Tuohy is fine as long as she remembers the lessons from the two indoor finals defeats in 2022. Both times she was content to linger well back in the pack, facing lots of mental stress and annoyances due to all the traffic issues that arise via the strategy. She moved up during the late going but couldn't pull off the kick finish.
The anti Tuohy crowd may have enjoyed those results but might not have sensed that once Tuohy adapted her strategy the margin for error would soar. She's not going to sit there boxed on the rail in 5th to 10th position. It's going to be mostly trouble free with few decisions to make, from at or near the front.
Best in class win from that position.
Ahhhh... All that getting boxed in was really exaggerated... If you watch those races she caught up with both of the leaders in the 3K and the 5K on the back stretch of the last lap but wasn't strong enough to pass... Wayment ran a perfect race and really benefited from drafting on the inside the whole race... Roe wasn't doubling and took advantage of it with a nice early move and held them off... Sure if things played out slightly different she might have been able to win one of those races but getting 16 points and being a top scorer for distance running was pretty good at the time...
Anyway I'm still waiting for someone to show some evidence that she's up against any great kickers... I think she can easily hold off any these runners for the last 400 if she has the rail position...
What you ask is an impossible question for anyone to answer to your satisfaction as you seem convinced that she can run the last 400 faster than she ever has. Based on what? Because she has run slightly faster for 1500? "Physics"!! Actual race results to date shows several others have run the last 400 in a 1500 faster than she has thus far. I guess I could say since I think I can run 42 for 400 noone can beat me. If I lined up in a race maybe I find out otherwise!
What you ask is an impossible question for anyone to answer to your satisfaction as you seem convinced that she can run the last 400 faster than she ever has. Based on what? Because she has run slightly faster for 1500? "Physics"!! Actual race results to date shows several others have run the last 400 in a 1500 faster than she has thus far. I guess I could say since I think I can run 42 for 400 noone can beat me. If I lined up in a race maybe I find out otherwise!
I don't know that she has run that last 400 faster than 63.6 which was a year ago. That was also in a race which was 3:03.3 at 1100 m. To my knowledge noone in this field has ever been that fast at 1100. If this race is that fast (or faster) at 1100 I think Tuohy can match or beat anybody in the field. But if it is slower I think there are other possibilities. The fast west region races were about 3:05 at 1100.
I don't know that she has run that last 400 faster than 63.6 which was a year ago. That was also in a race which was 3:03.3 at 1100 m. To my knowledge noone in this field has ever been that fast at 1100. If this race is that fast (or faster) at 1100 I think Tuohy can match or beat anybody in the field. But if it is slower I think there are other possibilities. The fast west region races were about 3:05 at 1100.
Ahhhh... All that getting boxed in was really exaggerated... If you watch those races she caught up with both of the leaders in the 3K and the 5K on the back stretch of the last lap but wasn't strong enough to pass... Wayment ran a perfect race and really benefited from drafting on the inside the whole race... Roe wasn't doubling and took advantage of it with a nice early move and held them off... Sure if things played out slightly different she might have been able to win one of those races but getting 16 points and being a top scorer for distance running was pretty good at the time...
Anyway I'm still waiting for someone to show some evidence that she's up against any great kickers... I think she can easily hold off any these runners for the last 400 if she has the rail position...
What you ask is an impossible question for anyone to answer to your satisfaction as you seem convinced that she can run the last 400 faster than she ever has. Based on what? Because she has run slightly faster for 1500? "Physics"!! Actual race results to date shows several others have run the last 400 in a 1500 faster than she has thus far. I guess I could say since I think I can run 42 for 400 noone can beat me. If I lined up in a race maybe I find out otherwise!
You're not taking into account that she hasn't run that many 1500s... So we have very little data...
But we do know that she's 10 seconds faster this year over 5K then last year...
It would be logical to presume that she's gotten a little faster since last year...
If you can close in 63.2 off of faster pace... It's pretty logical to assume that you could close off 61.4 in a slower pace... Taking into account that you're also probably overall faster than last year...
Anyway it's not rocket science that if you are potentially 4 seconds faster than anyone else that you should be also able to close faster given a fast enough pace...
Like I said everyone said Appleton was a better kicker than her but she just outkicked her easily... And she outkicked every other runner in her two preliminaries... And finally all those other racers were having slightly faster closes off of significantly slower paces...
She goes out and jogs three laps with a thing mu... And then they race the final app obviously a thing will kill her... But if they run three hard laps and she will close faster than athing...
Like I said everyone said Appleton was a better kicker than her but she just outkicked her easily... And she outkicked every other runner in her two preliminaries... And finally all those other racers were having slightly faster closes off of significantly slower paces...
Appleton did not look good on that final lap...hopefully she did not peak too soon. Conversely the OR ladies and O'Sullivan looked very good. Tuohy may have been holding her cards top herself so far but I think starting next Thursday things will have to be a bit faster.
She goes out and jogs three laps with a thing mu... And then they race the final app obviously a thing will kill her... But if they run three hard laps and she will close faster than athing...
