Let's not forget to add in Steve Sherer's recent 3:36.81 and Andy McClary's 3:36.91.
Let's not forget to add in Steve Sherer's recent 3:36.81 and Andy McClary's 3:36.91.
I've seen a lot of posts speculating that Webb has good strength now and just needs to work on his speed to sharpen up. After watching his races, it looks like that is the exact opposite of what is going on. In the 800 race yesterday, he looked like he was going backwards at the end. It wasn't that everyone in front started speeding up, it was that he couldn't hold the pace as much as they could. Also, if strength were a primary focus this past winter, then why did he bomb at the Carlsbad 5000? If anything, for a runner with his kind of range and demonstrated track record in the distance events, he normally would have thrived there. By his own account, he just died at the 2.5 mile point. Something just isn't right with him this year.
Georgie Icebag wrote:
Ceelo,
You miss the point. Webb doesn't just have bad races, he has bad weeks, and months, and seasons....he trains himself to a frazzle, messes with kooky diets (stomach problems, eat a hamberger once in a while), and doesn't have a coach, willing or able to put him in his place. Tough love...
No, you miss the point. I was remarking on the skewed logic of counting Webb out at the trials when he is still faster than Manzano, who apparently has a better chance of qualifying than Webb now, in a bad race.
And please show me an entire season that has been bad for Alan Webb when he hasn't had an injury. Or, please show me an entire season where Alan Webb ran slowly and had bad races all the time. In 2004, he won the Olympic Trials. In 2005, he won the US Championships and made it to the finals in Helsinki. He also set the AR in the 2 mile. In 2006, he ran 27:34 for 10k. In 2007, he won US Championships again. He set the AR in the mile and moved up to third on the 1500 list for Americans with his 3:30.54. He, then, made it to the finals in Osaka. Sounds like his career has been a total flop. And that's only his professional career. I don't need to mention the records he broke in high school, his 11th place finish as a Freshman at NCAA cross, and Big Ten championship as a frosh prior to his 4th place finish at NCAA as a frosh in the 1500. You're right, he's horrible. He should be much faster and have accomplished much more as a 25 year old.
There is so little time between now and the trials. What magical training is he going to do to improve? I've always felt that most of his problems have been mental. He is far, far too emotional.
As Bob Kennedy says, emotion should only come into play during the end of the race. Everything in between has to be controlled aggression. Bob goes on to give a very good example of how he lost his second NCAA 1500m title due to incorrect race strategy. He assumed he could walk in and take the title with no real hard effort, which was a mistake.
I wonder what Webb will do with himself if he fails to qualify. Will it be time to start talking about others? Lomong, Manzano,etcc?
Webbed Feet wrote:
I've seen a lot of posts speculating that Webb has good strength now and just needs to work on his speed to sharpen up. After watching his races, it looks like that is the exact opposite of what is going on. In the 800 race yesterday, he looked like he was going backwards at the end. It wasn't that everyone in front started speeding up, it was that he couldn't hold the pace as much as they could. Also, if strength were a primary focus this past winter, then why did he bomb at the Carlsbad 5000? If anything, for a runner with his kind of range and demonstrated track record in the distance events, he normally would have thrived there. By his own account, he just died at the 2.5 mile point. Something just isn't right with him this year.
Strength was his focus. He just did too much of it.
Yeah I think Webb does focus way too much on strength and way too little on aerobic development. I think that Alan should have experimented with some other longer distances on the track, it seems that ever since he ran Pre in \'01 he has been set on the mile and nothing else. He shows promise at other distances, remember he beat Ritz in his 10k debut breaking 27:40 at the Cardinal Invite a couple years back. That\'s a pretty good debut, maybe his body is always breaking down since he is constantly overstressing his anaerobic and muscular systems by doing plyometrics, circuit training, intervals, and mile races. I\'m not sure exactly how many miles a week he runs but I think that he runs in the 70\'s. May be he should experiment with higher mileage and more aerobic endurance type stuff that Lydiard advocated. Both Snell and JOhn Walker both used super long runs in training, although Walker\'s training differed slightly since he was trained by Arch Jelley. I hope Alan breaks out of his rut, actually I wouldn\'t call it a rut since he has only run 2 races unlike last year where he was spent by the time he reached the final in Osaka. Maybe Alan has been very wise by starting late in the season and we are just impatient. Still though, I think he should test with longer stuff.
Kung Fu hustle wrote:
In my estimation he will be in 3:50 shape, with a kick.
