who do you guys think would get the at large with what we have seen so far, not including CA
Haven't looked at the results too closely yet from the South, but I would say:
Southwest is looking strong for both #3 and 4 getting in.
Midwest #3 is looking strong to me. Even if Meylan's speed ratings aren't favorable for their #5.
Midwest #4, Northwest #3, maybe South #3 and maybe Northeast #3 are probably the main contenders for the last spot. Midwest #4 might have had the best regional performance, but also might have the weakest full resume case.
I don't think New York or the Heartland are getting at-larges, and I'd be pretty surprised if the Southeast does at this point as well. I'm guessing the California #3 team will fit in alongside the Midwest #4, Northwest #3, South #3 and Northeast #3 group. However, due to the nature of the California regional selection it wouldn't be that surprising if the #3 team looks to have had a stronger performance at CA State than others in that group (and maybe even Noblesville as well) did at their regional races.
I don't have a horse
However, I can try to predict how it will go.
1 Southwest, 1 Southwest,
After that it's the same toss up as last year. Nobody's regional 3rd team is technically better or has accomplished more than other teams. This is between - South, Northwest, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, etc.
What they did last year was choose the two regions that performed best the previous year. They will probably do the same this year. Who performed best last year? Northeast is set because they got 5th and 8th last year. Also the fact that this was the same team that got 8th helps.
After that, I think it will go to South over Midwest. Despite, having similar nxn results last year, Jesuit LA traveled and the other team did not.
If I were to choose based on who I think is the best, I would choose Northwest. However, that is not going to be the pick. Their 3rd team never traveled. Their region didn't do much better than the California region last year. I don't see it happening. Same goes for California.
Jesuit averaged slower today than they did on the same course 10 weeks ago. If you're looking for trending teams, probably not a great sign.
Did they have a state meet the week before the first meet at College Station? Obviously the two extra days of rest this year helped the Louisiana teams, but it's still not ideal when you compare them to Texas teams that had three weeks to get ready.
The LA state race was a formality for Jesuit, that can't be a reason. They scored like 20 something points and the next team barely broke 100. The fact is they didn't improve in those 10 weeks while EVERY runner from SLC improved which ran both Nike South and NXR. Jesuit's #5 had a 163 speed rating. That's worse than the following 3rd and 4th place teams from other regions: Mead, Crater, McAllie, Trinity, Coronado, and American Fork. Also Noblesville did way better up front in their top 3.
The four spots so far, unless CA has an amazing state race, should be Mead, Crater, Coronado, and American Fork. They are the ones running the best right now. Who cares who you beat 2 and a half months ago?
Based on Dye stat rankings, I think they will try to take the top 10 ranked teams who didn't auto qualify. In which case- 1 from south east, 1 from South west and 2 from midwest. James Robinson from south east was ranked the highest in their region heading into NXR (#10) which is not something to ignore. Although American Fork has historically done well and gone to NXN, what matters now is the team they are this year, not the past necessarily. Therefore I don't think they will get a callback. NIWOT had a close race with 2nd place by 1 point and are ranked well too. The midwest gets complicated and had 5 ranked teams in their region. The 1st place was not unexpected, Pioneer is a force. Concordia was unranked going in, but they deserve to be ranked after their more recent races. Carmel placing fourth was an absolute shock considering their #8 Dye stat ranking, but being ranked #8 still shows they've been strong all season. They beat Concordia Lutheran by 29 points 2 weeks before NXR. It looks like their top 3 didn't have their typical day and that's what made a difference. All these teams under preformed but still ran well enough throughout the season to be ranked high. Teams ranked top 10 throughout the year, mean they had a strong season and a nationally competitive team. The committee has to consider that.
