NXN 2023 Way too early preview: Dawn of a new Era

Oh I forgot to include Clay Shively for winning the big race in Roy Griak

So my top 5 in the nation are

1) Daniel Simmons

2) Drew Griffith

3) Anthony Fast Horse

4) Clay Shively

5) Evan Noonan

every year I always think “this guy, girl, or team” is over or underrated. My state is under ranked that state is over ranked etc. I always get proven wrong come the nxn and nxr races. over the years I have come to think that speed rankings are more reliable than you think they are and dyestat and milesplit rankings are less reliable and my biased judgement was even less reliable than milesplit rankings lmao

At Griak, Dowling Catholic didn’t have a 5th, but the state meet showed that they have one now.

But they aren’t as good at Stevens Point though.

Dowling Catholic speed ratings: 179, 175, 170, 170, 169

Stevens Point speed ratings: 190, 178, 177, 174, 172

You mean one of the fastest juniors in the nation? Or one of the fastest runners in the nation next year?

Lots of fast juniors in Minnesota, and the Heartland region as a whole

drop your boldest nxn prediction right now!

SW boys teams put 3 in the top 5. CBA and a NW team get the other two spots.

Agree, but I think Belen is more likely to get a top 5 than any NW team. Carroll is gonna be 6th for me.

I did some more research on the colorado state course and here is what I found --->

-The Cheyenne Mountain 2021 guys ran this in 70-72 degree heat. My guess is that probably didn't taper for it, but it was still a good hard effort for them. The state title was an easy victory for them and they probably wanted to save it for nationals when they would eventually go up against Newbury Park 2021 at runninglane nationals. (obviously they would get 2nd)

-For the race Niwot was in, all the watches are saying it was 28 degrees but weather forecast says it was higher.

-This race is run in 6000 degree altitude AND the watches are saying its very close to a full 5k AND it's a hill course (didn't bother averaging the watches but I would guess it's 3.09 average)! Probably 5.5-6/10 difficulty course wise!

-Pictures show it's a hard packed dirt course

-Strava data for colorado course is here for 27 watches -

strava.com

Morning Run - Tyler B's 3.0 mi run

Tyler B ran 3.0 mi on Oct 28, 2023.

Link:www.strava.com/activities/10120075672

- For comparison sake Utah state meet is only run in 4200 ft altitude and it's completely flat! (Soccer Complex) 1/10 difficulty (But probably a bit longer maybe by .02-.03). Watches say perfect weather conditions. Pictures show running on grass but probably not as well trimmed as Woodbridge grass.

- For comparison sake California state course (the famous woodward park) is 361 ft. It has rolling hills but not nearly as much hard climb as the Colorado course so 5/10 difficulty. It is also probably slightly longer than the Colorado course. Watches for the championship race at Asics Clovis say 71 degrees.

Nathan Neil wins individually in a duel for the ages with Danny Simmons...Neil pulls away in the last 75 meters!

CA State Course (Woodward Park)
3.13, 3.13, 3.11, 3.13, 3.09, 3.13, 3.13, 3.13, 3.13, 3.08, 3.13, 3.13, 3.12, 3.13, 3.12, 3.12, 3.14,
average 3.122 - no altitude - 4.5/10 course difficulty

Utah State Course (Regional Complex)
3.12, 3.11, 3.10, 3.13, 3.14, 3.10, 3.11, 3.10, 3.04, 3.12, 3.14, 3.13, 3.11, 3.09, 3.18, 3.13, 3.10, 3.10 =
average 3.114 - 4250 feet altitude - 1/10 course difficulty

Colorado State Course (Norris Penrose Event Center)
3.08, 3.09, 3.13, 3.10, 3.08, 3.09, 3.10, 3.04, 3.12, 3.09, 3.12, 3.07, 3.07, 3.08, 3.12, 3.12, 3.05, 3.03 =
average 3.087 - 6000 feet altitude 5/10 course difficulty

6000 feet in altitude converts to about -30 seconds ncaa conservative conversion to a sea level 5k. -10 seconds for being shorter than woodward park. I would guess around 20-25 seconds slower than woodward park. just my guess, I could be completely wrong

I think 20 seconds slower for those born in altitude. We will see what they run at nxr and nxn, could be more

Runninglane 2021 - 14:37, 14:41, 14:42,14:55, 15:12, 15:27, 15:41 - 60 degrees
Colorado State 2021 - 15:31, 15:34, 15:40, 15:56, 16:13, 16:18, 16:34 - 72 degrees

-54, -51, -62, -61, -61, -51, - 53 = colorado state to runninglane nationals. + additional 3 seconds for better weather. -51, -48, -59, -58, -58, -48, -50 = average 53 second difference. Assuming Cheyenne Mountain's performance at State Championships were equivalent to their performance at nationals, Colorado State is around 53 seconds slower than Runninglane. (for all we know, Cheyenne Mountain may not have gone all out at their state meet)

Runninglane is around 25 seconds faster than Woodward Park. Woodward Park is slower than Balboa park by around 30 seconds. (this is all according to the California thread).

53-25 = 28 seconds.

If Cheyenne Mountain's 2021 performance at the Colorado State Championships was equivalent to their performance at Garmin Runninglane 2021, Woodward Park is 28 seconds faster than the Colorado State Championships.

If this is true, (that's a big IF) then Niwot's times at Woodward Park would have been (14:59, 15:17, 15:28, 15:45, 15:46). These times would have been enough for Niwot to win the Clovis Invitational over top California teams Dana Hills (14:44, 15:17, 15:30, 15:48, 16:10) and Great Oak (15:26, 15:38, 15:43, 15:43, 15:46, 15:47).

As for the all-time woodward park team list, Niwot's team time would be - 77:15. That would be the #12 fastest team time ever at Woodward Park.

prepcaltrack.com

Woodward Park All-Time Lists!

Rich Gonzalez

Link:prepcaltrack.com/2023/10/03/woodward-p...

As for Cheyenne Mountain 2021 - their times would be as follows (15:03, 15:06, 15:12, 15:28, 15:45) Their team time would be 76:34. That would be only behind 6 legendary California teams four which were in the 7 most impressive team scores ever seen at an NXN race (outside of Newbury Park 2019, Great Oak 2019 which both had their worst race of the season at nxn but still won). (Newbury Park 2021, 73:25), (Newbury Park 2022, 74:37), (Newbury Park 2019, 75:28), (Great Oak 2015, 76:10), (Arcadia 2010, 76:12), (Great Oak 2019, 76:26).

This is all assuming that Colorado State Championship really is 28 seconds slower than Woodward Park. I personally don't think it's that much but who knows. I think the majority of people think it's closer to 20 seconds, but who knows.

Colorado state course is legit, those hills will kill you. It seems conservative to put it at a 5/10 difficulty, I would guess that it is more of a 7/10. Utah teams still look better than CO as a whole, but I think they might be closer in ability than I originally thought at the state of the season.

—CO girls look fantastic, Utah boys slightly better

The craziest part about that course is that it's actually the easier version. The old bear creek course had a massive hill (big willis) that ate people up and ruined teams title hopes. The old course is probably a whole minute slower. I don't think any guy ever broke 16:00. They changed course because apparently NXR didn't consider course difficulty when choosing championship division teams and colorado teams got punished for running the state course.