If Tuohy goes sub 4 and sub 15 outdoors, she should go pro.

Here are the facts:

1) Graduate degrees required in all cases

2) very few hire directly out of school. Most require about 10 years of proven track record in mgt. from blue chip companies with progressive fast track responsibilities.

3) at that point they’ll recruit with salaries that are 25-50% above your last year’s point.

4) average tenure in these firms is only about 18 mos. b4 you are either promoted, burn out or are fired. I did somewhat better than the average but the pressure to perform is similar to what top athletes experience. You work 6 days a week, up to 16-20 hours a day due to long travel requirements, severe and demanding conditions. After 3 years you may reach the 300-500K salary points, some few even top $1M. It’s a very steep curve with very smart people and very competitive conditions.

5) Divorce and suicide rates are very high but for obvious reasons not advertised. That’s all I’m willing to share.

Tuohy is on top of the NCAA pyramid of female distance performers. The trouble is that for here on in if she doesn’t win each and every race she’s entered she will be criticized and it won’t be so much fun anymore. Same will happen in the pro’s. Once you’ve reached the top of the pyramid every race you don’t win will be scrutinized for possible hidden injuries or some other ridiculous reason here on LRC. Let her enjoy the college game while she can so she can finish her undergraduate studies. Once she turns pro she’ll be under a whole new set of pressures. As it is she’s under new pressure to get on the World Team. She will need to analyze what race makes for the best chance to succeed. Therefore, she’s going to be expected to not only win every race but produce some very fast times and PR’s this spring. The winning time a few days ago in Europe by Muir for the 1500 was 4:03. She needs to produce similar if the 1500 will be her choice. I think it’s a reasonable target for her but she’s already suggested that a sub 15 is attainable. I think it is a good likelihood so her next race may be a 5000 to establish a good competitive time next week.

You would say Is more or is rather a 10k than a 5K, you can't omit the rather or the more, english has rules.

And the imbeciles saying she should go pro because she might get injured in ncaa are fools. She can get injured being pro or in ncaa, so she'll recover. That's not a good reason to go pro. Does NCAA allows her enough chances to get better, is she happy, is her degree important to her? whatever BeSmarter or any other stupid commentator has to say, it doesn't change a bit. Both decisions staying in NCAA or going pro, are Tuohy's decisions and neither is bad and neither is for the ignorant populace to decide.

Well said! The injury issue is a red herring. There’s no reason to believe that the same companies that help top NCAA athletes stay in school with financial contracts would summarily cut them off with an injury that routinely every athlete needs to contend with and recovers in routine ways. This is the same for NIL as well as individual contracts. The image of an athlete after an injury is essentially the same value with either contract.

The timing of when to turn pro is a multi-faceted decision, where the size of the contract is only one factor. Many of the doomsday prognosticators here seem to have very limited experience with the bigger picture of the college experience and the support infrastructure that can play a considerable part in the ability of top student athletes thrive in this environment.

The big question is: will she get a pro card?

If she signs a 10 year pro contract. She gets the $2M regardless of injury. If she gets injured today, she gets no contract. I don't know how many times it has to be said. It doesn't mean the chances are high, but it is just a fact that those things can happen. Arguing that it can't is silly. It is like arguing not to have liability insurance because there is no chance that anyone would ever slip on your sidewalk or that you would ever accidentally hit someone with your car. Insurance companies can show you the data. It doesn't mean it will happen to you and it doesn't mean that Tuohy will get injured before going pro..

Just the opposite. I ran at the highest level and coached at the highest level. It isn't just a career ending injury that can ruin future earning potential, it is stagnation. It is unlikely that her potential will ever appear higher than it does now. She is the female version of Drew Hunter if you plot progression. He took the $2M. He would get nothing today.

Your analysis is baseless. You ran and coached at the highest levels and you aren’t even a registered user? Bullsh*t.

So you don't know Drew Hunter? Pretty easy to plot his improvement and see it looks just like Tuohy's progression. Yes I ran at nationals and coached a team that competed at nationals several times. No, I wasn't a high level pro so I guess it wasn't the highest level. Register? How many college coaches post under their real name? Generic registered names don't identify you. But you are free to disclose your name since you seem to be inferring that you are doing that by posting under a registered name.

I’ll assume you’re either Ritz or Salazar.

Tuohy has had tremendous improvement over the last year. How could you possibly know whether she will continue to do so? Why not use Fisher as a comparable instead of Hunter? Hunter seems to have been plagued by injuries and has run only a few good races since HS.

You’re basing a prediction based on your experience but there’s nothing to prevent you from lying about it.

That's what I double checked - I thought I may have MBA data, but it is the ba data. Apparently Jain and Susq. haVe a strategy to hire VERY BRIGHT (only Physics, Math, Engineering grads) undergrads and train them up. The old Wall St program was 2 yrs as analyst then back to MBA, now they let u skip MBA part. They are trying to limit poaching of analysts to Hedge Funds and Venture Capital firms.

There are also big paydays floating around for CS programmers and elec engineers (chips, hardware, 3d printing) and product managers at FAANG's, but I'm not so familiar with that industry. Hedge Funds and VC firms are paying big money to MBAs and analysts w/2-3 yrs experience, but not really looking for undergrads.

JS and Citadel pay closer to $500k starting but they’re the most competitive jobs - even more than private equity. My consultant friends started around $150 but the salary nearly doubled every 3 years. Banking starts higher, closer to $180 now

Nope! Stay in school and be a college student. Clean house on the track and get sone big time NIL deals! Where does she benefit from going pro now that NIL exists? She doesn’t.

She does if she gets injured or stagnates. Not hard to understand. May not happen but those are the risks. At least acknowledge it.

This was the argument you guys were using when she got to college, lack of progression. Meanwhile w/ 2 yrs injury free training her progression is fine.

Hunter, who only had choice of college running, or money (+ college paid), correctly chose the money side. He basically stagnated as a pro.

Touhy has the new option of college running w/NIL money. If she's being undervalued to stay in school, she can insure for future earnings in case of injury.

Wrong and wrong. Hunter has run 13:17. You didn't plot his progression or you would see that is very similar to Tuohy's. It isn't an argument or reduction. It is a fact that you are afraid to look at. And wring on the 2nd point also. Hunter would get a very small NIL deal if he was starting college today. He would get almost no contract after graduation. He got $2M out of HS. Is it so hard to understand that Tuohy could sign a large 10 year contract? But she gets a nice 1 year NIL that disappears after graduation and she gets nothing then if something happens or she drops off over next year. Those things are all possible. Unless you are a psychic, you don't know what her performance will be over next year or what jer health will be.

Will Tuohy run sub 15 by the end of '24? She seems like she's peaked despite the pro announcement

She peaked last spring. Just doesn't look the same. She will never break 15. Cain peaked early. Effraimson peaked early. It happens.

People said she peaked her senior year of HS then she improved with improved racing & training circumstances. I'd bet you see another jump from her over the next 2 years as she gets Diamond League experience and experiences more altitude blocks. Whether thats enough improvement to get her onto US teams, who knows. But id be shocked if we never saw at least ~14:50 from her.