Based on Dye stat rankings, I think they will try to take the top 10 ranked teams who didn't auto qualify. In which case- 1 from south east, 1 from South west and 2 from midwest. James Robinson from south east was ranked the highest in their region heading into NXR (#10) which is not something to ignore. Although American Fork has historically done well and gone to NXN, what matters now is the team they are this year, not the past necessarily. Therefore I don't think they will get a callback. NIWOT had a close race with 2nd place by 1 point and are ranked well too. The midwest gets complicated and had 5 ranked teams in their region. The 1st place was not unexpected, Pioneer is a force. Concordia was unranked going in, but they deserve to be ranked after their more recent races. Carmel placing fourth was an absolute shock considering their #8 Dye stat ranking, but being ranked #8 still shows they've been strong all season. They beat Concordia Lutheran by 29 points 2 weeks before NXR. It looks like their top 3 didn't have their typical day and that's what made a difference. All these teams under preformed but still ran well enough throughout the season to be ranked high. Teams ranked top 10 throughout the year, mean they had a strong season and a nationally competitive team. The committee has to consider that.
Padua Academy was 3rd at NXR SE, and James Robinson was 4th. So if Padua Academy doesn’t make it, James Robinson isn’t allowed to get in
California boys teams went 11, 15, 17 at NXN last year (and Menlo and Glendora graduated a lot of guys) which makes me wonder if California really deserves an at large on the boys side
These results pretty much killed all the hype in the California thread. Nobody is talking about the state meet and nobody cares anymore. Crazy how 1 bad year can do that for a region that had so much hype in the past.
If you don't count the two threads totally about 1400 posts then nobody is talking about the State meet.
So do all of these Jesuit teams and other private schools. Should be giving more credit to teams like Noblesville who have some really talented guys out of a public school and has never been to NXN. It’s always the same schools going just because people go there for running.
Not that this is used by anyone, but if you like speed ratings: I put 26 girls teams into one race based only on NXR results (so it doesn't include IMG or California yet). I'll put them in tiers alphabetically:
Tier 1 (under 200 points): Wayzata
Teir 2 (200-249 points): Lone Peak, Union Catholic
Tier 3 (250-299 points): Ann Arbor, Carmel, Heritage, Niwot, Sioux Falls Christian
Tier 4 (300-349 points): American Fork, Flower Mound, Sehome, Webb of Knoxville
Tier 5 (350-399 points): Bridgeland, Champlain, Fort Wayne, Pella, Penn Charter, Pudua, Rocky Mountain, Romeo, Shenendehowa
Tier 6 (400 points or more): Bethlehem, Boise, Brentwood, Katy, James Robinson
Niwot feels like a slam dunk for an at-large invitation. American Fork while 4th in SW has a great argument based on speed ratings. Then it is very close. Romeo, IL based on speed ratings would actually be ahead of Fort Wayne, but Fort Wayne got 3rd in MW ahead of Romeo. And Pella and Penn Charter actually also in front of Fort Wayne (but within same tier). Just data points, lots of other things to consider of course.
So as we know Niwot is obviously getting an at-large bid, being #3 as only a tier 2.
Then Carmel is in tier 2/very good, but got 4th place at NXR Midwest because they just had a bad day. So Fort Wayne (3rd place in Midwest) would have to get an at-large first for Carmel to get an at-large, but Fort Wayne is way back, and considered worse than other teams in that tier, like Penn Charter and Pella.
American Fork is also obviously getting a bid, again as we already know. That is 2 teams getting a bid from the Southwest region.
Now we are in tier 5, where Penn Charter is competing against Fort Wayne, Pella, and Padua. Was said Fort Wayne is worse than Penn Charter. Was said Pella was more points behind the #1 (and lower ranked nationally) team in their region than Penn Charter was behind #1 team UC in our Northeast region. Not sure if this is a factor though.
James W Robinson is another team that I guess had a bad NXR performance. They were better earlier on. For them to get in, it would have to be a Padua/JWR cascade double. But I don't think they'll take TWO teams from the Southeast...because the Southeast is definitely nothing like the Southwest (the region they WILL take 2 teams from).
And then those #3 teams in tier 6, Boise and Katy, probably don’t have much of a chance because they're clearly worse. But like said all of this is just based off of the speed ratings. It does not take into account any important wins that non-qualifying teams had over qualifying teams, which we know is an important factor.
So overall, maybe... 2 at larges from the Southwest. No at larges from the Northwest, the South, or the absolute JOKE that New York teams are. Penn Charter, Pella, Padua/James W Robinson cascade double, Fort Wayne/Carmel double all competing for spots.
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