Subway Surfers wrote:
fisky wrote:
Iowa has 41 pledged and 8 unpledged delegates. It looks like Bernie will get 12 out of 41. As long as Biden, Warren, and Pete stay in the race, they'll keep Sanders below 50% in delegates.
Polls show Biden ahead in Nevada and South Carolina. He's second to Sanders in California. Unless Biden implodes, he's and Pete are going to keep Sanders below 50% in pledged delegates by the DNC convention.
Once it goes to the 2nd ballot at the convention, Sanders is toast.
And the hardcore of Sanders voters will go Green and Trump will win again, probably more comfortably.
Good call on the contested convention, that is looking a certainty.
The big question is whether Warren will drop out before Super Tuesday and back Bernie or Klobuchar. Warren's internal folks have been saying leading up to the primary that the weaker of the two in the early primary results will need to drop out and throw their support to the stronger to avoid a centrist like Biden or Bloomberg from winning. No one thought that Klobuchar would be competitive back then. So, Warren could throw a wrench in to it by dropping out and teaming up with Klobuchar (VP spot seems likely to have an all female ticket).
But it may not matter at all if Bernie can capitalize on states with more minorities and younger voters. Klobuchar is about negative 10% with minorities. Biden is sinking in the polls and his minority backers will not be going to Warren, Buttigieg or Klobuchar. They will either vote for Bernie, Bloomberg or sit it out.
So, after super Tuesday, Bernie could have a big haul from California and we could see Warren and Biden drop out. That would set up Bernie for a strong plurality at the convention if not an all out win. If it goes to a second ballot at the convention and the nomination is taken from Bernie, that will be the end of the Democratic party. If Bernie has a very weak plurality, it will be a circus at the convention as there will definitely be an effort to take the nomination away from him. Bloomberg's sole reason for being in the race is to collect delegates and send them to whoever is the 2nd place moderate at the convention to try to keep Bernie out.