Unlike Kerr, Jakob didn't medal in his last 1500 Olympic final.
Unlike Kerr, Jakob has TWO Olympic gold medals. something old man Kerr will never have - or do. Even after missing months of training Jakob was still strong enough to run 3:28 leading the whole way, showing great potential to run a bit faster. Kerr has obviously peaked and run his career PR or close to it, not much left there. None of it matters because in the next two years Laros and Kessler will begin to take over the event.
Regarding the semi-final in Budapest (3:34.98) I decided to check it out again.
The splits from IAAF says: That his final 800, 400m, 300m, 200m, and 100m were covered in:
1:48.10, 50.63, 38.34, 25.44, 12.47. Jakob ran really fast but not 50.63-lap fast
I hand timed it a couple of times (kind of hard as the camera zooms in when they hit the bell, really annoying) The first time I timed it at full speed, the second time at half-speed (and the divided the time with 2), and the third time I timed the video at 0.25x speed. (The slower the video, the smaller the margin of error). Here are the results
1st time, full videospeed: Final 800m: 1:48.7, final 400m: 52.10, final 300m: 38.60, final 200m: 25.36, final 100m: 12.68
2nd time, 0.5x videospeed: final 400m: 52.15, final 300m: 38.74, final 200m: 25.45, final 100m: 12.69
3rd time, 0.25x vidoespeed: final 400m: 52.145, final 300m: 38.59 final 200m: 25.48, final 100m: 12.61
So while the splits are a bit too fast, it was still a really solid close by Jakob. A sudden burst of speed from him, which I can't remember him doing in other races (at least in recent years) But most of his races are him going sub-3:31, so that makes the finishing dynamics different.
(There was also a couple of other factors:
1. Jakob didn't really accelerate before the 1250m mark
2. He ran the last bend in lane 2
3. He showboated/pumped the crowd up with 100m remaining)
One of my all-time finished by Jakob (albeit not 1500m) is his 3000m from Eugene 2023
7:23.63 (3rd fastest in history at the time) Final 400m: 54.0, final 200m: 25.8, final 100m: 12.8
(I feel this one isn't talked about enough. It was also done less than 24 hours afer his 3:43.73 mile)
True. Too bad he wasn’t in this condition in Paris, he might been able to finish the 1500 a bit more quickly instead of rigging up after some fast prelims.
There are some other errors from the Budapest splits that I've noticed
It says Kerr's final lap in the final was 52.77, when in reality it was 53.4ish. Jakob's final lap was 53.76, and Kerr did NOT gain a full second on Jakob in the last lap (He was right behind him at 1100m. Kerr did 3:29.38, Jakob did 3:29.65)
It says Laros' (3:31.25) final lap was 52.96. I got him at around 55.2
I don't know the reason behind these errors, but it is a bit annoying.
Yes, and in the Semis as the poster had. The truth is we don’t have a ton of data on last 100s to prove Jakob would be in big trouble in a 3:31+ race. On the circuit, he’s been fine the few times that happened and since he wouldn’t be leading I’m not sure why he’d do worse. Nor has it been a problem in heats/semis. Has anyone besides Hocker even gone under 12.6 in the last 100 of a 1500 (caveat race under 3:40 so no Farken)? I really don’t think so. I don’t think a really slow British champs in 2022 even had impressive splits. 2023 USAs with Yared didn’t.
When Jakob did his 3:27.14 in Silesia, his final 100m was covered in 13.3
His 3:30.37 in Brussels had a final 100m of 12.9
His semi-final in Budapest (3:34.98) had a final 100m of 12.47
And in Lausanne last year, it seemed like Jakob had no problem outkicking both Hocker and Kessler by a comfortable margin. Pretty close between the three of them with 150m remaining, and he still beat Hocker with 2.02s and Kessler with 2.64s.
Jakob is not the slowpoke that so many makes him out to be.
Regarding the semi-final in Budapest (3:34.98) I decided to check it out again.
