It was a nice little period in here while you were away.
Well, I missed him. And you found other posters to call dense when he was away -you clearly don’t like other opinions than your own, do you?
You also have to learn how to read: “His 3k time hasn’t improved his 5k time” is factually correct -only an improved 5k time improves the 5k time.. Yeah, you could say that it’s a too narrowly and too literally way of reading a sentence, but I side with Armstronglivs that one has to state some facts here, when some of you present your speculations as sacred facts…
Personally I think Jakob’s 3k WR is an indicator of him also having bettered his 5000m strength. And I’m pretty sure Arms thinks the same -he has in a post stated that he can see Jakob run close to 12.40 (an improvement of some 8 sec). Have you forgotten that, Lars?
But an improvement from Jakob doesn’t mean that he automatically or easily can run a WR, or always win the 5000m champs, as some of you seems to think. And it’s symptomatic that some of you instantly gets erratic when posters try to be nuanced around Jakob’s 5000m prospects…
I can see the following situation: Gebrhiwet (or some other stellar African) runs 12.33, whereas Jakob only can do 12.40 or maybe 12.38. -Such a scenario will of course mean no WR for Jakob, and possibly also a WC/DL/OG loss.
I’m a Jakob fan, so I hope he manages to find a solution so the scenario above doesn’t materialises as a definite thing. But judging pros and cons when it comes to indications (Jakob’s many 5000m wins where the other medalists have “bad” pb’s, up against his long races where he seems to be worse the longer the distance) I for now would guess that a 5000m WR is out of reach, and that he also risks losing against guys like Gebrhiwet (in peak shape/healthy)…
If the first scenario you can think of that would mean Jakob loses is that Gebrhiwet runs a 3 second PB and breaks the WR in a non paced championship race, then that speaks pretty highly of Jakobs chances to keep dominating the 5k.
So you are saying that you think J.I is as close to breaking the world record as he was when he set is 5k pr?
I am saying he is no closer to the wr than he was 3 years ago - despite him being what some posters describe as a 5k runner. That isn't an argument that he may never run any faster than he has; it simply shows that the 5k record remains out of reach for him until he demonstrates otherwise.
First. Are you saying the two time 5k world champion and current olympic 5k champ is not a 5k runner?
Second, no closer to the WR? If I run a 20 minute 5k, then 3 months later run a 9 minute 3k, are you arguing that I am no closer to a 19 minute 5k? This does not make any sense.
I am not saying that I think he will do the wr, I just find this logic puzzling.
This post was edited 1 minute after it was posted.
So you are saying that you think J.I is as close to breaking the world record as he was when he set is 5k pr?
I am saying he is no closer to the wr than he was 3 years ago - despite him being what some posters describe as a 5k runner. That isn't an argument that he may never run any faster than he has; it simply shows that the 5k record remains out of reach for him until he demonstrates otherwise.
No, the fact that his PB is from 2021 doesn't show that the record is out of reach.
What he has done in the last three seasons is a very strong indication that he can run significantly faster than 12:48.45.
- won the last three global finals at the distance against a bunch of 12:35 - 12:45 runners
- destroyed the WRs at both 3000m and 2 Miles
- has run 12:48.45 at age 20 when he didn't had the fitness level he has now
- has concentrated on fast times so far in his career only in the shorter events from 1500m to 2 Miles
- has shown good endurance on several occasions like the recent European cross
I would estimate his chances to run sub 12:35.36 during his career at around 40% and to get the WR at around 30% (others might break it before).
No improvement in 12:48 in 3 years. Winning a few tactical races doesn't get him any nearer Cheptegei's wr. He doesn't have the endurance of a true 5k/10k runner so it is unlikely he will break the 5k record.
Jakob is just not built for long endurance. He is all about power and speed just like my baby boy Josh Kerr ❤️. If we don’t see Kerr winning the 10k or marathon final why should we decide otherwise for Jakob?
False equivalency here. Doesn’t means Jakob winning a bunch of tactical 5k races shows any prowess for 12:34 or faster. Look how he threw the Hm in denmark? Even my baby boy Josh Kerr ran a 61 on a negligibly downhill San Diego course.
I am saying he is no closer to the wr than he was 3 years ago - despite him being what some posters describe as a 5k runner. That isn't an argument that he may never run any faster than he has; it simply shows that the 5k record remains out of reach for him until he demonstrates otherwise.
First. Are you saying the two time 5k world champion and current olympic 5k champ is not a 5k runner?
Second, no closer to the WR? If I run a 20 minute 5k, then 3 months later run a 9 minute 3k, are you arguing that I am no closer to a 19 minute 5k? This does not make any sense.
I am not saying that I think he will do the wr, I just find this logic puzzling.
