Let's talk Ohio HS XC

Ok, I guess I need to figure out the math behind these ratings now...

I've been wondering about them as well. I briefly looked around on the home page for an explanation of what they mean and did not see anything. They must somehow take course difficulty into account. I've looked at them and some races that are the same distance as other and that might have slower times, end up with higher ratings.

I just look at results and really don't pay much attention to these types of things.

What would be interesting would be to cross check times from the same course over a period of years. Does a 16:15 at _____ course in 2021 give you the same speed rating as a 16:15 in 2023? Or is it more of a rating compared to other runners on that particular day?

Reminds me of norm-referenced assessments in school. You score relative to your peers as opposed to relative to an objective standard.

Let us know what you uncover....

Explanation of speed ratings from Bill Meylan of TullyRunners:

Explanation from Roland Hopkins (who provides the ratings for Ohio MileSplit)

ilxcspeedratings.com

Illinois XC Speed Ratings - Information about the Site

About Me Welcome to Illinois XC Speed Ratings. My name is Roland Hopkins and I started running cross country in 8th grade at Jefferson Junior High in Woodridge, IL. I ran four years of cross country and two years of track (th...

Link:www.ilxcspeedratings.com/information-a...

Just did a quick check... not a direct analysis of Speed Ratings.

Compared the D1 varsity race results from 2022 to 2023 (course as close to the same as was possible). Average time for the 2023 race was 1:22 faster than in 2022, after correcting for the temp difference.

Primary issue with the data: several historically less capable teams didn't participate in the 2023 race while several historically stronger teams joined in...

Reran the calculation with only the teams that ran in the DI Varsity race in both 2022 and 2023. Correcting for temp, the 2023 race was ~37sec faster than the 2022 race.

Problem with the data: Seniors graduate, new runners join/emerge... the calculation reflects the yr to yr improvement of returning runners in addition to the evolving abilities of each team as seniors graduate and new guys come come on board.

Reran the calc with just the runners returning for the 2023 race from their respective 2022 teams. The average returning runner improve by ~40sec year over year.

I guess this could mean the course ran pretty close to the same in 2023 compared to 2022... but then we have to assume the ability of the population is constant year over year, despite the changing individuals.... which seems to be a key assumption in the calculation of speed ratings.

If the goal is to isolate differences in course performance... ??? not sure yet...

How my mind is working...

2023 Caden Ozbun ran 15:40.7 at Lancaster. Speed rating 169.43.

2022 Weston Day ran 15:41.0 at Lancaster. Speed rating.... ???

Assuming it'd have to be 169.4ish, right?

Or is it actually a higher speed rating, considering the course "ran faster" in 2023?

If I understand correctly, Weston ran faster relative to the field in 2022 so his 2022 Speed Rating would be higher than Ozbun's in 2023.

New D1 boys rankings...

docs.google.com

Boys Division I 2023 Cross Country Coaches' Poll

Pre-Season Poll 2023 Cross Country Coaches' Poll Division 1 Boys Date: 8/17/23 RANK,SCHOOL,POINTS,FIRST PLACE VOTES 1,Mason,238,10 2,St Xavier,221,1 3,Massillon Jackson,217,1 4,Dublin Coffman,183 5,Chardon,163 6,Centerville,1...

Link:docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1MCZI5V...

Voters once again confusing everyone. How come Kilbourne and Lancaster aren’t ranked right behind Coffman? There was a 10 point difference between the teams last Saturday. Either all 3 should be ahead of ST X and Jackson, or all 3 should be behind.

Well, this is just how the math worked out. People probably had them both ways on their ballots (assuming they're paying attention to results), and what you see is averages. It's not a perfect science...

It also seems like St. X is a bit high. Medina beat them a few weeks ago at Trinity in Louisville. It is sometimes hard to get a handle on exactly where St X stands, though, because they have a tendency not to run the full team together until the post season.

Mason, Medina, and St. X are all at Nike Town in Terre Haute this upcoming weekend so that may clarify things.

I'm curious to see how Medina does there. They have a rock solid 1-2. Probably as good as anyone's.

A very distant 3rd to those two; Medina has been on some veryyyyyy fast courses....

But Medina did beat St X at Trinity.

Did St X run their full lineup there?

St. X lead runner was not at Trinity.

Even so, I don't believe that Medina will be a "very distant 3rd" to Mason & St X as Inflationstation said that they would be.

I can't wait for MASSILLON JACKSON to shock EVERYONE on November 4th!

Where are they this weekend?