The splits from IAAF says: That his final 800, 400m, 300m, 200m, and 100m were covered in:
1:48.10, 50.63, 38.34, 25.44, 12.47. Jakob ran really fast but not 50.63-lap fast
I hand timed it a couple of times (kind of hard as the camera zooms in when they hit the bell, really annoying) The first time I timed it at full speed, the second time at half-speed (and the divided the time with 2), and the third time I timed the video at 0.25x speed. (The slower the video, the smaller the margin of error). Here are the results
1st time, full videospeed: Final 800m: 1:48.7, final 400m: 52.10, final 300m: 38.60, final 200m: 25.36, final 100m: 12.68
2nd time, 0.5x videospeed: final 400m: 52.15, final 300m: 38.74, final 200m: 25.45, final 100m: 12.69
3rd time, 0.25x vidoespeed: final 400m: 52.145, final 300m: 38.59 final 200m: 25.48, final 100m: 12.61
So while the splits are a bit too fast, it was still a really solid close by Jakob. A sudden burst of speed from him, which I can't remember him doing in other races (at least in recent years) But most of his races are him going sub-3:31, so that makes the finishing dynamics different.
(There was also a couple of other factors:
1. Jakob didn't really accelerate before the 1250m mark
2. He ran the last bend in lane 2
3. He showboated/pumped the crowd up with 100m remaining)
this is very good work. I didn't try to get Jakob's split because it goes off screen when he's at the line, but you can pinpoint multiple places where he was compared to Kerr in the last 30 meters, and he seems to be trailing by around .9 seconds, and Kerr was right at 53 seconds for the final lap.
The best I could figure for the huge mixup with Jakob's split was that they flipped Jakob, who was in 9th at the bell, with the 13th place man. I think this actually happened somehow, but even if you look at the computer time for who they had listed in 9th at the bell, it still gives a bit too fast of a final lap, if you attribute it Jakob. something more like 51.6-51.7.
Unlike Kerr, Jakob didn't medal in his last 1500 Olympic final.
Unlike Kerr, Jakob has TWO Olympic gold medals. something old man Kerr will never have - or do. Even after missing months of training Jakob was still strong enough to run 3:28 leading the whole way, showing great potential to run a bit faster. Kerr has obviously peaked and run his career PR or close to it, not much left there. None of it matters because in the next two years Laros and Kessler will begin to take over the event.
Some things will never change; Kerr's Olympic silver medal and Ingebrigtsen's 4th in the same final.
He absolutely does not believe he can win the 8 man race.
When you truly believe you can kick, going to the lead is kryptonite *unless* it’s going to the lead to slow the pace down.
Jakob can kick in the purest sense - he can accelerate at the end of the race.
Jakob cannot kick in the sense we are talking about -the ability win a championship because the best kick.
another person who doesn't understand odds or logic.
Strange. I’ve made a lot of money off odds and logic. I didn’t dispute the odds that a two man race are better, I disputed you saying you believe Jakob believes he can win an 8-man race. You are giving emotional responses, not logical ones. Nothing about Jakob’s actions shows he believes he can win the 1500m with a large group at the bell.
You know when Jakob does believe he can win the 8-man race? The 5k.
If Jakob truly believed he could win the 8-man race he would race the 1500m like he races the 5000m. It’s quite curious that you don’t see him trying to make it a two man race in the 5000 isn’t it?
Seems you are the one struggling with logic.
It’s unfathomable to me that Jakob fans are trying to talk about how good his kick is when we’ve seen him get outkicked in 100% of his last 4 tries at a championship 1500m.
The video records we have do not match y’all’s personal feelings.
another person who doesn't understand odds or logic.
Strange. I’ve made a lot of money off odds and logic. I didn’t dispute the odds that a two man race are better, I disputed you saying you believe Jakob believes he can win an 8-man race. You are giving emotional responses, not logical ones. Nothing about Jakob’s actions shows he believes he can win the 1500m with a large group at the bell.
You know when Jakob does believe he can win the 8-man race? The 5k.
If Jakob truly believed he could win the 8-man race he would race the 1500m like he races the 5000m. It’s quite curious that you don’t see him trying to make it a two man race in the 5000 isn’t it?
Seems you are the one struggling with logic.
It’s unfathomable to me that Jakob fans are trying to talk about how good his kick is when we’ve seen him get outkicked in 100% of his last 4 tries at a championship 1500m.
The video records we have do not match y’all’s personal feelings.
another person who doesn't understand odds or logic.
Strange. I’ve made a lot of money off odds and logic. I didn’t dispute the odds that a two man race are better, I disputed you saying you believe Jakob believes he can win an 8-man race. You are giving emotional responses, not logical ones. Nothing about Jakob’s actions shows he believes he can win the 1500m with a large group at the bell.
You know when Jakob does believe he can win the 8-man race? The 5k.