At that level 3:50 in the 1500 sucks, with or without a kick.
As for Alan's accomplishments, if he did nothing else but that AR 3:46 mile time trial in Brussels I would say he fulfilled much of his potential. The problem is not his lack of talent, but lack of consistency, in that his performances show a variability almost unparalleled by another elite athlete.
I watched the 800m race and can draw no meaningful conclusions without knowing his training and how much he slacked off for the race.
Peter Snell and Jim Ryun were setting the standards back in the mid-1960's for championship milers, as both were capable of 1:44 two-lappers. 40 years later this is almost a necessity and Alan would need to race this fast and actually build off of it to have any real chance in the Olympics, assuming he places top three in the trials. Otherwise, a guy like Ramzi or the young (19?) Kenyan should be the favorites, as they can really turn it over for 800m.
I would have been curious to see Johnny Gray focus on the 1500m. He came out and ran with us (the ASU 800m runners) one day when he considered transferring his training base to Tempe. I can tell you he is really quite lanky (thin, but strong) and has an unusually long inseam for his body size. His stride was so long, even for a 4-mile run, that we felt like we were taking 3 strides to 2 for Gray.
I just can't imagine Webb not making the team. I think we're all overthinking it. He ran the 1:43 800 and AR mile LESS than a year ago for Christ's sake and he's ostensibly focused on NOT peaking too EARLY this year. He ran 3:55 with no "pop," which suggests to me that he's still training through. This guy is a sub-3:33/sub-3:50 guy with just a few races under his belt and a mild taper in even a bad year, and only one other guy in the field can match that. It will be Lagat, Webb, and then God only knows for the final spot. I hope it's Wheating with that steep improvement curve and obviously very good short-middle distance speed, but he's not a grizzled veteran yet. Manzano sure ran an unbelievable last 150 meters after leading from the front into the wind at NCAAs, so he'd probably be my guy in the trifecta. Should be very fun to watch this year.
The point I have been trying to make is that 1. Webb is just as fast as Manzano's best race in his first race of the seaason, and it was a "bad" first race by the letsrun.com posters' standards, and 2. Webb, though he sometimes has bad races, always runs extremely well and improves every season. The last time Webb lost a US Championship was a long time ago. So there is absolutely no reason to count him out. Lagat is incredible, Lamong has shown promise, but neither have won the past 3 US Championships. However, Lagat will probably win gold at the Olympics, because he is amazing.
This is what I saw from the 800 race. Webb went out smart the pace was out fast especially for a 1500 runner he moved after 300 but when he hit 300 left which should be where a 1500 runner starts to take over he wasn't able to move like he should. It is my belief that a 1500 runner in an 800 should be able to dominate from the 300 out mark. Especially in a race that goes out too fast. Going down the stretch he did not show great speed but again he is against 800 guys so it is hard to say. I think Webb will struggle because it will most likely be a sit and kick race. Lagat is in for sure the way I see it. Manzano has some wheels which he showed yesterday and I do believe could outkick Webb. That leaves only one spot and with guys like Lomong and Wheating who both have wheels I do fear for Webb. The good thing is that there are heats and He should be able to handle that a little better than others I would think.
sxedx wrote:
he is not an american like solinsky, tegenkamp, george bush, alan webb, or myself.
I think he is. Why are you and the rest so quick to look for and dwell on differences instead of embracing commonality? I think people who don't care to write adequately are an embarrassment to the US.
What worries me if Webb does not make the Olympic team only Lagat will be in the finals. Manzano was so bad in last years World Championships that I looks unlikely he will make an Olympic final.
Somebody said that Webb maybe the most inconsistent US elite miler ever. That may be true if you consider that he ran a 3:46 mile last year, and now cannot even beat 3:36+ guys. Right now he is running like the last generation of top US 1500 meter runners like Stember and Lunn, who were fast, but not fast enough to make the Olympic finals.
Webbs up and down career is so without logic that it must have supernatural origins.
Just FYI wrote:
sxedx wrote:he is not an american like solinsky, tegenkamp, george bush, alan webb, or myself.
I think he is. Why are you and the rest so quick to look for and dwell on differences instead of embracing commonality? I think people who don't care to write adequately are an embarrassment to the US.
I agree, Just FYI. Lagat is more American than myself. He probably loves this country more than any posters on this message board, because he has had to live the true American Dream and understands the great opportunity and blessing it is to live here. When I saw Lagat grab the flag after his victories in Osaka, I could not think of one American person I would rather run a victory lap holding our flag.
