Hi all, here's some deeper analysis into the notorious 45 split, which some are trying to wave through as fine. I really think I may be at the end of the line with my research now! Great that more people are ridiculing the absurd HRs, but in the last week the thing has really unravelled with the rapid pace injection. Anyway, herewith my piece on the Jogle page. Bye for now! W
A Brimful of Ashes on the 45*
Deeper analysis into William Goodge’s supersonic 8k 45 minute split [71-79km] at Transcon, 12 May 2023.
*with apologies to Cornershop
This is the largest smoking gun so far on WG’s escapade and the biggest blunder made by him and the team.
The facts are simply these: The chance of him running a sub 6 K in the last 40kms of a day is 0.71%. I have calculated this by taking the days we know to have clean running: Day 13 [after my row with RB the day before]; Day 17 after I wrote to warn I’d report them if
they didn’t behave; and days 23-27, my five days of direct observation. The only sub 5s in 280k of running are a 5:51 for the 57th K of day 25 and then a 5:55 for the the 71st.
One of WGs supporters has said the reason he put together a sequence of 54555555 is because “one quick K triggers another”. But the 5:51 above is surrounded by a 10 9 6
9 & 7 on one side, and a 6 12 7 6 6 on the other. Pretty dreadful stuff. The other is not so much better, and incidentally this stretch of running occurred directly after he assaulted me by throwing the rock at my car and was clearly in a boiling rage, with Peter alongside
and James on the roller blades, they were clearly putting on a bit of a show.
Let’s take a look at the last five 8 k splits of those days to see what WG ran in “clean” circs:
Day 13: 57 59 55 60 65
Day 17: 67 65 74 88 79
Day 23: 57 78 64 56 79
Day 24: 70 60 59 65 82
Day 25: 63 66 67 67 70
Day 26: 58 61 53 59 64
Day 27: 62 62 70 69 73
So, 2303/35 is an average of 65.8 minutes. Now we know what we can expect WG to run 8k in during the last 40k of a day. His absolute best here was the 53. I
observed it [from a long way back out of fear for my safety] and it was pretty
good stuff, but clearly a huge deviation from the norm for him.
It almost goes without saying that since I’ve raised this issue, the last two days did not see a SINGLE K under 6. The best, in 186ks of running, is 6:18, a long way short of the
mark. And yet we’re being asked to accept the May 12, 71-79k sequence of:
5:12 4:55 5:43 5:52 5:53 5:58 5:48.
This is a level of absurd on a simply epic scale, never before seen in running of someone improving by such an enormous margin. One person has tried to point to Kostelnick [the WR holder] as getting close to this level, but the example was lots of stuff like 48-50 with a couple of 46s thrown in. Great going, but PK is coming down from a norm of 50 to a 46; while Goodge is an average 65 minute man for 8k. Coming down from 50 to 46 is one thing, but this is 65 to 45, deep into a day, for no reason… with no human pulse, and no
tracker, and no comment from the team.
There are a myriad of other questions: was WG accompanied for the 45? Is
there footage? All footage we ever see is 10-12 minute miling. Can we see the
other person’s Strava? Was he advised to do it by Balenger? Did he just feel
amazing and decide to absolutely smash it up in the dying embers of the
day? Why be so provocative and easily invite a breakdown, just to save 15 minutes?
What possible reason could there be to run like that?
This to me now all but completes my research into this matter. If anyone can show me, in running history an example of a runner who reduced their recognized pace by some 30-35% over an 8k sequence,I’ll be glad to hear of it. But truth is I won’t, because none exist.
And people who say, “ooohh you never know, maybe it’s his supplements, or he was feeling really good, or he’s just a great runner,” can have their opinion, but these are people who simply don’t understand how running works, or are trolling me from the WG camp.
I know there are some who don’t think that my saying that 0.7% to the power of 8 is an acceptable way to pitch it, but consider this: That 1/140 shot is simply to break 6. He has a 5:12 and a 4:55 in there! The likelihood of those marks is stratospherically less. How many sub 5:15s do we see in multiday running at this stage in the challenge? And this is back to back, followed by six more 5s.
If we throw in the last two day’s complete blank for sub 6’s [where the crew have trodden with more care] the figure is now 1/233 and note that is simply for a sub 6 and disregards the massively higher tariff of the 5:12 and 4:55.
The likelihood is 8,686,550,888,000,000,000 to 1.
Or 8.6 quintillion to 1. [Being generous].
Adieu:
I have thought about this a lot, and along with all the other daft stuff, like 10% clean heart rates since 2019 at four different events; Balenger having identical HR patterns at his Transcon; no tracker; never fatiguing; and negative splitting all their events; and much, much more, I am content to call an end to my research on this matter.
If there are those that want to believe all that Balenger and Goodge have produced this past 4 years and 12,500km of running, that’s fine, but personally, in the words of Dragon’s Den, I’m out.
WVLC 15v23 1630hrs