This nails it. Now play the same game w/ '2023 NCAA field' instead of Mu. How hard do those 3 hard laps have to be, in order for Touhy to beat this field? Consensus here seems to be 3:03 or quicker she wins, 3:04 or slower the odds move to 50/50 v. the field
Appleton did not look good on that final lap...hopefully she did not peak too soon. Conversely the OR ladies and O'Sullivan looked very good. Tuohy may have been holding her cards top herself so far but I think starting next Thursday things will have to be a bit faster.
Agree... we will see how much faster when the heat sheets come out. If she, O Sullivan and the Oregon women are in the same race that will be very interesting.
Appleton is a little up and down. She almost didn't make the finals at ACC and then came back to win. I am still impressed by her 2:06 close there, granted off a slow pace.
This nails it. Now play the same game w/ '2023 NCAA field' instead of Mu. How hard do those 3 hard laps have to be, in order for Touhy to beat this field? Consensus here seems to be 3:03 or quicker she wins, 3:04 or slower the odds move to 50/50 v. the field
100% agree. 3:00 to 3:03 should be good to put her competition into a position that they can’t close in their 61’s or 62’s.
I said previously (probably on a different thread), that she needs to be AT LEAST 2 seconds ahead of the field, (preferably 4 seconds) with one lap to go to have enough security to win the 1500m and not have to worry about a last lap sprint (which will help save a bit of energy for the 5000m very soon thereafter).
I'll go the other way... As long as they hit the bell lap in 310 or under she could outsprint anyone in this field assuming she has the rail and is in the lead... Prob 60s...
52.5, 70, 70, 60 for a 412.5 1500... Roughly speaking...
Hassan could go 70, 70, 70, 55
Mu 70, 70, 70, 66...
Based on what Tuohy said in an interview about her running a flat-out 57 400m and thinking she’s not capable of anything faster, closing a race in 60 is a pretty big ask.
With that being said; however, based on watching recent races, I have to admit that I agree with you, I’m thinking she’s capable of it now.
Yeah maybe 72s then a 60... Or 60.5... My main point is that it's not clear she has to set a super fast pace to win... I think if she can grab the lead with like 500 m to go even off a moderate 412 or 4:13 pace... She should be fine...
I'll go the other way... As long as they hit the bell lap in 310 or under she could outsprint anyone in this field assuming she has the rail and is in the lead... Prob 60s...
I am trying to think of someone who can close a 1500 with a final 400 within 2 seconds of their all out 400 speed. Maybe the very elite runners?
has any CIS female collegian crossed a finish line in front of tuohy since the outdoor 5000 where she jogged on Valby's shoulder for a bit then just eased away with a lap and a half or so to go?? She crushes Valby while Valby crushes the entire rest of the field - again and again. It seems to me that the 5 is a lead-pipe cinch for tuohy regardless of her level of effort in the 1.5, and really. 4 minutes of hard running is just a small portion of a workout for a D1 distance runner. I would be surprised if they aren't cooking up a spectacular effort for the 1500 - depending on conditions ,maybe getting under 4? the jenny record?? with the knowledge that she can pace/kick the 5000 to an "easy" win no matter what.
has any CIS female collegian crossed a finish line in front of tuohy since the outdoor 5000 where she jogged on Valby's shoulder for a bit then just eased away with a lap and a half or so to go?? She crushes Valby while Valby crushes the entire rest of the field - again and again. It seems to me that the 5 is a lead-pipe cinch for tuohy regardless of her level of effort in the 1.5, and really. 4 minutes of hard running is just a small portion of a workout for a D1 distance runner. I would be surprised if they aren't cooking up a spectacular effort for the 1500 - depending on conditions ,maybe getting under 4? the jenny record?? with the knowledge that she can pace/kick the 5000 to an "easy" win no matter what.
sub 4:00 is pretty fast but the championship record is "only" 4:05.98 (Sinclaire Johnson) which is #2 all time (in season).
I'll go the other way... As long as they hit the bell lap in 310 or under she could outsprint anyone in this field assuming she has the rail and is in the lead... Prob 60s...
I am trying to think of someone who can close a 1500 with a final 400 within 2 seconds of their all out 400 speed. Maybe the very elite runners?
Running start!!! huge difference!!! Probably worth 3 seconds...maybe even 4... Especially for someone who doesn't train as a sprinter... she can close in 60 when she's going full speed at the bell! She can only run a 57 out of blocks because her start is weak...
I am trying to think of someone who can close a 1500 with a final 400 within 2 seconds of their all out 400 speed. Maybe the very elite runners?
Running start!!! huge difference!!! Probably worth 3 seconds...maybe even 4... Especially for someone who doesn't train as a sprinter... she can close in 60 when she's going full speed at the bell! She can only run a 57 out of blocks because her start is weak...
You think NC State distance squad is using blocks at practice? Lol
Running start!!! huge difference!!! Probably worth 3 seconds...maybe even 4... Especially for someone who doesn't train as a sprinter... she can close in 60 when she's going full speed at the bell! She can only run a 57 out of blocks because her start is weak...
You think NC State distance squad is using blocks at practice? Lol
It's hypothetical... She probably has tried blocks with all her track time... Maybe not. But maybe... but who cares if it's standing or out of blocks... I'm not the one who doesn't know the difference between a running start and a standing or crouch start... The point is running a 60 bell lap is not the same as running a 60 from a cold standing start...