Most of you are runners, right?
How many of you have raced a mile/1500 that is about 10sec off your pr, and 800 that is about 5sec off your pr, when not going crazy (ie trying to run near your pr), but feeling kind of tired and sluggish, just a couple of weeks before a much more stellar performance.
I can't count on two hands the number of times this happened to me. Can you?
I'm not panicked about Webb.
ceelo wrote:The last time Webb lost a US Championship was a long time ago.
He lost the US 8km championships in Central Park this year.
I'd be surprised if Webb doesn't make the Olympics, but he's not exactly carrying through on his potential to win a medal. Here's the competition he can expect in the final at Beijing:
Bernard Lagat - 3:35
Augustine Choge - 3:31 this year
Daniel Komen - 3:31 this year
Shedrack Korir - 3:31 this year, 3:50 win at Prefontaine
Abdalaati Iguider - 3:32 this year
Andrew Baddeley - 3:49 win at Oslo this year
Haron Keitany - 3:49 at Oslo
Deresse Mekonnen - also a 3:49 at Oslo along with an indoor title
Asbel Kiprop was 4th at Osaka but has been very quiet this year.
Here's the LetsRun.com video of Webb's race:
I know this thread is about Webb, but can we just pause for a minute and acknowledge star snack's marvelous contribution to the Lagat discussion? I mean his first post, starting with "Is Sanya Richards American..."
Can we just institute a policy where we copy and paste that post into any thread that calls Lagat a non-American? Maybe then this nonsense can be put behind us.
Seriously, whenever the letsrun peanut gallery thinks they are the ones who determine who is and isn't American, we can just push control-v and the discussion is over.
Thank you star snack.
PatMcP wrote:
4) Kenya’s running federation is a disaster to all but the Federation hierarchy (kind of reminds one of Pre and the AAU), so any Kenyan that can get out if that mess, well, more power to Lagat. A number of Kenyans are now running for various countries around the Middle East, changing their names. However, the side issue of a runner raised in this country and succeeding in the middle or long distances is not addressed by Lagat’s new citizenship. While nationalism fades, at least to some extent, there remains the destruction of America’s middle distance prowess in the 1970’s and 1980’s. I have always put Ted Banks at the heart of this, although other “coaches” quickly followed suit. Using a loophole in NCAA regs, Ted, who I heard his job was possibly in jeopardy at one time, brought over world class athletes in distances, crushing the American kids trying to compete. Kind of like putting a high school football star up against the pros. At some point, there will be little left to the kid. I remember some of my teammates, who were good distance runners, going to compete in an early season triangular meet my freshman year (I did not qualify for the traveling team for that meet). They got lapped in a 5K and were never the same again. Yes, WSU’s Rono set a world record, something he could not have done at 19. My first race was against the World Cup 800m gold medalist from 1977, who blew by me at the 200m mark (I guess a 25 opening 200 was boring him) and cruised a 1:46.5 in April. I predicted it would take 10-15 years after the closing of the loophole before US high schools were assaulting the 4 minute mile again, and that was about right. Therefore, I still pull for an American to beat Lagat as a sign the “system” is restored. I will do the same in the 5K and 10K. I am not so focused on the Marathon, as I remember watching Frank Shorter win it all.
Most of the rest of your post isn't bad, but you're ALL WET here. Guys like Bowerman and Elliott were bringing in highly talented foreigners way before Banks was ever on the scene. It was those athletes that helped to push US runners to new levels. Runners like Prefontaine, Shorter (who also raced plenty on the track), Moore, Salazar, McChesney, Liquori, Scott, Virgin, Porter, etc. What would high school runners care about what was happening on the collegiate level in that era? Runners who are "never the same again" after getting lapped in a 5000 weren't destined to be very good anyway. The problem in the late 80s and throughout the 90s was the void of quality coaching going on at the high school and college levels. That is what has changed to bring about a resurgence that would see so many high schoolers threatening the 4:00 mile mark, though the college level still needs to catch up with what's been going on in the high schools.
At least give Lagat, Richards, and Lomong credit for getting their US citizenship and competing for a country where they have received the bulk of their training/coaching. How many runners from Jamaica (i.e. Veronica Campbell), Africa, Canada, etc. have attended US colleges and continue to train here with US coaches but compete for their native countries? That to me is the ultimate in hypocrisy.