1500 men detailed predictions

Trollminator wrote:

Finance Bro wrote:

Assuming nothing unusual happens, like a fall or a DQ, then yes it would convince me.

That's good. And I will be fully ready to admit Jakob became a smarter racer. I already admit he's faster.

Another reason I give an edge to Kerr he's world champ and hasn't lost to Jakob since but Jakob is considered the guy to beat and has more pressure on him to perform. This is an unforced error on Jakob's part, letting himself play into Kerr's mind fvckery. He should have taken the L like a man last year and quietly schemed his revenge. Instead, he remained a pompous little $hit and pretended the "next guys" don't matter. He's going to step on that start line tomorrow with a mountain of pressure weighing him down (assuming he even sleeps well and isn't fake sick), while Kerr will have him right where he wants him.

Trollminator wrote:

Finance Bro wrote:

Assuming nothing unusual happens, like a fall or a DQ, then yes it would convince me.

That's good. And I will be fully ready to admit Jakob became a smarter racer. I already admit he's faster.

Another reason I give an edge to Kerr he's world champ and hasn't lost to Jakob since but Jakob is considered the guy to beat and has more pressure on him to perform. This is an unforced error on Jakob's part, letting himself play into Kerr's mind fvckery. He should have taken the L like a man last year and quietly schemed his revenge. Instead, he remained a pompous little $hit and pretended the "next guys" don't matter. He's going to step on that start line tomorrow with a mountain of pressure weighing him down (assuming he even sleeps well and isn't fake sick), while Kerr will have him right where he wants him.

Bruns wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

That's good. And I will be fully ready to admit Jakob became a smarter racer. I already admit he's faster.

Another reason I give an edge to Kerr he's world champ and hasn't lost to Jakob since but Jakob is considered the guy to beat and has more pressure on him to perform. This is an unforced error on Jakob's part, letting himself play into Kerr's mind fvckery. He should have taken the L like a man last year and quietly schemed his revenge. Instead, he remained a pompous little $hit and pretended the "next guys" don't matter. He's going to step on that start line tomorrow with a mountain of pressure weighing him down (assuming he even sleeps well and isn't fake sick), while Kerr will have him right where he wants him.

FWIW. I'm actually OK with Kerr beating Jakob tomorrow. Why? Because I'm more interested in his future 3k/5k/10k success. Which will be lights out based upon his training AND his shorter event success. You should be too.

Trollminator wrote:

I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.

1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.

2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.

3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.

4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.

I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.

anactualdoctor wrote:

Sledge_Hammer wrote:

He's correct though. Jakob has the worst 800m PR in the entire field. And being a time-trialler all years round also takes away his racing savvy at slower races where positioning is extremely important. The slower the race is, the less chance there is for Jakob.

But at faster races like 3:27-29, he would be heading into Kerr's territory. So his best bet is to make it a 3:26 race, which is impossible without wavelight and pacers. Though making it a fast would guarantee him a medal, he's not gonna win with the presence of Kerr.

That's why Kerr is the heavy favourite, it's just a simple fact.

delusions on delusions.

Kerr hasn't broken 3:29 yet everyone gives him the credit of "oh he COULD run that based on his mile" or whatever. But yet you base Jakob's speed on an 800m he ran years ago? lol, just stupid.

Kerr beat Jacob once when he sick and once in his first race back from injury - both by insanely small margins. Kerr could win -sure, I wouldn't be shocked if Jakob loses a third year in a row - but to detract from the reigning Olympic champions skillset like this while giving Kerr so much unwarranted credit is insane.

The simple fact is Jakob is faster - pure and simple. He has been faster for like 85% of all races against Kerr and I think tomorrow he will be faster again. Kerr can't win with pacemakers in a time trial - his only hope is to win tomorrow with Jakob pacing him. For eff sake, he got outkicked by Nuguse of all people last time he tried to do what Jakob does. You people have no credibility.

mictlantecuhtli wrote:

Trollminator wrote:

I think the margin of error is going to be very tight and a difference of 2 seconds can leave one of the big guns out of a medal. Here's how I see the results depending on the winner's time.

1. Sub 3:27 - Jakob is a heavy favorite as the fastest in the field, but this will require a pacer. Potato Tim could serve the purpose, but I highly doubt he will take the risk because unlike Tokyo the field has several fast runners who could leave him out of a medal. No one else will be pacing anywhere near 3:27. If it ends that fast, I predict Jakob-Kerr-Goose.

2. 3:27 - 3:28 - I think the only way we see this time run is with Jakob pushing from early on, and the only runner in shape to hang onto him and snipe him is Kerr. Unless Kerr has to surge and fight for positioning behind Jakob, I favor him heavily in this range. I know Jakob can handle the fast time, but I just don't see him having another gear at the end if he's doing all the work. In this time range, I predict it'll be Kerr-Jakob-Goose. 3rd place is a bit of a toss up here, with potential for Tim, Kessler and Hocker if they can run very clean races.

3. 3:29 - 3:32 - Assuming Jakob takes the lead after 400 and squeezes the field through the end, I think it plays into Hocker's hands as no one can match his kick off a manageable pace. He can drop a 53 but will need to be within striking range. Kerr will be glued to the front and secures a medal. I would boldly predict Hocker-Kerr-Jakob, with Kerr just sniping Jakob at the line. Depending on how clean he runs, I think Kessler may very close to bronze.

4. 3:33 or slower - the only way this happens is if by some miracle Jakob decides to roll the dice. This would be total carnage. We would see surges, elbows, runners getting boxed in. It would be a toss up, but here I give Hocker the edge if he can stay out of trouble. Tim would be a contender as well but he doesn't run cleanly. It's a toss up, but would say Hocker-Kerr-Kessler.

I see #2 as the most likely scenario. Jakob will go to the front, but he won't commit early enough to be able to run so fast as to take the kick out of everybody. I think he is overly confident about his fitness and speed and just doesn't see any other way to run this race. I do think he is afraid to go WR pace from the gun. It's just too risky. Plus Jakob has been planning for exactly this scenario since last summer and I think it'll go as planned. Kerr is just too laser focused and confident in championship racing. He knows this is the formula to win. IMO I think Jakob is mentally preparing for a silver even if he's pumping himself up to go hard.

Assuming no falls here is my prediction in a 3:27 race:

1. Jakob

2. Kerr

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3. Hocker

4. Tim

5. Yared

6. Komen

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7. Laros

8. Gourley

9. Nordas

10. Kessler

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11. Nilessen

12. Arese

3/4/5/6 and 7/8/9/10 feel like tossups. I could see them going in pretty much any order, although I more certain about 3/4/5/6.

Laros is a real dark horse for me - I feel like he hasn't really shown his hand yet this season and a finish in the top 5 feels like a real possibility. I see him off the medal stand this year, but considering how he ran in the finals last year you never know.

Overall, Hocker feels like he has the slight edge for bronze right now but only slightly. I think Yared, Komen, and Tim could all be right there.

Excited to see what Kessler can do. I think he's always done very well in fast races, much better than in tactical races but an Olympic final is another story.

Prediction: Someone, probably Yared takes a hard first lap. Jakob takes the second lap and keeps it rolling from there. Kerr stays on Jakob's shoulder and makes a move coming off the curve into the home straight but comes up short.