NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

The favorite to win team NXN is actually in the 2nd tier. I am not going to say which team it is. I would rather keep the hype on the down low until they eventually win.

The speed ratings weren't released yet, but if you use the speed ratings from the Shore Coaches invitational:

CBA:

1. 192-194 (that's a guess for Barrett) 2. 187 3. 182, 4. 178 5. 178

Westfield:

1. 187 2. 180 3. 180 4. 180 5. 174

CBA deserves to be in the conversation, Westfield is easily a top 10 team. Should be a good battle at NXR with Brookline, which is also a good team. Any others that can contend for that 2nd spot? Union Catholic did not race well Saturday, even if their top kid finishes.

New Jersey Group championships speed ratings

http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2023/Ratings_Nov04.htm#Jersey

195

188

183

179

179

CBA gotta be 1 after this performance, averaged 184.8

New Jersey is almost as overrated by Tully as New York. Nolan McGinn and Logan Schaffer will get absolutely demolished at NXN. Westfield and CBA may make a decent showing but they have no shot of beating AF or Herriman. Every year it's the same story. Northeast runners and teams look promising, then Southwest and Cali bring us back to reality by NXN. It sucks as a Northeasterner myself but it's the way it is. Burgess, Ross, Kipyego, Cox, all had huge promise as juniors and none delivered as seniors compared to their non-northeastern counterparts. Same thing will happen with Greivous, Brookline, Bergeron, etc.

Please don't take this as me discrediting Tullyrunners btw. I think it's the best website in running. Seriously, it's really fantastic what Bill Meylan does. It's just that there's a pattern of speed ratings being lower and lower the more recent they are and the farther they are from New York.

Here is rankings for the same meeting in 2022

Boys Merged Top Teams

1 Joe Barrett 10 Christian Brothers Academy 15:43.0 189.67 190
3 Nicholas Sullivan 12 Christian Brothers Academy 15:53.0 186.33 186
7 Jack Falkowski 11 Christian Brothers Academy 16:13.0 179.67 180
9 Lucas Ward 12 Christian Brothers Academy 16:20.0 177.33 177
11 Zach Shroba 12 Christian Brothers Academy 16:21.0 177.00 177
12 Alex Kemp 11 Christian Brothers Academy 16:28.0 174.67 175
13 Conor Clifford 11 Christian Brothers Academy 16:30.0 174.00 174

What place did this team take at NXN, because this 2023 team is a little better, but not a buncha better. Northesast speed ratings seem overrated to me.

I agree - having raced Holmdel many times, I agree these speed ratings are way overrated!

Westfield is not “easily a top 10 team.” Maybe last year but you can’t say that this year, Westfield also would lose to these teams: Vandegrift, CDA, Stevens Point, San Clemente, Great Oak.

Well maybe not straight up “lose.” Westfield is more likely to lose than win when facing these teams.

CBA 2023 is exceptional this year They are quite amazing, I don’t think this will apply to them. Westfield, Brookline, Carmel. I would say Belen Jesuit as well but they are quite good. It’s possible I have them under-ranked.

It's a waste of time to argue these things. Who's #8, who's #12, etc. There's no way of actually knowing unless they race each other. Hopefully it works out that they all do.

My top 10 rankings -

1/2/3 - American Fork/Christian Brothers/Herriman - in whatever order you like

4) Dana Hills

5) Southlake Carroll

6) Belen Jesuit

7) Niwot

(GAP)

8) CDA

9) Great Oak

10) Vandegrift

Honorable Mentions to break in top 10: San Clemente, Westfield, Stevens Point,

They took 18th last year but they had some guys sick, just like Southlake Carroll

I saw that American Fork and Herriman raced head-to-head on Saturday at "Pre-Footlocker" in Utah. It looks like both teams were each missing one of their top 5 runners. Steadman from Herriman had a much better race than he did at state. Herriman had 9 runners finish ahead of American Fork's 5th runner. Chase Pack from American Fork must have been sick or maybe was just tempo-ing, because usually he finishes higher.

It will be interesting to see how if plays out at NXR Southwest.

docs.google.com

2023 Pre-Footlocker Meet

Girls Place,First Last,Grade,School,Gender,Division,Time 1,Alayna Wardle,Herriman,F,Open,18:57 2,Molly Walton,Timpanogos,F,Open,19:09 3,Aidana Navarrete-Lamas,Timpanogos,F,Open,19:27 4,Breelyssa Leeper,Herriman,F,Open,19:36 5...

Open link

So many teams (including the northeast and Rocky last year) won’t travel outside of their region all season yet want to argue who’s better than who across the country. We can’t know until they race each other. Lots of respect for teams who traveled out of region to compete this year, including: vandergrift, who I think deserves the top 10 ranking you gave them (Woodbridge), Belen (to southern showcase and great American, although these didn’t have many out of region teams), herriman (Woodbridge and Bob firman), Southlake (Woodbridge), Jesuit Nola (southern showcase and Nike XC Town) to name a few.

Rocky doesn't travel because they can't take their entire roster. They would rather have teams come to the course they train on at least a couple of times a week.

If Northeast, New York, Midwest teams ever decide to travel to Woodbridge XC Classic, they are going to be in for a very big surprise.

Yes. It is true. The top teams in the west are actually averaging under 14:30 for a full 3 mile course in September. That is a 177 speed rating in the west. That is also equivalent averaging under 15:00 for a full 5k.

They will be stunned to find out that Woodbridge isn't much different than the Michigan State Course, Detweiller Park and Hunstville Park. It is just way more competitive.

Izban did not break 14 for 3 mile. I heard from the guys at Woodbridge high school that the course was short of a full 3 mile.

The Woodbridge guys raced the course as well. They know how it compares to Woodbridge Invitational, which is a full 3 mile course.