I don’t think that’s the intention and meaning of Armstrongliv. But you do have a very reasonable counter I must admit. Jakob can be a good 5k tactical runner due to superior closing speed yet not be a 5k wr holder like Mo farah. Mo like Jakob was pretty average in the Hm and Fm as well and most likely with the benefit of PED which is even more telling of his horrendous failed experiment into those distances. Not sure what the deal is with these drugs. Makes you fast and powerful at shorter distances but when it comes to longer marathon distances become emasculated and enervated? What the hell?
On the converse my baby boy Josh Kerr is clean as a whistler as he can traverse both the 800m and Hm with a single aerobic engine. That kind of engine has to be clean because it shows natural graded aerobic gear shifts that is consistent with true human effort with no artificial intervention.
His kick, that lacks in the 1500, will thoroughly dominate 10,000 meter runners.
He isn't a 10000m runner. He doesn't have that kind of endurance.
Yes Jakob is neither a 5k nor 10k nor Hm nor Fm future record holder. He can be good in these distances which I define as top 10-20, but records are not for his body type. I don’t think he beats the miniature Sawe 2:02:05. Bekele is considered slight and small too and the true marathon record holder before kipchoge who I don’t trust is clean.
He never will. He is not and never will be good enough. This is the big leagues and Jakob cannot beat the big boys.
His kick, that lacks in the 1500, will thoroughly dominate 10,000 meter runners.
What for kick? We are talking about world records. My baby boy Josh Kerr can also kick ass in the 10000m and 5000m to great extent. Look how he kicked that dirty Fisher at millrose this year? Shame he is not going to kick him again in 2025 millrose.
I agree. Jakob will not be a world class marathon runner, maybe not a halfmarathon runner either. His body type (to big and heavy) accumulate to high core temperature when running at 2.50/km over long distances without rest. His threshold intervalls is world class, but it is different physiological and psyhological demands to run intervalls (ex; 7x2000m) and continous.
But as a Jakob fan it will please me if he proves me wrong.
That isn't my "logic". It is simply to point out that despite his records and fast times in other events Ingebrigtsen has made no improvement in his 5k time in 3 years and remains a country mile short of the wr. Unlike McSweyn in the 800m (who has run faster than 2min in a mile race), he has also competed seriously in the 5k. But nothing he has run in several years of competing over the longer event suggests he can take a wr that is 13 seconds faster than his best. He isn't naturally a 5k/10k runner so his chances are slim.
Why care so much about his 10k time if we are discussing his 5k time? Isnt being two times world champion and the olympic champion a good indication that he is a natural 5k runner?
He is a limited 5k runner rather than a "natural" 5k runner. His times show that. Cheptegei and Bekele show better what a natural 5k runner is. They were considerably faster over the distance. In any case, the discussion isnt limited to his 5k potential but what he might achieve as a distance runner. I don't believe he will ever be amongst the best 10k runners.
For all your "knowledge" he remains 13 seconds off the world record and gets no closer to it. Nothing argued here means he will break it.
So you are saying that you think J.I is as close to breaking the world record as he was when he set is 5k pr?
No, I'm not saying that. Read it again. I'm saying that notwithstanding all the discussion about his talent he hasn't improved his time in 3 years - he may - but nothing argued here shows that if he does he will break 12:35. That he will take the wr remains speculation without convincing evidence to support it.
I am saying he is no closer to the wr than he was 3 years ago - despite him being what some posters describe as a 5k runner. That isn't an argument that he may never run any faster than he has; it simply shows that the 5k record remains out of reach for him until he demonstrates otherwise.
First. Are you saying the two time 5k world champion and current olympic 5k champ is not a 5k runner?
Second, no closer to the WR? If I run a 20 minute 5k, then 3 months later run a 9 minute 3k, are you arguing that I am no closer to a 19 minute 5k? This does not make any sense.
I am not saying that I think he will do the wr, I just find this logic puzzling.
1. He is a 5k runner but not the best the event has seen, or even the best in this era, which would require he beat the wr.
2. He is no closer to taking the 5k record until he shows it with a faster time over the distance. Faster times over shorter distances don't necessarily translate to faster times over a longer distance. Athletes have their best distances and can't run all distances equally well. I think his best distances are 2k-2 mile. To be in contention for the 5k wr I would suggest he has to show he is already close to it. He isn't. As I have said previously, unless he runs in the region of 12:40 I don't think he has a shot at the world mark.
I am saying he is no closer to the wr than he was 3 years ago - despite him being what some posters describe as a 5k runner. That isn't an argument that he may never run any faster than he has; it simply shows that the 5k record remains out of reach for him until he demonstrates otherwise.
No, the fact that his PB is from 2021 doesn't show that the record is out of reach.
What he has done in the last three seasons is a very strong indication that he can run significantly faster than 12:48.45.
Will he? For sure we can't know.
Running "significantly faster than 12:48" isn't the issue; being able to beat 12:35 is. He may run faster than 12:48 but it doesn't mean he will break the wr. So far I don't see it is a realistic prospect.
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