If Jakob truly believed he could win the 8-man race he would race the 1500m like he races the 5000m. It’s quite curious that you don’t see him trying to make it a two man race in the 5000 isn’t it?
Seems you are the one struggling with logic.
It’s unfathomable to me that Jakob fans are trying to talk about how good his kick is when we’ve seen him get outkicked in 100% of his last 4 tries at a championship 1500m.
The video records we have do not match y’all’s personal feelings.
why would he try the 8 man race when his chances are not as good as they are in a 2 man or 4 man race? that's not logical. the amount of bad things that can happen when you allow that many people to stay in a ball go beyond just winning and losing. it's the same reason he very often stays at the back of the pack for 50-200 meters. it's just safer. again, playing the odds.
the 5000 is not the same race as the 1500. In the 1500, EVERYBODY is a kicker. Even Narve, who professes to be the slowest man in the field, sometimes has the fastest last lap of the field in a world championship race.
Unlike Kerr, Jakob has TWO Olympic gold medals. something old man Kerr will never have - or do. Even after missing months of training Jakob was still strong enough to run 3:28 leading the whole way, showing great potential to run a bit faster. Kerr has obviously peaked and run his career PR or close to it, not much left there. None of it matters because in the next two years Laros and Kessler will begin to take over the event.
Some things will never change; Kerr's Olympic silver medal and Ingebrigtsen's 4th in the same final.
These things change with regularity following retesting.
Strange. I’ve made a lot of money off odds and logic. I didn’t dispute the odds that a two man race are better, I disputed you saying you believe Jakob believes he can win an 8-man race. You are giving emotional responses, not logical ones. Nothing about Jakob’s actions shows he believes he can win the 1500m with a large group at the bell.
You know when Jakob does believe he can win the 8-man race? The 5k.
If Jakob truly believed he could win the 8-man race he would race the 1500m like he races the 5000m. It’s quite curious that you don’t see him trying to make it a two man race in the 5000 isn’t it?
Seems you are the one struggling with logic.
It’s unfathomable to me that Jakob fans are trying to talk about how good his kick is when we’ve seen him get outkicked in 100% of his last 4 tries at a championship 1500m.
The video records we have do not match y’all’s personal feelings.
why would he try the 8 man race when his chances are not as good as they are in a 2 man or 4 man race? that's not logical. the amount of bad things that can happen when you allow that many people to stay in a ball go beyond just winning and losing. it's the same reason he very often stays at the back of the pack for 50-200 meters. it's just safer. again, playing the odds.
the 5000 is not the same race as the 1500. In the 1500, EVERYBODY is a kicker. Even Narve, who professes to be the slowest man in the field, sometimes has the fastest last lap of the field in a world championship race.
Then why doesn’t he give himself those same odds in the 5K?
lol. it's a different race. has anybody ever gone gun to tape in a WC 5000?
Jakob did lead the last 1100 of the 2022 5000. that's about as similar as you're gonna get to what he attempts in the 1500.
Bekele tried to go gun to tape in that famous 2003 race, starting off running 60s-61s from the front, but as we all know he was unable to keep it going and slowed down. Granted he was doubling back from that insane 10,000 with the sub 13 second half, but still I doubt he was capable of running 61s all the way, even fresh. Who knows if El G would have been dropped, but he looked pretty comfortable handling that pace. I don't think there's been anyone in history capable of "Rudisha'ing" the 5000 vs a bunch of 12:4xx guys in a championship final, including Jakob.
This post was edited 27 seconds after it was posted.
lol. it's a different race. has anybody ever gone gun to tape in a WC 5000?
Jakob did lead the last 1100 of the 2022 5000. that's about as similar as you're gonna get to what he attempts in the 1500.
Bekele tried to go gun to tape in that famous 2003 race, starting off running 60s-61s from the front, but as we all know he was unable to keep it going and slowed down. Granted he was doubling back from that insane 10,000 with the sub 13 second half, but still I doubt he was capable of running 61s all the way, even fresh. Who knows if El G would have been dropped, but he looked pretty comfortable handling that pace. I don't think there's been anyone in history capable of "Rudisha'ing" the 5000 vs a bunch of 12:4xx guys in a championship final, including Jakob.
Kuriri did the last 3000m in 1993. Nguni took the lead about 1k in in 1988. In 2008 Bekele did the last 2400 or so.
Of course those are the winners. To compare with Jacob we need the dude that leads the first 3.5k and then gets dropped when the racing starts…
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