predicting that Verzbicas would be crushed by Oshier and Mudd.

If you watch the last 400 of the Dream Mile, you'll see that Oshier was almost neck and neck with Verzbicas for all of 1-2 seconds, and was promptly dropped and passed by several others. So, anybody care to explain what happened to his incredibly kick and that amazing strength that his quadrupling had granted him???

After all that earlier nonstop blabber, the silence here is quite hilarious.

Conditions were shitty and the rabbit botched the pace. Lukas gave 50% credit for sub-4:00 to Jantzen, who was a huge windbreak at a crucial point. When LV took the lead, Oshier made too sudden a reaction in the wind, and tied up like crazy.

In crap conditions, a 3:55-56 (ideal conditions) LV beat a 3:59 JO and a couple of other 3:59-4:00 guys. Great, tough race.

SimpleRunner wrote:

Silence from the "Oshier-Orman-Mudd-Cheserek-et al." crowd. And when they do raise their voices, it will be to denigrate either Verzbicas or his performace.

SimpleRunner wrote:

(6) Is Austin Mudd in this? If so, he's no less or more of a threat than Oshier. (Ditto for Orman.) With Mudd's 4:04.x mile (converted), he's still a long way from sub-4. It's one thing to run a 26-27 last 200 off what was essentially 4:09-ish mile pace until the last 200m, and it's another thing to do it off of 4:01-ish pace.

Interestingly, that's close to what Mudd actually did. I would like to see what he would have done had the race gone out a little better and he stayed closer to Lukas- wouldn't have beaten him, but could have pushed him to a faster time. And I think Mudd could run sub-4 in the right race.

People keep saying this about Mudd, but hasn't it occurred to people that he was able to kick so well because he hung back? And that he hung back because he knew he would be above sustainable pace if he didn't? I just think it's a little silly that everyone keeps acting like he could have just run the first 3 laps 3 seconds faster and boom! kicked it in for the victory with the same vigor.

come on folks wrote:

People keep saying this about Mudd, but hasn't it occurred to people that he was able to kick so well because he hung back? And that he hung back because he knew he would be above sustainable pace if he didn't? I just think it's a little silly that everyone keeps acting like he could have just run the first 3 laps 3 seconds faster and boom! kicked it in for the victory with the same vigor.

If you are referring to me, I explicitly said he would NOT have won.

Yes, his kick would have almost certainly be weaker had he finished the first 3 laps 3 seconds faster. But it isn't unreasonable to think his overall time would have been faster.

come on folks wrote:

People keep saying this about Mudd, but hasn't it occurred to people that he was able to kick so well because he hung back? And that he hung back because he knew he would be above sustainable pace if he didn't? I just think it's a little silly that everyone keeps acting like he could have just run the first 3 laps 3 seconds faster and boom! kicked it in for the victory with the same vigor.

What people are saying is that he could have run faster overall with more equal splits. For example, if Mudd had run his first 1200 3 seconds faster, maybe he would have closed in 57 instead of 55 and he would have ended up a second faster than he ran yesterday. Considering how fast he ran his last lap, I think he had more left at 1209 meters than he thought (or should have had left)

take a look at yourself wrote:

I agree with you, sort of. I hate to say it about the guy with the top time, but I don't see any way Oshier wins. If the pace is what it's supposed to be, and the winning time is sub-4 to 4:00, LV takes it. Nobody else can handled a sustained, consistent pace like that as well as him. if the winning time is 4:01 or higher, Mudd wins it. I think his kick is stronger than the others. I think several others can run as fast a last 400 as him, if that's when the move is made, but they can't close the last 200 like he does. If he's in contact he takes it.

I'd be totally fine with being proved wrong. Just having fun with predictions.

I'd say this guy is the winner of the thread.

kickin it in el azizia wrote:

SimpleRunner wrote:

Silence from the "Oshier-Orman-Mudd-Cheserek-et al." crowd. And when they do raise their voices, it will be to denigrate either Verzbicas or his performace.

Interestingly, that's close to what Mudd actually did. I would like to see what he would have done had the race gone out a little better and he stayed closer to Lukas- wouldn't have beaten him, but could have pushed him to a faster time. And I think Mudd could run sub-4 in the right race.

_______________

As someone pointed out already, Mudd didn't kick off of 4:01-ish pace. He finished in that, kicking off a slower pace. I have to say, however, that Mudd was the most impressive runner (to me) outside LV. And I suspect that if the conditions had been better -- dry track, no wind -- Mudd might well have joined LV in the H.S. sub-4:00 pantheon.

I think he has the most 1500 upside of all those out who were in the race, and it seems he's just now realizing some of his potential. Impressive race, and he ran down Geydon (sp), who's no slouch when it comes to kicks.

Keffri Neal peaked too early? 1:49.34 for 800m on July 1st. Not a bad HS time.

Neal peaked early is all. And you know it. .